^ Correct.

Didn't work, though.

Oh, but unfortunately for the Japanese, the US is full of die-hard patriots, and they executed the first strike. The government is also beholden to those die-hard patriots, and FDR isn't a crumbly cookie, so much as he's a goddamned steel fist.

They were dead before they realized the extent of the damage they did. It's too bad Tora! Tora! Tora! didn't actually show a real quote, because it was true...

Just to clear some things up about Japan's capabilities. First, Japan was at the end of its supply lines when they attacked Pearl Harbor. That, in addition to aircraft losses, was why the fleet disengaged before launching a third strike on Pearl. Second, Japan literally did not have the firepower to destroy the base and shipyards at Pearl with a 6 carrier fleet. No fleet really knew at that time just how much power it took to accomplish a task like that. Third, many many analysts and historians have pointed out that the U.S. could have won the war with submarines by destroying Japan's merchant fleet. In fact we DID destroy Japan's merchant fleet eventually and we weren't particularly focusing on doing that. Japan could not have realistically, logically, or strategically sent a force to the West Coast. Even if they somehow managed to land a force large enough to pose a threat to more than the national guard, our subs would have had them out of ammunition within a day or two. The reality is that they should have ignored Pearl, the Phillipines and other American territories on December 7/8, 1941. Without that provocation, FDR would have been hard pressed to get popular support for the war.

edited 22nd Jan '13 6:28:47 AM by pontonius

Bit of a necro, ne?

While we're all up in the AU possibilities, I wonder what would have happened had Japan offered to fight the Russians for us. The big provocation to war no one talks about was the territorial squabbling between Japan and the States over the resources of Pacific Asia; they both wanted the riches of the Philippines and surrounding islands (rubber and coal IIRC). I wonder if Japan could have gotten a better deal if they held out until after the fall of Berlin, waited for the Cold War to flare up, and told Truman "Okay, we get the Phillipines, we sell you as much of their resources as you want at cheap prices, and we keep the Communists out (with a little help, please). Deal?" Would have been an easy sell, I'd wager.

Or, as soon as Germany officially surrendered just keep marching east, because those assholes tried to invade Finland.

Because invsding Russia worked out so great in the past...

not a good idea◊

^^ The issue is far more complicated than "someone else tried it before".

I'm not saying it would be easy (heck, it might be exceedingly difficult), but "others didn't succeed, so you won't either" is something of a dubious position.

edited 22nd Jan '13 7:46:22 AM by Nohbody

What a generous concession to make

More an issue of not having had a reason to look into it all that closely. Even with that map you posted, though, it's not necessarily an automatic loss for the non-USSR Allied militaries.

That said, if Patton is at all an indication of what the real Patton thought about arming Germany again and then continuing to roll east, it's probably a good thing that they weren't real big on drug testing in 1945, because regardless of the outcome you'd have to be on crack to think it would be an easy job.

edited 22nd Jan '13 7:56:13 AM by Nohbody

Patton was a good example of someone who you give a certain amount of resources to do a specific job, and then stand back and watch the fireworks. He was not a good example of someone who should be let anywhere near geopolitical decision-making

re-arming the Germans wasn't a bad idea though. They hated the Russians more than they hated us. Ditto the Japanese on the east side.

I still buy the theory that the real reason for the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was to make a show of force to the Russians.

Okay a couple things.

First the American people hated Japan with with a fiery passion. Anything less than a surrender would not go over well.

Second the USA had nuclear weapons at its disposal, so I don't think Japan had much room at the barging table.

And third, the Philippines had been recaptured by the end 1942. There is virtually no way the Japanese could have retained control of the Philippines up to the fall of Berlin.

Well that and the oil embargo the US placed on Japan in 1941.

edited 22nd Jan '13 4:40:59 PM by DeviantBraeburn

No no, this was a "they never even attacked U.S. territory in the first place" situation. Though good point about the embargo.

POSTED IN WRONG THREAD

edited 22nd Jan '13 4:58:25 PM by DeviantBraeburn

A "we'll not cut you off from everything you need" deal might have worked out just as well.

Wrong thread mate

@RT: Occam's Razor eliminates that theory. Loss of casualties is an adequate explanation. Further speculation enters the realm of conspiracy theory.

Well, it was more complicated than that but I'd rather just link someone to the prior threads on the atomic bombing as I remember explaining myself better there.

plus our backing of the Nationalist chinese (which had sided with the triads) while japan sided with the remnant of the imperial dynasty (qing?) we were giving a LOT of weapons to one side in that civil war. plus japans eyes on the Philippines were due to concerns over their routes to the Indonesian oil

strategy wise, the japanese in commiting to an attack at pearl, probably should've sent an explosives laden transport to the panama canal (like the Halifax explosion) at the outset (the whole raison detre of the yamato class was to give america a threat so big, our response would be too big to transit the canal, which just didn't work) a good hit on the locks would've put the canal out of commission for years.

wether or not that was done, they still could've done more to defeat pearl harbor.

scenario: after 2 waves leave the base in flames, yamamoto broadcasts a call for the garrison to surrender, if surrender is refused, the cruisers in the task force will begin shelling the coastal cities, while the battlecruisers shell the base, aiming for the fuel dumps (the single most crucial resource at the base), wether the surrender happens or not, a couple thousand naval infantry (a few hundred carried on each warship, the german cruiser blucher had over 800 troops on board during the oslo invasion) are landed to set up demolitions of the dry docks and machine shops, on the way back home, the task force razes midway rather than leave it for later.

the biggest postpearl mistake japan made was constantly dispersing their carrier forces, like at coral sea, and their ground forces (all the dozens of garrisons with as much as a couple thousand men, which were either easily bypased, or crushed in rehersal landings)

that, and their appalingly bad small arms (which i'll address in the gun thread)

in reference to the idea of Patton going to moscow ;) Eisenhower prefered the Morgenthau Plan (keeping millions of pows, err, Disarmed Enemy Combatants, in open fields with no protection from the elements (Rhine Meadow Camps), no visits from the Red Cross, and rations of 1000 calories a day or less... 70, 000 are confirmed to have died, some claim over a million) plus the civilians also had the rations, as well as us actually refusing to allow neighboring countries to sell their food to the germans, and ORDERING OR TROOPS TO CONFISCATE AND BURN "SURPLUS" FOOD (leading to millions of deutschefraulines prostituting themselves to avoid starving, americans paid in cigarettes and chocolate, the russians in bullets and bayonets) ironically, the reason so many supported hitler was due to the millions of volkdeutsche how were cut off from their homeland. (south tyrol and Sudentenland were over 90% austrian but were cruelly stripped away after ww1 and made minorities to their new owners, and eventually ethnically cleansed)

tldr, most sources gloss over that, (this site does somewhat as well, while lavishing detail on the Nazis cruelties) although in the past year, more books are being published on the matter. of course, poland had a considerable amount of land stolen by the soviets, so we probably could've gotten them to fight for us, maybe a couple hundred thousand soviet troops would switch sides

edited 22nd Jan '13 10:39:12 PM by Byakuko

links to above:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_food_policy_in_occupied_Germany#German_civilian_population

destroying food, deliberate, systematic starvation with intent to liquidate millions, stopped only after becoming a liability to Truman's reelection, Herbert Hoover shown to be a heroic figure

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_President%27s_Economic_Mission_to_Germany_and_Austria

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forced_labor_of_Germans_after_World_War_II

systematic enslavement of millions, including women, in inhuman conditions.

the Rhine River Camps... i have no words:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rheinwiesenlager

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:German Unknown Camp 1945.gif

ww2 is a case of Gray Versus Gray / Black Versus Black

note: i know this veers off topic, but i wanted to add context to the discussions in pre cold war europe the other posters covered

edited 22nd Jan '13 10:40:49 PM by Byakuko

The Qing Dynasty fell in 1912.

I think your talking about Manchukuo (which had been set up by Japan to act as a puppet state).

EDIT: Seeing as Truman began to let relief organizations in early 1946 (signaling that he was beginning to give up on the Morgenthau Plan); I doubt it had much to due with the Presidential Election of 1948. More likely it had to due with 3 realizations the Allied leaders slowly made:

• The deindustrialization of Germany was holding back the recovery of the rest of Europe's economy, as the European economy was rather dependent on Germany's industrial base.

• The Soviet Union now posed more of a threat than the possibility of a re-militarized Germany. And a weak Germany could easily fall under the Soviet sphere of influence.

• The Morgenthau Plan was largely unworkable and unrealistic. The Morgenthau Plan (which hoped to turn Germany's industry into agriculture) was like the Great Leap Forward (which hoped to turn China's agriculture into industry). And like the PRC, I don't think the Allies fully grasped how futile and costly there efforts were going to be when they started this operation.

edited 22nd Jan '13 11:44:45 PM by DeviantBraeburn

the dynasty fell, but that didn't mean everybody who was loyal to it died overnight.

the bloodline remained at least until the communists started killing everyone

while the japanese had a "puppet government", don't think for a moment that the Qing had intentions of turning on the japanese once the traitorous nationalists, communists and warlords were dealt with.

even the mongols were eventually kicked out.

the groups that lead china were all very patient, long-term planners (decades, centuries even) it's why the remain the longest continuing society (their contemporaries? pharonic egypt, gone. only ruins remain, mesoamericans, gone. only a handful of rites coopted into Catholism. mesopotamians? modern Iraq is Arabs and Kurds with no continuity to preceding cultures cuneform? assyrians? long gone) China is one hell of a Long Runner and it'll likely outlast europe too. ;)

The landings would have failed badly. US troops by then were already positioning themselves on the beaches to protect against invasion, and the national guard on the island was mobilising.

wiki says there were 2 army divisions, 4 marine battalions & 8 coastal artillery regiments, that wouldn't have lasted long once the bombardment commenced.

while the 5 IJN cruisers had between them,

16 x 14" guns w/ 1440 rds and 38 km range

16 x 8" guns w/ 1920 rds and 29.4 km range

28 x 6" guns w/ 19.5 km range

7 x 5.5" guns w/ 17.5 range

32 x 5" dual purpose guns w/14.8 km range totalling 99 heavy guns

32 x 24" Long Lance torpedo tubes

that doesn't even count the torpedo reloads or torpedoes carried by the destroyers, which would've kept any remaining ships from forcing their way out of the harbor.

More Dakka indeed!

the fact remains that nagumo was a timid sap who kept fucking up yamamato's plans far too often. (he was the one who made the fatefull decision to swap the bombloads at midway rather than launch the already loaded planes, considering how midway should've been taken out earlier)

edited 23rd Jan '13 3:37:18 PM by Byakuko