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Escalation of the Conflict in Kosovo - Another War in the Balkans?:

 276 Trev MUN, Sun, 18th Dec '11 11:37:37 AM from YOU STALKER, YOU!
The Infamous Trev-MUN
The Western Powers recognize Kosobo but not South Osethia, Abkhazia, or Palestine. Hell! Not even Taiwan!

While the same is true of Russia which doesnt recognize Kosobo, or Taiwan either.

Hypocresy I say. Hypocresy on both sides.

There are varying reasons why some disputed territories are recognized as nations while others aren't.

For example, Taiwan is technically the exiled nationalist government of China. Its official name is "Republic of China." And right now, I believe, most of the Taiwanese prefer things the way they are right now (an ambiguous political entity that is not independent of the People's Republic of China, but not part of it either).

Even if they wanted independence, it would assuredly mean a confrontation with the People's Republic of China, and it would probably get ugly.

edited 18th Dec '11 11:38:56 AM by TrevMUN

 277 Milos Stefanovic, Sun, 18th Dec '11 12:46:20 PM from White City, Ruritania
Decemberist
The EU's refusal to grant Serbia candidate status is not a surprise. Austria, the Netherlands and Germany made it pretty clear, that if Serbia doesn't recognize the Kosovo, they won't permit Serbia to join. Really, the Serbian government have nobody to blame but themselves.

They haven't (clearly) asked for the recognition of Kosovo, but for the "normalization of relations with Kosovo" which is, quite obviously, an euphemism for recognition, but still left ambigous. That sort of diplomatic ambiguity annoys me - while Serbs in Kosovo are endangered, neither the Serbian government nor the EU has the guts to make a clear, 100% unambigous stance for once. Make a choice, damn it.
The sin of silence when they should protest makes cowards of men.
 278 FF Shinra, Sun, 18th Dec '11 2:09:24 PM from Ivalice, apparently Relationship Status: Too sexy for my shirt
Beware the Crazy Man.
@Milos- How has this situation affected the populatity of the ruling government in Belgrade? Is it generally seen as a good thing (at least for the sake of EU relations), do the people even care to join the EU, or do most see the situation as you do? When is the next election? Is there a possibility of a vote of no confidence on this measure? If for some reason the government falls, who is the next viable party and where do they stand on the issue of North Kosovo, Kosovo as a whole, EU-Serbian relations and the like?

Sorry if I seem overly inquisitive. As a slavophile, I have a great interest in this region.
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...
[up][up][up] Taiwan IS recognized by western governments, it is an ally of the US. It's the PRC that doesn't recognize it. Similarly, most of the recognition issues are issues of allegiance, not legitimacy: Serbia is a Russian ally, so Russia opposes Kosovo, and consequently refuses to recognize it. Meanwhile, since Russia helped Abkhazia and South Ossetia gain independence, they are widely viewed as allies of Russia, so the US doesn't recognize them, in an effort to delegitimise Russian power in the region.

 280 Milos Stefanovic, Sun, 18th Dec '11 2:54:31 PM from White City, Ruritania
Decemberist
@FF Shinra: Not a problem. smile

Like I said, the government is steadily losing its popularity, since the main reason why people voted for them was because of the idea that they could get us into the EU quickly, and the candidature decline was a huge disappointment. The public is polarized between those who think the EU is a sinking ship and that we will never get to join it if the conditions continue to stack up like this, so we should focus on more immediate problems, which are the majority, and the "Overturn" movement, whose supporters consist of those who think that Kosovo (including the North) is lost with no chance of returning it, those who really like the EU and those who simply don't care about the Serbs in Kosovo and don't want their tax money to go for their support.

The elections are scheduled for next spring, though there is a possibility of a vote of no confidence or the government falling. Either way, the most probable winner is a coalition centered around the center-right Serbian Progressive Party, supported by smaller right-wing, socialist and libertarian parties (don't ask, that's how coalitions work in Serbia), which is generally pro-EU, although a bit less so than the current government.

edited 18th Dec '11 2:54:51 PM by MilosStefanovic

The sin of silence when they should protest makes cowards of men.
 281 FF Shinra, Sun, 18th Dec '11 3:13:28 PM from Ivalice, apparently Relationship Status: Too sexy for my shirt
Beware the Crazy Man.
What is the response, if any, to the Eurasian Union idea being floated by Moscow. Is Belgrade waiting for it to become more viable before they consider it as an alternative to the EU or do they already support it or is it EU or nothing at all?
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...
 282 Trev MUN, Sun, 18th Dec '11 3:16:57 PM from YOU STALKER, YOU!
The Infamous Trev-MUN
Taiwan IS recognized by western governments, it is an ally of the US. It's the PRC that doesn't recognize it.

No, there are only 23 sovereign states that recognize the Republic of China. Everyone else has unofficial relations with Taiwan. Again, the Republic of China is technically a government in exile; most countries have switched from recognition of the ROC to the PRC.

Here's the official U.S. position on Taiwan.

"On January 1, 1979, the United States changed its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. In the U.S.-P.R.C. Joint Communique that announced the change, the United States recognized the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China and acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China. The Joint Communique also stated that within this context the people of the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people on Taiwan."

edited 18th Dec '11 3:19:42 PM by TrevMUN

 283 Milos Stefanovic, Sun, 18th Dec '11 3:17:07 PM from White City, Ruritania
Decemberist
[up][up]It seems like nobody is actually considering that option - and the whole concept is quite ridiculous, to be honest.

edited 18th Dec '11 3:17:19 PM by MilosStefanovic

The sin of silence when they should protest makes cowards of men.
[up][up] In 1979, a time when the US was warming up to the PRC. This shows that recognition has to do with allegiance and power, not legitimacy.

 285 FF Shinra, Tue, 20th Dec '11 10:39:36 PM from Ivalice, apparently Relationship Status: Too sexy for my shirt
Beware the Crazy Man.
[up][up]

Why is it ridiculous? The idea of opening free trade with those nations is riduculous as an idea, or the current attempt is ridiculous? I honestly don't know, the Eurasian Union hasn't gotten much coverage other than "Moscow version of the EU". I was only curious because those same reports said Serbia had either been interested or had at least been approached, and since this thing with Kosovo is intrinsically tied to the EU ascendancy attempts by Serbia, I thought it'd be interesting to know.
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...
 286 Trev MUN, Wed, 21st Dec '11 7:02:11 AM from YOU STALKER, YOU!
The Infamous Trev-MUN
[up][up] That doesn't change the fact that Taiwan/the Republic of China is not, despite your claim, officially recognized as a sovereign nation by most countries of the world, nor does it invalidate my previous observation.

[up] Isn't there already something like that being set up using the Commonwealth of Independent States as a basis? I remember reading something along those lines at least ...

 287 Milos Stefanovic, Wed, 21st Dec '11 3:53:21 PM from White City, Ruritania
Decemberist
Serbia, as well as most other countries that could potentially enter the Eurasian Union, aren't too keen on turning into Russian gubernias. It would be indeed be organized similar to the Commonwealth of Independent States, only even more centralized.
The sin of silence when they should protest makes cowards of men.
[up][up]

I was actually trying to respond to the guy you were responding to, sorry.

So we're in agreement? Politics is the primary reason for recognition, not legitimacy?

 289 FF Shinra, Wed, 21st Dec '11 6:53:33 PM from Ivalice, apparently Relationship Status: Too sexy for my shirt
Beware the Crazy Man.
[up][up]

...but they want to be German gubernias? I'm trying to understand Serb facination with the EU when the Russians have been historically more accomodating...and why Serbia would want to join any bloc at all...
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...
 290 Milos Stefanovic, Thu, 22nd Dec '11 2:06:24 AM from White City, Ruritania
Decemberist
The EU-fascination in Balkan countries is fairly interesting. Actually, it's mostly subconscious - Yugoslavia and the countries created after its breakup have a long history of worker migrations to European countries, mostly Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Sweden, France, Italy and the Netherlands. The migrant workers would return to their families with new clothes, a new car, stacks of money and expensive gifts for every friend, relative and their dogs. More recently, there have been EU-funded scholarships at educational facilities in EU countries, with an obligation of returning to the home country afterwards, as well as EU-funded student trips across Europe.

In EU countries, they see a level of prosperity and order that they've never seen in their home countries, and subconsciously see EU membership as an instant ticket to collective wealth. It's a very interesting sociopsychological phenomenon.

Also, the need to align to a power bloc comes from disillusionment. The Serbian public generally dislikes the Western bloc's foreign policy, seeing it as international bullying, yet realizes that the Russians aren't much better (Abkhazia and South Ossetia). There are more and more "pragmatic" historians and political analysts claiming that Serbia's historical failure comes from populism and the public's insistence on "doing the right thing", instead of following a pragmatic course of action and aligning with whoever has the most brute force at that time. They adovcate Serbia's NATO membership, and generally have some quite iffy views, like saying that Yugoslavia should have aligned with the Nazis in WW2. Technically, they're right, but I have problems bringing myself to think that way.

edited 22nd Dec '11 3:33:20 AM by MilosStefanovic

The sin of silence when they should protest makes cowards of men.
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Total posts: 290
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