The Arab Spring

Shit, that's right. What happened here was that I first read the original post as having the wrong word and then, when I replied again, I got the words mixed in my head.

Yeah, interred is buried; interned is jailed.

My bad.

edited 3rd May '15 8:40:59 AM by BestOf

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.

Well, they're definitely not college students working summer jobs...

I despise hypocrisy, unless of course it is my own.

Recent rebel gains present hope for political solution The article claims the various rebel groups are better coordinating with each other, due in large part to the new King of Saudi Arabia deciding Iran is a greater threat than the Muslim Brotherhood, and giving the go ahead to arm Sunni militant groups,together with Qutar and Turkey. It also says the regime is loosing manpower and resources, and is suffering from internal divisions. The key factor in all this is Iran. With the nuclear deal coming up, they could find many of their resources freed up to support Assad. In addition questions must be asked if Iran would allow even a somewhat democratic system to from in Syria,given the possibility that someone they don't like could come into power.

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.

The irony is that Nusra has lost its Islamistness. The hardcore jihadis have mostly discarded al-Qaeda for ISIS, while Nusra itself has absorbed a lot of the shards of the collapsed FSA.

With AQ having fallen apart since the death of the Sheikh, now might be the time to see if the Nusra Front is interested in getting rid of the Death to America and replacing it with, um, an open alliance and tons of aid in toppling Assad. Because as much as I like the idea of a little rapproachment with Iran, Assad (and by extension Syria's status as a Russian ally) needs to go.

I despise hypocrisy, unless of course it is my own.

That's an interesting point of view. I doubt Nusra could ever openly align itself with the West, but I suppose there is no obstacle to covert support, the way the Israelis supported the Kurds for so many years.

edited 3rd May '15 2:50:12 PM by DeMarquis

"We learn from history that we do not learn from history."

You are more likely to get Russia to throw Assad under the bus than force Syria to lose its status as an ally of Moscow. Just saying.

Interesting view on Nusra.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

A confidential UN report alleges that Iran has been arming the Houthis on "a limited basis" since 2009.

I have disagreed with her a lot, but comparing her to republicans and propagandists of dictatorships is really low. - An idiot

All part of the long geopolitical tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia...

Is it just me, or does the Arab Spring feel like its about to enter a new phase? First there was the protests, then the civil wars, now...it feels like something else is coming. Based on nothing but intuition, but there you go.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

That new phase being wars between countries and them gobbling up the leftovers of the civil wars?

May be indeed.

Along with genocide, border changes, and further intensification. Perhaps even spread to places like North Sudan and Lebanon.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

So, World War III?

Sorry, it's the first shit that came to my mind.

WB Yeats time!

Schild und Schwert der Partei

With the number of countries getting involved, thats not entirely off the mark. It's a sheer stroke of luck Pakistan hasn't joined in, because if they had, India would have, China would have, Japan would have....

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

World War III with geopolitical domino-like effects. I see...

Escalation of that nature is difficult to predict, all the more so in these days and more pacifistic times. Pakistan of 30 years ago (especially under Zia ul-Huq) would have Jumped at the Call, Pakistan today refused. India wouldn't necessarily go to war over such a thing either.

I find a world war III scenario difficult to envision without some sort of major unrest globally (a depression bigger than this one). People today are more interested in money than in war.

Thats partly why this recent flux in oil prices back up is making me wonder if they would get involved....

Though I should clarify, I don't necessarily think all the players would fight conventionally, but I could see more players being brought in indirectly.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

The G5 wouldnt allow a regional conflict to spread- might interfere with the flow of the oil, dont you know. That said, I think I agree that something has changed- people in the region seem less patient with governments that have been imposed on them by treaties signed before they were born. Of course, I always hope for large scale reform- but absent that, low level conflict might continue for some time.

"We learn from history that we do not learn from history."

Indeed. Though I'd like to point out that the flow of oil is already getting threatened with Yemen and the Saudi air campaign has merely slowed, not stopped, the Houthi advance.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

My local newspaper did discuss the Syrian war and mentioned that in light of recent successes of the al-Nusra front it may become more likely that a ceasefire happens in the future. Opinions on that?

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman

Unless partition is on the cards, it isn't happening. Both sides have spent too long describing the conflict in existential terms (and have acted upon it when fighting each other) to come to an accord where they have to share something, be it space or governance.

On the other hand, if the ideology of one or both sides changes, that might open up the possibility of more collaboration from surrounding states who stay away because the current players are so anathema.

EDIT-

Aaaand the Houthis decide to hell with logic, shell Saudia.

And now I think I know what the next phase will be: conventional warfare.

edited 5th May '15 1:36:48 PM by FFShinra

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

I remember seeing an article on how Yemen might become Saudi Arabia's Vietnam. I hope I can find it somewhere.

An online friend/acquaintance of mine is convinced the Arab Spring and the current situation overall for the region is leading into a Middle Eastern version of the 30 Years War, or another phase of it.

1

2

(Basically that the Middle East over all for the last 20 or so years has been dealing with a bigger nebulous Sunni vs Shia conflict)

Many were increasingly of the opinion that they'd all made a big mistake in coming down from the trees in the first place. - Douglas Adams

Not sure I agree with the author's dates of when it started (or the Iraqi-centric nature of the argument), but I otherwise agree about this being the region's 30 years war.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

The Houthis are advancing in Aden again.

EDIT- The district they've seized includes the main port and several state institutions, and it was the last district in Aden proper held by Hadi loyalists (nearest Hadi stronghold now is in Little Aden to the west, on the other side of the bay). In essence, the Houthis have just won the battle of Aden.

edited 6th May '15 9:48:04 AM by FFShinra

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...