The NBA - basketball talk

The finals? Quite slim, since they'd likely have to beat the Clippers, Oklahoma City, and San Antonio (in that order, as I think OKC will end up in first place in the west). Remember, the playoffs are a best-of-seven at each round.

edited 7th Apr '12 7:57:15 PM by wanderlustwarrior

The sad, REAL American dichotomy

The Grizzlies are still a tough, playoff-level team, though. They beat the Heat and the Mavericks in two days, and they're on a winning streak.

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Of course they're a playoff level team, they're 5th in the West right now, so like 10th overall. But there's a big difference between playoff level and make it to the finals.

Do you know how the NBA playoff bracket works, series, home court and all that? You mentioned this was your first year as a fan. And even with the different structure of who you face, playoff basketball is a different animal from regular season basketball.

edited 7th Apr '12 8:43:43 PM by wanderlustwarrior

The sad, REAL American dichotomy

I've actually been meaning to learn about how the playoffs work. Care to elaborate?

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Let's use Chicago and New York for some of the examples, as they are currently 1st and 8th in the East (though I think Milwaukee will get 8th, which would help Chicago immensely due to it being the closest team to Chicago) as well as OKC for the west.

Okay, 8 teams from each conference make it to the playoffs, for 16 of the 32 teams in the league. There are 4 rounds to the playoffs: first round, conference semifinals, conference finals, and NBA Finals. Each round is a best of seven series (first team to get 4 wins against their opponent).

For the first 3 rounds (within the conference), the games are played: 2 games at the team with home court advantage*

, then 2 games at the team without it, then 1 at the team with, 1 at the other, and game 7 is at the team with home court advantage. This is a breakdown of 2-2-1-1-1 (2 in Chicago, 2 in New York, 1 in Chicago, 1 in New York, 1 in Chicago). In the NBA finals, it is instead 2-3-2 (2 in Chicago, 3 in Oklahoma City, 2 in Chicago). This is because back when they made this format, there were more NBA finals series of Lakers/Celtics, which meant teams would be flying across the country every couple days. This was expensive, inefficient and unhealthy. At the conference level, teams usually don't have to travel that far.

Home court advantage is determined by whoever has the best record, though there are a series of tiebreakers if that doesn't work: who won the regular season series, who has the best conference record, and who has the best division record. So Chicago losing its only game against OKC this year would be bad if they didn't end the season with the best record in the league.

In the first round, the 1st rank team (Chicago) in each conference faces the 8th (New York), as well as the matchups of 4/5, 2/7 and 3/6. Let's say the higher ranked team always won their series in this scenario. The second round would then be 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3. The final round would be 1 vs 2, and the NBA finals would be the 1 team on each side who won that.

This year shows us an interesting scenario. The playoff ranking has never really been only decided by a team's record (for one stupid reason or another). What it is is this: Each conference has 3 divisions. The 3 division leaders are guaranteed one of the top four spots in their conference. This was meant to reward teams that are the top of a good division, but it also penalizes teams that are second in a great division, and rewards teams that are first in a bad division. If the playoffs started today, Boston would be 4th in the east, despite having the 6th best record in the East. This is a slight help to them, as the middle of the Eastern conference is tightly packed together. However, this is a major problem for the team right behind them in their division, Philadelphia. Because, whoever doesn't win that division would be 7th instead of fourth, and would have to face Miami in the first round, then Indiana (a great, underrated team) in the second, then Chicago in the third. You want as easy a first round matchup as possible, because you don't want to break down early before you face your toughest opponents.

As for how play on the court changes:
Everything is on the line in the playoffs, so there's going to be a lot harder defense, some "fouls" won't be called by the refs, and whichever fouls are called, or turnovers are made, etc. could potentially sway the whole series. It's because of a lot of this that in basketball (and some other sports), there is the saying "defense wins championships". Defense is a more consistent, less lucky thing than offense, and while it isn't as glamorous, gets the job done better "any given Sunday Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday" (those are the days playoff games are usually on)
Because you're playing the same team several times in a row, fortune is on the side of whichever team has momentum in their series. It's a lot harder for a lower team to carry momentum against a higher team, because the higher teams will have experience, bandwagon fans, the media, and slight favor with the refs on their side. Also, the home court team will have slight favor with the refs on their side. So it'll be exceptionally hard for Memphis to win their second round series against OKC, as OKC has done well all year, and has a lot of that favor going for them in the West.

edited 7th Apr '12 9:17:21 PM by wanderlustwarrior

The sad, REAL American dichotomy

Well, I said more than I thought I would. But, you said elaborate.

As I said way back in the first post, I intend to split the Basketball page, to make it better organized and easier to read. I think I'll do that next week, if anyone would like to help. I'll likely include this description of the playoffs.

edited 7th Apr '12 9:14:03 PM by wanderlustwarrior

The sad, REAL American dichotomy

Thanks for that. It really sounds like a grueling hell for the average team.

Personally, if the Heat don't win, I'd rather have Thunder take their first championship. Now, I'd prefer a Heat-Thunder Finals, especially given how badass their last match was.

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Yeah, there are no Cinderellas in the NBA. These people are playing for validation of their careers, and it's structures so the better team usually wins. It's a different beast then the regular season.

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Which teams would you like to see in the Finals?

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Chicago/OKC.

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Definitely a match-up for the decade, if you ask me.

What are your predictions for the playoffs?

edited 8th Apr '12 12:55:00 AM by Serocco

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Holy shit! The Knicks, withotu Stoudemrie and Lin, beat the Bulls with Rose, by one point!

Carmelo, the guy fans joke as bad luck for the Knicks, scored 43 points.

edited 8th Apr '12 3:37:51 PM by Serocco

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One game is just one game, and I should point out Rose was visibly rusty and slow.

However, it does hurt chances of home court a bit, and of Milwaukee, the preferred first round opponent for the bulls, missing the playoffs.

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Why are the Bucks the ideal opponent for the Bulls?

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Think geograpically: Milwaukee is about an hour drive from Chicago.

• There would be tons of Bulls fans at Milwaukee games to make them feel at home.
• As someone in division, the teams have plenty of practice against each other.
• They dont have to take tiring flights, and can thus get more rest between games, or have a little more time to look at game tapes and learn from mistakes.

The sad, REAL American dichotomy

And as such, their games are closer (in points and skill) than, say, Miami vs Detroit.

edited 8th Apr '12 5:37:19 PM by Serocco

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Funny you should say that. I'm actually also a fan of Detroit. After a terrible season last year, and a slow start this one, They've really stepped it up and are actually much better than they seem.

Losing today's game was slightly better for the Pistons than winning, as it puts them in a better position for the draft lottery.

To be honest, I haven't followed Memphis at all, because I'm completely apathetic to them.

edited 8th Apr '12 5:58:51 PM by wanderlustwarrior

The sad, REAL American dichotomy

Their last game against the Miami was a repeat of what happened between Miami and Memphis, but I can tell the Pistons are looking forward to more momentum.

I wouldn't count Memphis out. They knocked the Spurs out last year in the first round and took Thunder to seven games, without their top player, Rudy Gay. In this season, they've won eight of their last 10 games, including victories over Los Angeles, Miami and Oklahoma City. Four out of the last eight victories came against teams that have a better record and currently hold a higher seed in the playoff race than the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have beaten three of the top four teams in the West in the past ten games while averaging 96.4 points per game. I certainly don't like the Grizzlies, as I'm pushing for Miami or Thunder to win the championship, but good lord.

edited 11th Apr '12 8:11:47 PM by Serocco

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The Bulls won the Number 1 Seed. Any chance that they'll be in the finals, or is it still too early?

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Too early to tell.

Also, they've had the best record in the league for most of the season. It is at this point that the only way for Miami to pass them, as Chicago has 6 games left, would be for Chicago to go 3-3 or worse, and lose to Miami, and Miami doesn't lose another game. Oklahoma City or San Antonio could pass them for home-court advantage in the finals, which is more likely than Miami doing so, but still unlikely.

It'd be easier for the Heat to pass Chicago, but it still depends on Chicago losing 2 or more other games.

edited 15th Apr '12 11:44:14 PM by wanderlustwarrior

The sad, REAL American dichotomy

If the Heat beats the Bulls in their next two games (and vice versa), what then (for both)?

It all depends on the next few games, then. I'm hoping for my team to meet yours or the Thunder in the finals.

edited 15th Apr '12 11:57:48 PM by Serocco

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I'll make a list of the teams that I think are playoff-level, and see if you agree - the Bulls, the Heat, the Thunder, the Grizzlies, the Spurs, the Lakers, the Celtics, the Mavericks, the Knicks and the Pistons. None of these are ranked, though, so take the order with a grain of salt.

edited 18th Apr '12 7:59:18 AM by Serocco

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You missed the Pacers and the Hawks on the east at least.

As a pistons fan, I would not say they were playoff ready, but they can be there in a year. They had a bad start this year, but they really clicked after.

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Okay, out of all those, which three are championship-level? I'm taking the Thunder, the Bulls and the Heat (if they fix their current problems).

I honestly see Memphis as the Spanner in the Works for every other team. They're definitely powerful, and they have a lot of potential, but I think many overlook them in favor of seeing the Thunder as the Wild Card.

Also, James is finally playing at MVP caliber. Wade might be in trouble, but if James, Bosh and the others step up, things will be good for the Heat in the long run. Plus, we're not the Smug Snake we were back last season. I like this new Character Development.

edited 18th Apr '12 6:31:20 PM by Serocco

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I discovered the formula of the Knicks. Under D'Antoni, they had a spread-em-out style of play, with Lin dominating the ball and creating scoring chances via pick-and-roll. By Contrast, Anthoyn and Smith are more about isolation shots - they couldn't deal with the extra teamwork. After Lin and Stoudemire were injured, Woodson took over the isolation plays with Carmelo leading the way.

Now that Stoudemire's returning as the power foward, and Anthony's back as the small forward, they'll have to find out how to divide the shots - which they struggled within the past. As if the Knicks couldn't get any more problematic; they're a team that's fundamentally incompatible.

edited 20th Apr '12 8:00:51 AM by Serocco

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