General Middle East & North Africa Thread

Iran and all the gulf monarchies really (cept Oman, which is neutral, being neither Sunni nor Shia Muslim). Saudi Arabia just happens to be the biggest of them so they do most of the rallying.

Egypt is mostly against Iran but noncommital to the cold war. Turkey is a third pole.

edited 24th Sep '14 5:12:39 PM by FFShinra

What's the story between the Iran-Saud rivalry?

Iran is a Shiite nation. SA is not only Sunni, but host to the most holy site in Islam. Their clients are fighting a civil war. They compete for status and influence. 'Nuff said?

Thats part of it, but not the whole thing. The Arabs and Persians have been competing with each other since the pre-Islamic times.

Iraq used to be one of the contenders for the regional hegemon position (heck, they fought with Iran and the war ended in a stalemate), but then the First Gulf War happened.

Persians, Arabs, Turks... Hmmm, what about Kurds? What happens if they get Kurdistan?

That depends on lots of things. Which Kurdish areas it controls (Syrian Kurdistan might be able to break away, but the Turkish and Iranian Kurdistans are unlikely to), what level of recognition its gets internationally, how easily it can set up a line to the coast for oil exports, the level of international assistance it gets, the amount of competence its founding government shows, if ISIS is defeated properly or just ground down into becoming a low level insurgency.

Well, what impact would an independent Turkish Kurdistan have on the region?

Well Turkey would be broken as a state, they'd have to be to allow that to happen. So Turkey is pretty much gone as a regional player, you might see a third wing emerge in the Iran-Saudi conflict, similar to the non-aligned movement during the Cold War, you'd see Iraq worrying about the possibility of losing it's bit of Kurdistan (assuming that the Iraqi Kurds wouldn't just strait up breakaway and join with Turkish Kurdistan).

<_< "Turkey" would just lose a chunk. That wouldn't negate the rest, you know.

And, frankly... it hasn't often had that chunk as a united part. Nope: Turkey won't die if it loses that. Although, it'll make enough noise to make most in the region want to shut it up by using a brick to the face.

Honestly if the Kurds get even one of the regions independant, it will make it harder for the other regions to do so. If the Iraqi Kurds and the Syrian Kurds team up and then seize land south, they might get equivalent area of Kurdistan....just slightly south. But even if they just make what they have now independant, it will suck up any international support for breaking up Turkey.

Truth.

edited 28th Sep '14 3:26:09 PM by FFShinra

It's not so much that it would die if it lost that chunk, but that for it to lose that chunk it would have to have died.

A Turkey that couldn't maintain its control over Turkish Kurdistan would be one that has lost a hell of a lot of regional power.

I don't see Turkey giving up its bit of Kurdistan unless it has to, and it would have to be in a real state for it to have to.

Spanish diplomat stabbed to death in Sudan.

... Spanish? You'd think they'd target a more important country's diplomat, especially one with more relevancy (whether real or apparent) to Sudan itself and its recent troubles.

Agreed. Still, nobody seems to know if it was the action of a lone person or something that was planned in advance.

edited 29th Sep '14 7:29:50 AM by Quag15

Maybe intrigue and espionage?

I blame a woman ;)

Iran executes someone.

The crime:

I feel the Kurds should get their own country. They've been abused en masse by a hell of a lotta nations as it is. There are a ton of problems that come with that, though, but I've always believed that Iraq needs to Balkanize anyway. Iranian Kurds won't leave, Syrian Kurds should leave, and Turkish Kurds should get more autonomy and integrate with their southern counterparts before breaking officially.

edited 29th Sep '14 2:04:48 PM by Sledgesaul

The Turkish Kurds are starting to integrate with the Turks at this point. In anycase, better to get some of their land than try for all of it, which will be impossible for the foreseeable future. Syria and Iraq ain't bad, especially when both of those holdings have been increased.

Do you see any major shifts in the regional makeup of the Mideast?

Turkish Kurds will probably integrate into Turkey, and those who won't will probably move south if Iraq balkanizes.

Iranian Kurdistan: Not happening on pain of even more gunfire than Turkish Kurdistan.

Syrian Kurdistan: Depends on whether Syria weathers the ISIS storm; sadly, the outlook for Assad is pretty rosy.

Iraqi Kurdistan: In everything but name, they're already independent, and I doubt that anyone would actually object if they ended up independent once ISIS was gone.

This is what's left of the Syrian Kurds. The central Kurdish towns (Ayn al-Arab or "Kobane") are surrounded by the Islamic State, while the western chunk (Afrin) is holding off rebel forces in green (Assad is red). The western cone is right next to the Iraqi Kurds, so I think they should merge.

edited 30th Sep '14 4:49:19 PM by Sledgesaul

"White House exempts Syria airstrikes from tight standards on civilian deaths" Was this the article you meant to link to?

Wait, what does that mean? We're, like, allowing civilian deaths, or...? o.0