Elections in Zimbabwe

So once again we've had a round of election in Zimbabwe and the winner in Robert Mugabe and Zanu-PF (or so they claim). There have been different reactions from around the world (and inside Zimbabwe) so far. With the African Union claiming that the elections were "free, honest and credible", the Zimbabwe Prime Minister/Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai calling them a "huge farce", the Zimbabwe Election Support Network called the election "seriously compromised" and saying that almost a million people were unable to vote, the EU has called the elections peaceful while refusing to say if they were fair.

Election observers were allowed into the country, but not western ones, instead the election observers have been from the African Union and Southern African Development Community.

So what are people's thoughts so far?

Links for those who want them: [1] [2]

I saw a BBC report on this. I can't recall the name or qualifications of the expert they had on, so take this with a grain of salt.

According to this report the observers were mostly in the cities, whereas most of the population live spread around the rural areas, which were not properly observed.

There was also something about the results from each smaller community (village or so) being tracked, with Mugabe's supporters pledging to punish areas where the result wasn't what they wanted.

Voting in the major cities was probably fair, as was the actual vote count, as these were observed by AU observers (and I don't have any reason to say that they're less reliable than EU observers, though preferably you'd have observers from around the world for each election.) The alleged corruption would've happened in the rural areas, and most of it before the actual election.

Zanu-PF are good at this: many in the urban areas still have rural roots. By threatening/ bribing aunts, uncles, grandparents and cousins, they'll snaggle a fair chunk of the votes in the cities, on top of the more obvious corruption where the observers aren't looking.

It's been their MO for years to totally abuse the Clan-system to make votes look "fair", if you don't know much about Clans. <_<

Mugabe is basically the Putin of Africa - technically legitimately elected, but rules through fear, oppression and being an abomination of a human being. Just last week he declared that all gays should be beheaded, and his rule has been horrifically racist. His land seizure policy is basically designed to hound white people out of the country.

John Kerry: Elections in Zimbabwe the result of a ‘deeply flawed process’

He's not the only one:

William Hague voices 'grave concerns'

It's just talk, always is. I'm not saying we should send the troops in or anything, but Mugabe knows fine well he can say and do absolutely anything and get away with it. The man is basically untouchable, and the sanctions against him don't have any impact on him.

Since they hurt the people and since Zanu-PF make up the election results they can't do anything about it.

Mugabe is covered so long as South Africa keeps backing him up. The moment they don't, he's done.

I find it quite frustrating that different election bodies have such different results. Seemed to me to be a case of the AU and SADC not _wanting_ to find irregularities - they want to preserve the status quo. Presumably the most critical group, the ZESN, intends to release the evidence of vote tampering, though Zanu-PF and friendly organisations will either call it manufactured or just ignore them, again to maintain the old duffer they love so he can die on his throne.

Speaking of, I see a repeat of what happened in Venezuela. The increasingly decrepit though constantly praised Mugabe will gradually stop appearing in public. It won't be clear if he's even still alive for a while then at the most politically opportune time they'll announce he's snuffed it and call for new elections. Some total unknown Zanu-PF loyalist will rise up and represent Mugabe's legacy, bring up his name and deeds constantly and using the deceased's charisma in place of his own. Although the election will of course be rigged this guy will get millions of real votes too out of sympathy for Mugabe and the effects of his cult of personality.

Dunno what would happen, say, a decade later though. You can only lickspittle a deceased dictator-hero without having your own personality for so long.

edited 4th Aug '13 12:34:05 AM by betaalpha

There's a fair few radicals in South Africa who would like to see Mugabe's program of white expropriation adopted there, like Julius Malema.

Yup. As I said: Clan is a factor. <_< And, that crosses into Tribes and which has representation in what proportion on each body (and, which cross-Tribal machinations and briberies are in operation this time). This is often stronger than ideology, by the way. Or, borders, even. <_<

Some Clans within a Tribe have closer bonds with Clans in another Tribe than they do with a neighbouring Clan of the same Tribe (depends on who stole what how many years ago and who insulted who, too ). So, that can complicate things, even though, technically, Tribe is supposed to come first (however, new tribes can be formed if a clan or clans deliberately spilt to form a new one — or even a sub-tribe — which has a whole basket of different conventions and rules). The individual Clan-connection with Kings/ Great Chiefs is also important.

edited 4th Aug '13 6:16:43 AM by Euodiachloris

Does the government sanction this whole clan system thing? Or is it just a societal thing?

Which government? It crosses borders... <looks confused> In some ways, presidents and parliaments are seen as additional "clans" and "chiefs" (the concept of "chief" is also often something people outside don't get, either — it's a very feudal set-up that encompasses "chief of chiefs" and "kings")... nothing more or less. Ones that you need to work around, more often than not.

However much colonisation and nationalisation crippled the previous ways of doing things, they never actually died. They... adapted and folded into the democracies and other systems that were tacked on to them. -_- This is something few outside Africa or the Near East even consider for a second. Which bugs the crap out of me, as it's a major function of how all the clan-based societies work.

Take a look at Mandela's background some time: you'll spot why he could negotiate with multiple Tribes and Clans, yet be low enough on various totem-poles for his sacrifice to have little blowback for those in more secure tribal positions, yet high enough to carry clout across a number of branches (his background is fairly cosmopolitan on both his father's and mother's sides). <shrugs>

If you for one moment think this was not something calculated on the Clan level when he started protesting, you haven't been paying attention. <_<

edited 4th Aug '13 3:42:15 PM by Euodiachloris

This all seems like a fair bit of nothing. Mugabe is 89. He's bound to fall to the wayside eventually, and much like Hugo Chavez to Nicolas Maduro, the death of the original figurehead leads to a vast weakening of the party's political base. I'd give it two, three years tops before he bites it

People have been saying this for years. In fact some did not understand why he ruined his legacy when he was in his early 80s in order to stay in power for "two or three more years".

That being said every year, no every day he stays in power is too long for his country.

No one outside will do anything about it though, and locals would rather go with what they've known for 33 years than try their hand at chaos.

Zuma has stated that SA accepts the results, so its clear nothing will happen regionally.

The locals are tortured and murdered if they raise a hand in protest - especially white people, who routinely have their land confiscated if they're found to own any. We can only hope that Mugabe's eventual death will not lead to an immediate successor who just does exactly the same thing.

There are plenty of wannabes in Zanu-PF. It'll be a bloodbath between 'em, though. <_< With luck, they could wind up shooting each other in their feet.

Corrected.

Then it'll be time for the West (us British) to swoop in and clean it up.

edited 5th Aug '13 6:02:11 AM by Greenmantle

Unfortunately, such struggles seldom limit themselves to the feet in question. Such a free-for-all could well go full Liberia, with grievous civilian fallout from factional violence. The probable best-case scenarios are that a) a single Mugabe successor eventually loses power legitimately to a single non-insane successor, or b) South Africa finally takes some responsibility for the mess it's enabled and cleans house with a multiregional allied force.

edited 5th Aug '13 6:06:05 AM by Jhimmibhob

Why do you think I said "with luck"?

Sometimes, the old attitude of "a people can weather a bad chief: but, a chief is still a chief" doesn't do Africa many favours. <_< It also carries over to President Evil. It also happens to be the reason why South Africa (and others) have taken such a back seat. The feeling always is "if there's nobody in a Tribe able to clean house, you just have to wait for time to do it for you". It bites. -_-

edited 5th Aug '13 6:15:57 AM by Euodiachloris