Pakistani opposition calling for leaders to resign

I don't see this ending up in a war or anything like that. I agree with the sentiment that this is sabre rattling, but the potential for things to explode out of control thanks to the machinations of specific groups is always there.

Conventionally we could whip their asses, but that nuclear deterrent is everpresent.

^ I really don't think their nuclear capabilities are tangible enough to be considered operational at a moment's notice. Owing to their piss poor security on both sides of their country, Pakistan keeps some of their nukes disassembled for storage (ready to be re-built in a hurry when needed) and the rest isn't exactly hard to find.

Considering the naval and air force presence in the region, if Pakistan decided to be stupid and fire on US troops say going after Zawahiri, they would not survive another month as independent. Nuclear weapons or not. (and if they managed to get a nuke off, then we might as well glass the entire country down to the last mud hovel.)

Man, that would be an awkward conversation with China if Pakistan launched nukes.

"Yeah, they're in the air, it's all going down, you know. So....umm...you wanna glass this mountain range or should we? I mean, if it's not gonna make a difference either way..."

American troops have to get to the theatre first Tom. How strong are the American forces in Afghanistan?

150,000 soldiers, Marines and airmen. Not counting the naval and air assets in the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf.

Pakistan has four times that, and 500,000 reservists. They're planning a fleet of 150 JF-17's, retiring the old A-5C and Mirage jets. I don't know how good those planes are, but they sound like they'd at least give the US some serious problems.

[[quoteblock]]I have to agree with Tom concerning the violation of their sovereignty. The chances of the raid being leaked where to high to inform them. [[/quote]] Yes - from an American point of view. From a Pakistani point of view, it's the duty and purpose of the Pakistani military to prevent infringements of Pakistani sovereignty, which the Pakistani military and security apparatus failed doubly, by not detecting Osama on their territory and then not detecting the US raid.

^ This.

@Game Chainsaw Other than Kashmir, the Pakistanis have what is known as the "strategic depth" doctrine, which has been in place since at least the Zia era. This calls for essentially using Afghanistan as a place to retreat to/hide its strategic assets in case of an Indian invasion. In order to facilitate that, they need a friendly government in (the historically anti-Pakistani) Kabul. Enter the Taliban, and enter the logic as to why certain groups (Haqqani network in particular) are not being targetted by Pakistan, because they are needed for the inevitable post-American power vacuum. A designed side-effect of this doctrine is that it subverts Pakhtunistan nationalists, who want to unite the lands divided by the Durand line into a Pakhtun-ruled state. The Pakistani state's integrity is threatened by this, so they will do whatever they have to to keep Afghanistan politically weak.

@Tom They DO, by nature of their conflict with India, have at least a few nukes on standby. What they DON'T have is range to hit the US or Europe or anything like that. Not that it matters when all they gotta do is lob it across the border.

But then, this whole thing about conflict with Pakistan IS a bit unlikely as others have said, so I'll stop from adding even more than I have to that debate. That said, if anything goes bad, we should consider liberating Balochistan....

Anyway, there is a point where the pressure on Pakistan might be too much, and I'd wonder if the US would get better results by continuing this discussion with Pakistan on its motives and behavior behind closed doors....

The JF-17 is basically a Chinese knockoff of the F-16. It's cheaper and doesn't have the advanced AESA radar systems, that's about it. (And the F-16 isn't expensive in the first place)

1.1 million possible military is nothing to boast about. Especially since most of that is not in position to defend the entire western half of Pakistan. We'd have Abrams tanks in Islamabad before they could call up significant reserve forces. Get India on our side and they are horrendously outnumbered and outgunned.

Remember the US military is designed from a tactical and quality point of view to engage enemy forces while outnumbered 10 to 1 and still emerge victorious with the industrial and population capacity to replace any losses incurred in fighting against 10 to 1 odds.

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/story/isi-run-terror-camps-in-pakistan-us-keeps-india-in-the-dark/1/137527.html

Don't count on India.

Kayani ain't budging.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/13/world/asia/13pakistan.html?partner=rss&emc=rss