How do you see this reccession ending?

Excuse my US-centric approach to the topic; a lot of the first-world might be facing a structualized deficit of their own (Europe, Canada, Japan).

No matter what measures we take now (short of something radical), the deficit will take decades to fix. The White House has to fight a mini-war just to pass cuts, which (if you buy into Keynesianism) only address half the problem; in fact, you're going to need spending to reverse this spiral, and our current economy is generating paranoia toward any further red ink.

So, will this result in some significant reorganization of society? Will we see no change at all, Depression 2.0, viva la revolución, Neo-Feudalism? Well, what?

edited 23rd Apr '11 9:18:01 AM by johnnyfog

I see it ending in one of several ways.

a huge burst which would cause

A depression which will last for quite a while.

A massive revolution that could end well or horribly.

A Hobbsian state of Anarchey that will start out loud and eventually quiet down.

Well thanks tnu that certainly narrows it down.

Eh, I see taxes going very high in the United States. Else where, I don't know.

Hey no need to attack me i'm just statign what I think might happen..

Well last quarter's GDP growth was 3.2% so it did end. I'm pretty sure it technically ended a while ago.

The biggest thing the economy needs right now is certainty. That's more important than spending or hiring.

Problem is, there's no certainty from government one way (more intrusion more debt) or the other (the opposite). Obama himself does not help the situation since he hides (or tries to) what he stands for and publicly changes directions as quickly as the wind changes direction. With no real public consistency there's no certainty in regards to Obama. A similar effect is happening with Congress. It also doesn't help the situation that the debt is running rampant owing to the stimulus bills and bailouts (paid back or otherwise) in addition to irresponsible spending by Congress. The debt is devaluing the US currency which erodes confidence and by extension erodes certainty that economic prosperity in the near-term is possible.

The rest of the economy is stuck that way too, since businesses see no certainty from government, the consumers have no certainty that their jobs are going to be there or in the case of folks looking for work the certainty that there is a job out there period.

And wait it gets worse, with the austerity situation in Europe, rampant instability in the Middle East, geopolitical aggression by multiple parties in various forms (Russia, North Korea, Iran) and increasing suspicion the Chinese are cooking the books on their economic situation it does not appear a recovery into a 1990s/2003-2007 style economic upswing is gonna happen until things have fully corrected and calmed down, one way or another.

edited 10th Apr '11 6:23:57 PM by MajorTom

My thoughts?

The economy will eventually stabilize, but it won't return quickly to the high levels of the past.

Probably a slow slight recovery but never as it used to be as the standard of livings drop slightly.

In fire.

Was about to say the same thing. Really, 'In fire' is the only way to answer this question

It'll stabilize.

The recession was over a while ago but the economic pains are still here. I think it's more of a matter of how to plan for the future than it is about how the recession that already ended will end. I think the US Congress needs to have a sort of goal in mind for the future in terms of what types of industries it wishes to pursue and how. Right now it's an angry bickering session between democrats and republicans, with some tea party thrown in, and it isn't very helpful. I find it hard to pin this on Obama when it is Congress refusing to create a budget at all, I mean, they're down to arguing things like breast cancer examinations, which cost basically nothing and thus cutting it (and getting hit by the larger medical fee of having to treat breast cancer that has gone too far) doesn't change the deficit at all.

I see Democrats not willing to support Obama and Republicans riding on No-votes to spur voter anger and then Tea Party that's just rather extremist. If the Democrats had some balls to push through legislation that Obama proposes instead of catering to lobbyist screwballs maybe something could get done.

The United States is royally stuffed. Most of the rest of the world will be royally stuffed in the not-too-distant future.

The economic system prevailing in most of the world just now is fundamentally flawed and unsustainable. Its collapse was inherent in its creation. The current economic problems (which most mainstream types see as being transient) are much more serious than is widely acknowledged and may, in fact, be unrecoverable.

It's going to get worse.

It'll either get worse, in which case the $US will be worth even less than it is now, because quantitative easing is like a revolver: you can only use it a certain number of times before it doesn't work

Or it'll be a long slow recovery with little structural changes, no lessons learnt and the seeds planted for the next, bigger one

Pessimism has advantages

meanwhile, currency valuations are messing with the export market (cause our dollar is worth more than the $US, and hase been floating around parity for months), and Parliament is having a subdued argy-bargy about a $6bil budget shortfall due to floods, floods, fires, storms, floods, and fire

American tropers can take heart. At least you're not in Belgium. They had an elction in June 2010, and still don't have a government

edited 11th Apr '11 2:52:39 AM by pathfinder

Australia never had a recession.

Belgium is no longer a proper country.

edited 11th Apr '11 3:17:05 AM by izumoshep

Belgium is a joke country

You'll see governments collapsing right and left in a few years. With a bit of luck, they won't go back online.

Isn't Belgium supposed to be splitting anyway?

/off-topic

They've been talking of splitting for about a century, probably far longer

The country's divided by political and linguistic lines (actually they're the same lines)

Belgium could split into Wallonia and Flanders. But that wouldn't be the result of a recession.

fix'd

edited 11th Apr '11 4:39:49 AM by Deboss

World peace, a more fair and efficient economic system, an end to world hunger, and a better life for everyone.

Hey, what can I say, I like some optimism in my life .

"American tropers can take heart. At least you're not in Belgium. They had an elction in June 2010, and still don't have a government "

And yet apparently people are still getting paid and they managed to join to join the coalition against Gaddafi in Libya. Apparently you don't need an exectutive.