Ongoing European Debt Crisis

Your experience is further evidence of the destructive effects of austerity. Far from making the nations in question leaner and more efficient, it tears down their social structures, their faith in government, and forces their best and brightest out. It leaves behind hollow shells. It is an unmitigated disaster.

That's even happening in the countries that are receiving the immigrants, such as the UK and Germany...

I wonder what king of implications the possibile independence of Catalonia would have for the Spanish and European economy.

Apropos of anything in particular? More or fewer nations won't make a difference to the fundamental problems with the Eurozone.

No but the resulting political instability and uncertainity following a Spanish break-up could be a serious, considering that the Euro-zone is finally on the road of recovery.

All we need. One more nation, one more frontier, one more separation, one more reason for two-sided discrimination in this divided world...

edited 5th Oct '15 7:23:29 PM by MeetTheNewBoss

Right, I'm back.

While the elections are more of a matter for the European Politics thread, I can address it in a succint form.

Anyway, the results are as follows (the results of the immigrant vote will only be revealed in 8 days from now - 4 seats are yet to be attributed):

PPD/PSD.CDS-PP - the government coalition - PAF^note Portugal á Frente - Portugal Ahead - of what? I don't know, and neither do you 36,83% - 99 seats

PS 32,38% - 85 seats

B.E. 10,22% - 19 seats

PCP-PEV (CDU) 8,27% - 17 seats

PPD/PSD (the bigger party in the coalition runs alone in Madeira) 1,51% - 5 seats

PAN (the party of the animals and nature) 1,39% - 1 seat

The most significant things here are the relative success of the BE (Left Bloc), since it's their best results in the history of the party (which is only 16 years-old), in terms of the number of seats (their previous best was 16 seats, back in 2009). They recovered what they had lost and gained a few, thanks to the competent participation of Mariana Mortágua in the BES inquiry and how the most important figure of the party commission, Catarina Martins, held herself quite well in the debates (especially against Paulo Portas, of the CDS-PP). I voted for them, btw. I hope they can sustain their gains and build up something in the future. Their message was become more moderated in recent times, which contributed a fair bit as well, while also weathering their European association with Syriza. They still need to present a fully coherent economic manifesto, though (Mariana Mortágua will be taking care of that, since she has a Master's degree in Economics).

The Left Block and the CDU might be available to form a coalition with the Socialist Party, but, well...

The Socialist Party are a bunch of cunts. António Costa is basically the puppet of José Sócrates (and if you've been following his trial and arrest (now house arrest - he left the prison), you know how much importance that guy holds), and was massively appalling. Their campaign was also very populistic, very unclear, with stupid moments like the use of this image to attack the government coalition◊ and the party seems to be divided over lots fo stuff (I also blame the dinosaurs of the party, besides the Socratists). Still, they've managed to gain some seats, which is due to the constant switch in most elections between the two major parties.

The government coalition are, well the coalition. They lost a few seats to the left parties, and their reassurance that austerity worked and Portugal is recovering sounded very hollow. The debt-to-GDP ratio is still around the 130%, and the immigration (which doesn't merely include the brain drain - the brain drain is neither too high nor too low - but it is still growing, @Logo) levels have increased. Unemployment is still around the 13/14%. If nothing improves significantly in 2 years, I'll be leaving this country, like quite a few friends and colleagues of mine.

The Party for Animals and Nature^note their official name is People-Animals-Naturegot their first seat (they're only 5 years-old).

The parties led by dissidents of the Left Bloc (Livre and Agir) didn't elect anyone (they're very recent parties, and mostly confined to the big cities and the university areas, while PAN is more evenly spread out).

Our method of d'Hondt is very biased towards established parties, which makes new players break and become irrelevant or extinct quite often. On the other hand, certain non-established parties have made slightly worrying gains in terms of votes (PCTP/MRPP, the Maoist party whose campaign message can be summed up by their memetic phrase: "Death to traitors"; and PNR (the far-right anti-immigration party). If the situation improves, they'll lose any votes they gain and continue to be basically irrelevant).

Abstention is still high, which is partly due to the constant petty excuses ("it's raining/it's sunny/[insert football club] plays today/my vote matters nothing") and due to an unwillingness to clean up the million of people in the electoral registry who are either dead, unregistered emmigrant, or confined to beds due to old age).

No, it's mostly our perennial resignation and fatalism. Any energy and willingness to fight back that there was 4 years ago has been practically lost (the Left Block and the Communists/Greens coalition CDU are the only ones who can still muster something, but they're fairly pleased with the results - they might not have the required ambition to govern).

Also, that Spiegel article doesn't tell the whole truth. Most young enterpreneurs either go bust after 2, 3 years or survive on a ultra-tiny budget, while avoiding professional interns as much as possible (because it is too costly, you see).

@New Boss: The Catalonian issue is not a recent one. It is rooted in history and even culture itself. The resentment towards Castillians was always there, at least since the 17th century. Like it or not, there will always be frontiers and separations.

The Basques are also considering the possibility of independence. Nothing official so far, though.

@Psyclone: Good luck, man. Many friends of mine share that feeling. This inquiry shows that half of the qualified people are not considering a return to Portugal.

Which is fucking depressing.

(Did a couple of edits to add a few things)

edited 6th Oct '15 10:47:17 AM by Quag15

That is a pretty good analysis of the whole situation. I also heard at one point our deficit for this year was the same as in 2011, which isn't too uplifting, either. I personally voted PAF, but it was mostly a vote against PS. I agree BE likely had the best campaign.

The thing you said about small businesses is what I already suspected. So many articles and initiatives regarding start-ups, but most don't seem to stick. I know plenty of interns willing to work for free, too, since experience for next to no pay is better than unemployment (the government helps to pay for interns' salaries under certain circumstances, but it's no more than 200-300€ per month).

Personal anecdote on the situation: ^{I'll just put it here, might be too long}  My father has owned a small Architecture company for nearly 30 years, now, and here's what I've seen in recent years: the construction market has taken a steep dive since 2011 due to irresponsible legislations (some of which European) that either raised the costs of construction projects to ridiculous degrees, or stifled whatever little demand that could still exist, and it's the young upstart companies who suffer the most (their inexperience inadvertently worsens the problem, too, due to complicated reasons). A few Norms and Addendums addressing the issues would suffice, but since it's easy to blame the slow market on the crisis, very little being done about it, which gives me no confidence on our ability to recover. My father resorted to opening an office in Mozambique to keep the business afloat, like many others who also survived by expanding the business overseas (so, bad news for young entrepreneurs who are unlikely to do that).

Me, I'm already searching for jobs abroad. Even the local businesses want to send people to other countries.

I thought abstention levels were roughly 40% this year? I thought it was impressive, considering it usually goes beyond 50% (which might mean they finally started that clean-up).

Well, not exactly. There was a slight decrease (I'm going by the Eurostat - maybe other sources can confirm this, like OECD) in terms of government deficit, from -7.4% to -4.5% (a decrease of -2% in four years is not much of a consolation, though). I think it was due to a relaxation of the austerity measures and some other factors I'm currently not thinking about in detail. However, there are still cuts going on in some vital areas, which makes me feel we are still in a post-austerity phase (rather than non-austerity phase).

Indeed. Not only that, but also the fact that small businesses and companies (like your father's company, which is a relevant example - I've also heard from friends of my family who were architects and left the business because there was nothing in that area for them anymore here) are pretty much bound to either expand overseas or either "get constantly sick" or perish. I hope your father's office is keeping things afloat decently so far.

As for me, I'll be getting back into the job search at the end of this month (or even earlier, if I deliver my master's degree's report quickly). The job offers here have been generally insufficient (for my area, at least, since there are parts of it which are saturated), so, yeah, I'll be looking towards Iceland, Norway or Denmark (a fair few friends of mine are living in the latter, in fact). Or even Ireland (though I'm not sure if they've improved significantly in these past few years).

The abstention in 2011 was 42%. This year it was around 43%. The things are kinda samey (I also suspect that there are plenty of young folks out in Europe who are not registered, due to the bureaucratic mess and even some lazyness (for lack of a better word) that pervades the consulates).

And to think I voted for one of the government parties in 2011. I was so naive about austerity back then.

Yeah, I can see your point. Better the current devil than the previous one, so to speak (I never liked PS, anyway).

edited 6th Oct '15 4:54:36 PM by Quag15

If it makes you feel any better, I, too, supported Papandreou in 2009...

Sorry to hear about such a large percentage of absentation. It reached 43,4% here in Greece, too. I think it reflects the amount of disillusionment with the current political status quo and the dead end that we have reached. People lose faith in everyone, so they vote for none.

It's also surprising to hear that the level of absentation in Portugal is literally the same to ours despite it doing a much better job than Greece in recovering.

edited 6th Oct '15 5:06:31 PM by LogoP

OECD seems to confirm that more or less.

Couldn't PS and BE coalition together? They'd have more than the ruling coalition.

@Logo: Ouch, sorry to hear that. It makes feel a bit better (at least Paulo Portas does not have a political dinasty - his now deceased brother was part of the BE, so, they were politically opposite of one another).

Well, the abstention became generally high from the 90's onwards - in 2002 (which was a more prosperous year, relatively speaking), for example, the absention was 39.5%. The crisis simply led to an increase in apathy and resignation.

The disillusionment and loss of faith in both our countries' politicians is probably related to political incompetence, lack of long-term planning and development and, more importantly, corruption.

@Mio: Well, it's confirmed then. Thank you for the link.

@Ogodei: Well... the thing is, the PS is pretty much an austerity-lite party (after all, they signed the troika memorandum with the current coalition). There's also the fact that:

• BE would want PS to take a more moderate stance (that is to say, away from the austerity-lite rhetoric) in regards to employment, social security, and salaries/wages. Both parties are gonna be intransigent in their positions, unless a spectacular compromise happens. The BE might or might not reaffirm their stance on the renegotiation of the debt.
• PS is not fond of BE, since the former considers the latter to be an extreme-left party (in the early 2000's, they would be right - since BE was very confrontational back then, especially in their roots - but not so much nowadays).
• Regardless of either coalition, it would still be a minority government. And, when one looks at minority governments here, they tend to not last long. The first major test for the government coalition will happen when discussing the 2016 state budget.

Both the BE and the CDU^note Communists + Greens, in case anyone didn't know are, in any case, receptive to a possible coalition. The problem is (or seems to be) with the PS.

edited 6th Oct '15 5:57:44 PM by Quag15

Architecture is a dead-end career option right now, unless you wish to move abroad. Very disheartening.

I'm still looking abroad, too (should get easier, now that my Masters is actually finished), though my reasons are more personal and professional than economic: there is very little challenging and/or rewarding work here for Civil Engineers (slow market means no large-scale projects).

Huh, I could swear I saw 50%+ abstention rates. I was probably thinking of other types of elections, then.

My guess is, since you need to register a voting address more than two months beforehand, the folk who are between jobs at the time can't register a definite residence. It's also entirely possible that the folk working in remote places without easy access to Portuguese consulates simply can't do it (a friend of mine came back recently from Africa, and he said he'd need to spend 500-1000€ just to reach the nearest consulate and cast the vote)

Count me among the formerly-hopefuls, I remember voting for PSD back then, too, I thought they had a better plan. Despite everything, they did do a few things right at least, alongside their blunders.

Meanwhile, PS right now seems petty in general, like they're more willing to undermine their opposition than to make any concrete decisions themselves. By me, they'd stay a decade off the government, force them to get their shit together.

edited 7th Oct '15 5:27:21 AM by JonnasN

It's not just easy access. Even in the UK, the consulates are quite slow and very bureaucratic (especially the Manchester consulate). I also suspect there's some extra rights (and maybe cronyism) left untouched which makes consulates look kinda complacent at times.

Well, things have just gotten interesting. Allow me to crosspost what I just wrote in the European Politics thread (for you and for everyone else).

So, now that you've read my crosspost (Ogodei, looks like you saw something I didn't a few posts ago), let's see:

• BE and PS have economists who reject the neo-classical orthodoxy (particularly Mariana Mortágua, from the BE);
• BE have agreed to drop some of the thornier issues and rhetoric in regards to the EU.

So, what could this hypothetical coalition do, econmically-wise, to make sure Portugal doesn't get kicked in the groin, like Greece did? We are in a slightly better position, though I could see an incoming 'pressure' from the markets and the rating agencies. The BE wants to focus on employment, pensions and wages, and I suspect some of the main PS guys right now are perfectly ok with it.

OK, I am from Portugal as well and this situation is starting to freak me out. I worry that we're going to be kicked out of the Euro and lose everything we have. We have a relative in Norway and we're thinking of starting to transfer money there in case things go bad. Should I be worried? My family does have somethings and I know that the will of the people and all that but we don't want to lose everything we have!

Not to put too fine a point on it, but getting out of the euro would be really good for you. Right now you're chained to a de facto gold standard, making it impossible for you to conduct meaningful fiscal or monetary policy to remedy your nation's financial imbalances.

Eternal austerity to enrich the German banks is not going to help.

edited 25th Oct '15 10:32:41 AM by Fighteer

Relax. First of all, you can't "kick" anyone out of the euro. There's no rule about such a thing. States can only leave voluntarily. So the worst thing can happen is the ECB stopping the flow of capital to a state, thus "forcing" it out of the Eurozone.

Now, if Greece wasn't forced out of the euro, there's no way in hell Portugal will ever be. Socialist govt. or not. Between the refugee crisis, Russia's agression and the financial crisis, the Union's current leadership has proven to be too chickenshit to ever take such risky/hard decisions.

Portugal would only have to be worried if Greece was kicked out.

Well, you never know how things turn out. If it's true what some German newspapers are reporting that some of Merkel's party members are wishing to replace her with Wolfgang Schäuble, if she does not change her approach on the refugee crisis, things could get interesting again.

Crossposting from the European Politics thread.

So, if the left-wing parties vote against the government coalition, what can we expect here in Portugal? Market turbulence/intimidation? Fourth bailout (or is it just a mere threat?); Government-in-management? Loss of confidence from Merkel and the big boys?

edited 10th Nov '15 7:21:55 AM by Quag15

It's hard to say. The debt crisis has been sort of lost in all the maundering over Middle-Eastern refugees. I've been hoping that a leftist government in one of the debtor nations would get its act together and break the consensus, but I have no idea what the outcome would be. It depends entirely on the political will that they can muster to fight through the punitive actions that would be taken against their country.

There might not be the will, especially as the Refugee Crisis has weakened Merkel's position. And there are other problems, such as what happens when it comes to David Cameron and the British EU Referendum — and in Catalonia.

edited 10th Nov '15 11:02:49 AM by Greenmantle

I cannot believe that the troika would passively relent on austerity measures after all the effort they've put into them no matter what distractions are occurring. Anyway, the way that the financial system of the Eurozone is constructed, active effort must be put into relieving debtor nations of their payment obligations.

edited 10th Nov '15 11:04:11 AM by Fighteer

Do you think it is possible the Euro might outlive the EU?