Could Israel Go Nuclear on Iran by this Spring?

are you under the (wrong) impression that Iran getting nukes is an Israeli problem as opposed to an international one ?

Israel is far from the only one concerned about Iran getting Nukes in this neighborhood, and IS the only one with a credible counterstrike option that makes an Iranian strike against it unlikely. the Gulf states, on the other hand...

edited 14th Nov '11 12:05:55 PM by bladeofdarkness

You mean the Gulf States that (I think) have American nuke stationed in their territory and have made it clear that if Iran does a nuke program so will they?

Not that I disagree with the assertion that Iran getting Nukes is an international problem. It's just that the main reason it's an international problem is that even though we aren’t top of their (viable) target list we would still care if they started nuking random nebulous. Plus there’s the possibility of them selling nukes to terrorists and nobody (apart from terrorists) wants to see that happen.

As for the actual topic of if Israel would nuke Iran. I don’t think they are that stupid. Now launch a massive air attack that would cause high levels of civilian damage along with taking out the nuke facilities? Yere I could see them doing that. Actually nuking someone? No. Mainly because of the complete shitstorm that would be the international reaction. It would probably turn even the friendliest nations against Israel and probably convince those with only a mild dislike to consider funding an invasion.

Well there's no point to Israel nuking Iran so it won't happen and if they did, it'd result in the international community probably lifting their hand from the area and no longer touching it. How Israel would fare under such a scenario is hard to say but it's doubtful it'd get to that point. The Israeli people wouldn't stand for unprovoked unilateral nuclear attacks on other states, even the Persian one.

Once again, in b4 "Israel would totally own entire world alone".

Gulf states don't have nukes stationed in their territory. also, if you don't see the problem with the entire Gulf area (where most of the worlds Oil comes from) starting a nuclear arms race, then your views on what does and doesn't make for an international problem are somewhat odd.

also, pretty sure Iran doesn't station its nuclear resource facilities in the middle of populated areas (thats insane one multiple levels).

the international community can't lift their hands, that area is where most of the Oil comes from.

No, it's where most of Europe gets its oil. USA can stand to lose the entire mideast and be fine. It's a completely inaccurate fact to keep stating that. The country where USA gets most of its oil from? The oppressive monarchy of Canada. Next up (okay I didn't memorise the list), is like Venezuela, led by "super anti-American" Chavez who basically does everything the US wants him to do anyway. If the US stepped up its clean energy program, it can write off the whole mideast.

edited 14th Nov '11 12:44:10 PM by breadloaf

He sent aid to Gaddafi, he does not listen to us. He just sells us his oil because theres no one else to sell to that easily.

who says i'm talking about the U.S only. the west means Europe just as much as it means America.

but thats missing the point, which was that a nuclear arms race in this part of the world would be a very bad thing, and you don't need me to explain it to you.

edited 14th Nov '11 12:49:07 PM by bladeofdarkness

Hold it Blade are you claiming that the Iranian government isn't insane?

I will take your word that the Gulf States don't have nukes there (I admit I'm not expert). As for an arms race when did I say I didn't think it would be horrible if the entire Middle East started getting nukes? The Middle East getting nukes would just make things even worse than they already are.

Since the international community would be lifting its hands against Israel (since in this hypothetical scenario Israel is the one who started the nuking) and they aren’t the big oil exporter I fail to see how the international community couldn't do some serious damage if Israel starting nuking people.

Edit: I can agree to the idea that a nuclear arms race anywhere (but especially in the Middle East) would be a terrible thing for the world at large.

edited 14th Nov '11 12:50:56 PM by Silasw

Israel isn't going to start nuking people for no reason.

the problem is the nuclear arms race that would be caused by Iran getting nukes, and the effects of such a thing on the mid-east and the world.

and Iran's gov ARE insane, but not in the gibbering lunatic who can't keep his hands off the red button type of insane.

they are insane in the "delusions of grandeur and pretenses of powerdom" type of insane, which is far more dangerous in the long run.

You know, on the topic of shitty mid-east governments, I don't think I can really rally my support behind any particular nation.

you don't rally your support behind governments, you rally your support behind COUNTRIES.

you pick the societies that best reflect your view on the world in social, economical, political, religious (or not), cultural, and other fields, and you support said societies.

no country or nation is perfect including your own, but some are farther along the path the others.

thats who you support.

I assumed discussions about Iran getting nukes and how that would effect things would be better placed in the discussion about Iran getting nukes rather than in the topic about if there was a serious possibility of Israel nuking Iran to stop it's program. I’m more than happy to discuss either one but I’m now not sure where to discuss.

@Doma Doma - And just as conscientious objectors would get shot for going against a fatwa (they wouldn't actually, since there are many in the Guardian Council who take those seriously and thus the Supreme Leader would have to change the fatwa regardless), the military and anyone else involved would deny, out of survival, the use of a nuke in a first strike situation.

Once again, do not try to tell me MAD-induced state interest doesn't apply because of religion and then turn around and tell me the religious fatwas don't apply because of state interest. The truth of the matter is there is state interest and then religious rhetoric that doesn't count for much in practice (all their meddling in the middle east has more to do with them being jingoistic Persians than Islamists, and would have likely done the same under the Shah, just more subtly like the Saudi Kings).

considering that Israel remains to this day the only country in history to be believed to have developed nukes and yet keep it a secret, i'd say there is little chance of Israeli suddenly going nuclear for no reason.

so this thread has no real purpose.

edited 14th Nov '11 1:05:10 PM by bladeofdarkness

Not quite true. India also kept both their atomic and thermonuclear programs secret until they themselves let the world know via test demonstrations.

Israel has reportedly had nukes since before 1967... and still doesn't admit it.

not the same.

Did South Africa reveal their program before they gave it up? Also the fact that we know Israel has nukes rather defeats the secret part of it. For all we know there are countries out there with secret nuclear stockpiles. We just you know. Don't know about them because they are well... secret.

Yeah, point of having "secret" nukes is that they are, you know, secret.

Oh, and now I am feeling nostalgic. I see ancient ad. It's in Windows XP pop up window that says I am 10 000th visitor and I need to press button to get my prize! </derail>

Well if Israel wanted a nuclear deterrent, it being secret would be pointless. Their arsenal scope and size being secret is very useful though especially if the government is unsure if it has full nuclear capacity to retaliate properly.

edited 14th Nov '11 3:27:53 PM by breadloaf

They've "accidently" mentioned it several times already.

@blade - India's had the capability since the 50s, developed completely indigenously (as opposed to given to them by the French). And even AFTER 1974, no one realized the Indians had the capability for H-bombs til the 1998 tests. CIA got raked over coals for not knowing back then for it too. On the other hand the world has known Israel has been nuclear capable for many decades now. Being an official secret doesn't matter if its an open one.

And Iran isn't quite the country able to launch an overwhelming strike on the Western countries. Half a dozen missiles, maybe, and even then, they don't master the techs for an ICBM. If they launch, we lose Greece (okay, who in the back yelled "Fuck yeah, Iran!"?), and in retaliation, Euro countries enlarge the Indian Ocean by a few hundred miles.

We can deal with that, no matter what some here think. Of course, Israel will have some problems dealing with a nuke-country completly at range, especially when the same half-dozen nukes can utterly destroy this geographically tiny country. But, hey, they told Europe to fuck off their business, so I say "deal with your own nuke race".

Don't worry, we'll help the survivors and stock some iodine pills for them.