Escalation of the Conflict in Kosovo - Another War in the Balkans?

@drdeathray: I'm not sure which meeting are you precisely talking about, so I'll asusme you're talking about the last one. It was supposed to be about the customs issue - namely, Serbia objected to Kosovar goods using the label "Republic of Kosovo", but was alright with them keeping "UNMIK Kosovo", signaling Kosovo's status as an UN protectorate, which was the label used since the post-war peace accords, and having customs officers of Kosovo's government keeping the administrative line with Serbia in Serbian-populated areas, but was fine with KFOR officials doing the job. Kosovar officials, helped by KFOR, wanted to take the border posts by force, but were blocked by Serbs barricading the roads. They did it by choppers, anyway. Serbia protested that, and asked for the status to be returned to the one before the intervention. Since the other side wanted to continue the dialogue only under current terms (which were gained unfairly), Serbia backed off from the negotiations.

Why doesn't Serbia just accept it? Sure it hurts Kosovo, but hurts itself too. At this rate, this conflict will be over when both sides have lost everything...meanwhile, the other nations that support either side won't lose anything. Serbia and Kosovo are nothing more than chess pieces to them.

Because of what happened in March 2004, which basically made central Kosovo almost pure Albanian. Serbs are afraid that something similar might happen again, this time in the North, if it was integrated under Kosovar rule.

@Savage Heathen

Believe me or not, the German government is not against Serbia per se. We have just learned the lesson that insisting on former territories is a bad idea and doesn't help you in the long run. Imagine if Germany would still try to get Stettin back from Poland, or the Alsace from France. It's much better to move on and try to reconcile with your neighbours which can't happen if you don't recognize their existence. It is not acceptable that Serbia is running schools and other institutions in the North Kosovo and thus undermining the integrity of the Kosovo. As long as this issue is not resolved, Serbia won't be able to join the EU (looks like they learned something from the Cyprus fiasco), at least according to many EU countries.

Integrity of Kosovo? Isn't that a bit hypocritical - who cared about the integrity of Serbia when Kosovo declared independence?

When it's oppression or ethnic cleansing we're dealing with, territorial integrity is irrelevant. Serbia should protect the lives, rights and property of Serbs in Kosovo at all costs. In fact, they should outright annex the Serbian part of Kosovo.

If any country dares oppress or ethnically cleanse your nationals, the right thing to do is to crush them.

edited 1st Oct '11 3:34:02 AM by SavageHeathen

I am imagining Mexico attempting to "crush" the US and it's hilarious...

Serbia is in no position to annex anybody, Savage. Be realistic, please.

I wonder if Serbia would try a tit for tat and convince the Bosnian Serbs to secede and merge with Belgrade. Isn't Dodik highly in favor of that idea anyway....?

I might sound stupid or naive when I say this, but I really don't see how it could be argued that independence is wrong when the majority of the people in the area in question are in favour of it. Sure, you could make a case that the new country is going to start by committing atrocities, but that is not the fault of the independence, but that of the new government, which other countries should oppose and keep in check to the extent that it's possible.

edited 1st Oct '11 8:48:17 AM by BestOf

Would that not be true for North Kosovo as well then?

@Best Of: Insisting on protecting national integrity in some places, and encouraging self-determination in others is hypocritical. Serbs in North Kosovo don't have any less right for self-determination than the Kosovar Albanians did when they declared independence. The only fair courses of action would either be to keep Kosovo as an autonomous province of Serbia and keep the status quo in other Balkan countries, or encourage referendums in all disputed areas in the region and completely redraw the borders. Doing anything else would be a blatant use of double standards.

@FF Shinra: Serbs in Bosnia want to secede and join Serbia, although the Serbian government is against it for the same reason that I stated above - encouraging them to secede would mean invoking double standards and weakening Serbia's position in the diplomatic battle for Kosovo. If Serbia officialy loses Kosovo, though, supporting an union with Republika Srpska would be the most obvious course of action.

If any region holds a referendum and decides with overwhelming majority to secede, I don't see how preventing it could be justified. If the Serb majority in North Kosovo were to hold a referendum and decide to join Serbia, I don't see how Kosovo could rationally justify preventing it. Not many of the nations of the former Yugoslavia are the result of any kind of organic development of "natural" national borders, and some revision across the board would be a good thing, were it not for the excessive amounts of byrocracy that that would entail.

If there ever is a time when it can be done at reasonable expense, I'm all for it.

There is a problem that Kosovo isn't recognized by Serbia, as well as the UN, so it's still de jure a part of Serbia, which makes it impossible for Serbs in the North to "declare independence". Serbia realizes that Kosovo is lost, but wants to cling to the North. Simply recognizing Kosovo, then waiting for them to declare independence and join Serbia wouldn't work because the West protects "Kosovo's territorial integrity". That's why Serbia refuses to simply recognize it and insists on a diplomatic settlement, because it thinks that keeping the North would turn out to be a realistic compromise. Even though it's the best solution, it won't happen as long as US and EU continue to unquestioningly support Kosovo's cause.

edited 1st Oct '11 10:57:37 AM by MilosStefanovic

Maybe they support because partition is not a solution at all. This will not please either side, but it will destabilize Serbia. Vojvodina might start a separatist movement. As long as Serbia (and other countries in similar position) don't recognize the independence, the people of these countries have their hands tied (what argument do they have?). If it's agreed on partition, then instead of independence, all these ethnicities, might want partition too. So partition is not a solution.

So Kosovo gets what it wants, but Kosovar Serbs get to be screwed? Thats a solution...

I smell American foreign policy at work here..

Indeed. I'm starting to wonder if the peaceniks in Belgrade are now just trying to run out the clock to their election so that if the more hardline parties win, they can tell Europe "I told you so" or "Should have tried fairly dealing with us" or something.

Nah, there is no reasonable risk of further separatism within Serbia - Vojvodina, which has a distinct Serbian majority, wants to stay a part of Serbia, apart from some fringe groups - they do push for more autonomy, though plainly on economic grounds. There is also a separatist movement in Sandzak, led by the mufti and other Islamic clergy - it's loud, but has a pathetic level of support. There have been a few cells of Wahabi would-be terrorists, although all of them are, by now, either killed off or lying in prison.

And Kosovo has a distinct Albanian majority. Vojvodina has 65% Serbian majority, and 45% other ethnicities. Kosovo has 92% Albanians and 4% Serbians (and 4% other ethnicities). Those 4% are the reason of this debate here on TV Tropes (and everywhere else where is debated about Kosovo). And as for those movements...Can you be 100% sure they won't happen again?

edited 2nd Oct '11 1:00:20 PM by drdeathray

But the minorities in Vojvodina don't wish to secede.

Fun, ironic fact: A good percent of Serbian nationalist, far-right parties' voter base consists of Vojvodina Hungarians.

But Kosovo Albanians want an independent state...

And the Serbs in Kosovo want to stay within Serbia. The Serbian-populated North is quite homogenous - why not let them stay a part of Serbia if they want to?

As much as I'm reluctant to say it Milos, I think the matter has to be settled by majority. And right now, the Kosovar separatists have majority.

Serbia has to be prepared to let the north go. They also have to be prepared to leave a caveat that discrimination against Serbs won't be tolerated.

Only problem is that then Kosovo might try a Wounded Gazelle Gambit. And the international community is probably stupid enough to fall for it or cynical enough to see the advantages of buying into it.

The majority in Kosovo voted for independece. As for the recognition majority...it's growing, more and more countries are recognizing Kosovo, slowly but it's growing. Look at this map. there are 5 (visible) countries that have decided to recognize it, and it's expected just an official document, CARICOM also said it would recognize (so 15 other countires) it and the yellow ones haven't decided it yet (Really, according to The Other Wiki these yellow countries have recognized Kosovo lately). Slowly, Kosovo it's getting recognition from more than half of UN.

Sorry Milos, but Kosovo is "winning".

edited 2nd Oct '11 1:38:31 PM by drdeathray

What is right to do in the region should not be a popularity contest amongst nations... which is what the UN resembles, at its worst.