The Arab Spring

I get that difference. The general public, being stupid/ignorant, will not. Not bombing would be the same as allying, since they essentially get air cover, given the biggest ace in Assad's arsenal is the Sy AAF.

edited 30th Mar '15 8:39:39 AM by FFShinra

Yemen is now under blockade as well as a no-fly zone.

Also, Pakistan has joined up. In what way has yet to be revealed, however.

Pakistan could make a difference if contributing ground forces. There's a group with experience in fighting mountain-insurgents.

Pakistan better be careful though. Iran is a physical neighbor, bordering a very unstable province that they could launch a proxy war in....

Not to mention, a land war in Yemen in general is going to not be easy. Especially since Saudia hasn't actually determined what is victory (because the Houthis surrendering is pie in the sky, so I don't mean desire, I mean what is the objective they would have to meet before they could back off from this madness).

EDIT-

Seems Ahmed Saleh (son of the former president) offered a truce to the Saudis that included launching a coup against the Houthis and not taking power themselves in exchange for lifting sanctions and not attacking Yemen and maintaining Saleh's immunity.

edited 31st Mar '15 6:36:07 AM by FFShinra

The Houthis have reached the center of the city. From what I can discern, only the Crater remains under Hadi's control.

Also, there was a somewhat discomforting article on American citizens still stuck in Yemen...and left to their fate by the US. Can't find the link now, but I believe it was the Guardian.

So this is game over for Hadi aside from being a government-in-exile under al-Saud?

Pretty much, especially with the royal family back in town.

Indeed.

Hadi's reign was numbered when the Houthis took Sana'a. His government collapsed with his house arrest. The loss of Taiz was the beginning of the end for any possible comeback for him as a faction, and his fleeing Aden was the final nail in the coffin. That the Houthis are taking it now after the fact is just icing on the cake.

AQAP has seized the city of Al Mukalla and freed hundreds of its fighters from the city jail.

This is significant because Al Mukalla is the last port (apart from Aden itself) under Hadi's control and, more importantly, the largest city in the Hadhramaut. With its fall, Hadi's forces control nothing of significance outside of what they currently hold in Aden. It's all small towns and hinterland villages.

At the same time, Al Qaeda now has a new base of operations since their ouster from Bayda city.

EDIT-

There are reports that unidentified troops have landed in Aden via ship. Considering the waters and airspace of Yemen are under Saudi control, one can guess that this is likely Egyptian forces (since its their ships enforcing the blockade) or possible Pakistani Marines.

edited 2nd Apr '15 7:29:34 AM by FFShinra

If they landing troops it looks like they need more, cause the Houthi have apparently advanced to and are storming the presidential palace.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-32157994

Seems those weren't troops, but armed guards from a Chinese ship bringing aid and evacuating civilians. Either explanation is plausible at this point, though the Hadi government has no reason to lie (assuming the official contacted was allied to Hadi anyway).

So no land war in asia yet?

I'd *really* like to be a fly on the wall in Saudi military high command right now. What are they driving for, with this? Do they want the pie-in-the-sky conclusion of reducing the Houthi to irrelevance and keeping Yemen as a united, Sunni-dominated territory, a larger and more unruly Bahrain? Or do they just want to put the hurt on the Houthis enough to make them negotiate for that old federal constitution idea?

And (with reference to something Shinra said in the Russia thread) I wonder what they'll do if they get bogged down into a quagmire war like the Afghanistan one. Would serve them right, I think.

Could you refresh me?

I think, in all honesty, Saudia will make one try for the mountains, get their asses kicked, and then they make a play for the Hadhramaut, and get their victory.

A pet theory of mine, more likely than ever now, is that Saudia will take (and annex) the wild east so they get a port directly on the Arabian Sea, ensuring they aren't dependant on the Gulf (which Iran can threaten) or the Red Sea (which requires them to worry about both Egypt and Yemen, stability-wise). Oman might get Mahra and Socotra to make it seem multi-lateral and internationalized rather than an old fashioned land grab.

This post.

Oman might be able to pull it off, being likely more popular especially with the traditionalists on Socotra. I have a hard time seeing anyone willing themselves under al-Saud, who are far from horrible to their people, but Yemen's politics have been secular and republican for almost 50 years now. I'm not seeing them buy a return to the world's last remaining unchecked monarchy.

Well that makes you one unhypocritical poster, then.

Correction: Aden and the immediate surrounding area (the old Federation of South Yemen and Colony of Aden borders) has been republican (if we're talking about just South Yemen as an entity). The Hadhramaut and Mahra (the former Protectorate of South Yemen) are even more tribal than the western provinces are. The former royal families of Kaithri (Seiyun) and Qu'aiti (Al Mukalla) (which make up the area now taken up by the Hadhramaut and Shabwa governorates) still have a lot of power. And the former Sultan's family in Mahra has been reported to be rallying the tribes to him, which is why Mahra, of all the provinces, has been the only one that was stable since 2010.

If Oman were to offer some kind of autonomy in return for fealty, I could see both Mahra and Socotra easily change flag. If the Saudis pledge to keep the peace and stability of Seiyuun (which Riyadh would do gladly since those creating chaos there are AQAP), the emir there would probably declare for them. Same deal with the emir in Al Mukalla.

The Economist figures Assad is weaker than most think....

Interesting analysis. I'm inclined to agree even, but I'm curious what will finally play out.

Interesting, especially the bits about Iran and Assad getting tired of each other. I wonder, any new government the Iranians would instal after kicking Basher and crew to the side would almost certainly be friendly to Tehran, but would it keep it's ties to the Russians?

It would have to if it wants Russia to wield its veto on the Security Council, because even if Assad himself is replaced, the rest of the government would not likely change. It'd still be a Baathist dictatorship, just under new management. As such, they'd still be full of people who should by all rights be tried for war crimes.

Of course it would.

And now, a slight change of pace: Yarmouk Miniatures, a long-form essay from N Plus One magazine.

The thing to hope for is that Iran might want a negotiated settlement between Assad and the rebels.

Which is possible. I feel that what Iran wants to prevent is seeing Assad end up like Qaddafi. So long as Syria ultimately remains in orbit.

Looks like the airstrikes are barely slowing the Houthi down, they've gained more ground in Aden.

http://m.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-32188017