The Arab Spring

Their intent isn't to rule all of Yemen (and hell, even split back into their constituent states, its not yet clear if South Yemen can all be ruled from Aden or if the Hadhramaut, Shabwa, and Mahra will also go their seperate ways.. They and everyone else knows thats impossible. The old royal family can't either for much the same reason.

EDIT-

Damn page topper...

edited 27th Mar '15 11:48:48 AM by FFShinra

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

It'd be a troubling precedent to see a monarchy re-installed. Though i suppose Cambodia got away with it...

Not troubling at all unless the monarchy in question was tyrannical or alien to the local people and customs. It wasn't like Iraq where the King wasn't even from there. The only reason the monarchy was overthrown in the first place was because Nasser willed it (and created Egypt's very own Vietnam in the process, from what I hear) by giving arms, money, manpower, and official encouragement to the officers who launched the coup.

EDIT- And Saleh being one of the officers in question, I have to wonder how he'd react if the royals were allying (rather than undermining) the Houthis...

edited 27th Mar '15 12:55:43 PM by FFShinra

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

The Cambodian one is purely symbolic though, something that a Yemeni one wouldn't be.

"And the Bunny nails it!" ~ Gabrael "If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we." ~ Cyran

Some news:

Us says elite Iranian troops are now training the Houthi forces. Not sure I believe it myself, but if they are....

...then they're doing a damn fine job, because even with Saudis now controlling Yemeni airspace, the Houthis are STILL advancing on Aden.

Meanwhile, an opinion piece on how Yemen is a disposable pawn for Iran.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Classic Iran vs. Saudi proxy war. That's what's gonna become. North Yemen within Iran's sphere and South Yemen within Saudi's sphere, perhaps?

I doubt that the KSA will allow that, if they seriously believe that even a part of Yemen could become Iranian aligned they will send in the troops. No matter how bad of a decision it is.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.

Of course, but, at the moment, the Houthis have been on a (relative) roll.

I think the best outcome here is that the Saudi presence helps force the Houthis to cooperate at the negotiating table. Worst case, 20 years of anarchy and a 15-year quagmire for Saudi troops that eventually results in a revolution at home (because quagmire-wars do topple regimes, see: Franco-Prussia, Soviet-Afghan, and the Portuguese-African Independence wars)

Technically, Portugal actually was winning those wars (with the exception of one of them, which was ending up in a stalemate), in spite of the heavy casualties and the support of the independence groups by the Soviet Union. One of the main reasons the Carnation Revolution that brought down the regime was that the Armed Forces' (mainly lower) officers that were on the left-ier side of the spectrum were not able to get carrer promotions, since they were remaining "frozen", hereby being an obstacle to social mobility.

The independence of Angola, Mozambique, Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde did happened almost right after the Revoltion.

Therefore, the Portuguese case doesn't really apply here, in spite of some superficial similarities.

edited 27th Mar '15 7:15:12 PM by Quag15

The point is that the wars were perceived as unwinnable, similar to the U.S. in Vietnam (which we could have totally won, but the Tet Offensive convinced us we were on the losing side).

Royal family as the compromise solution looks more and more concrete as a theory....

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

So if they were to return the monarchy who would be king?

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.

Presumably the guy who just returned to Yemen.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Ageel bin Muhammad al-Badr (age 42), who as mentioned has returned, interestingly enough he's apparently also of Omani descent.

"And the Bunny nails it!" ~ Gabrael "If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we." ~ Cyran

Omani descent too? Just in general or is he related to the Sultan?

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

The wikipedia comment on it is in need of citation so who knows, there's a reason I went with apparently.

Still if it's true one would assume some relation to the royal family, as royals tend to marry other royals and not mix in common blood.

I'm actually not that far from the grave of the previous king, he's buried in Surrey and lived in Kent after his overthrow.

"And the Bunny nails it!" ~ Gabrael "If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we." ~ Cyran

Nice!

Okay so Aden is completely cut off from the east by land, and Houthi forces have taken the Mukalla-Aden road at the port of Sharqa about 100km east of Aden.

I have to admit, I never thought resistance would collapse as badly as it has. In hindsight, I imagine this is due to the Hirak having very little unity (the behavior of the government units outside of Taiz has not surprised me at all).

Still want to know why Taiz collapsed so spectacularly.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

I'm here, just lacking anything to say and generally busy with RL.

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

Meanwhile, in Syria, it seems Jabhat Al Nusra has seized the city of Idlib, which had been under Assad's control until now.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Do we cheer or hiss?

Schild und Schwert der Partei

IMO, it's passed from one oppressive dictatorship to another. Just a different group of people are being oppressed. If you're a Syrian Sunni, particularly a male fundamentalist, it's probably reason to cheer. Anyone else... not so much, to differing levels.

edited 28th Mar '15 5:04:54 PM by betaalpha

JAN's pretty bad (they're al-Qa'eda in Syria, no duh), but of the three remaining major factions in the war, they've definitely been the best-behaved. It helps that they hoovered up all those moderates when the FSA collapsed, while IS is the employer of choice these days for psychotic Sunni fundamentalists.

So... uhh... a vaguely approving thumbs-up until the reports come in about what horrible things they're doing to the Shia in the town?

What's precedent ever done for us?

Pretty much.

It's a pyrrhic victory though. Assad's forces have almost encircled Aleppo, and once they do, the real "fun" begins...

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

X7 The cemetery has a fair few old Middle Eastern royals, the last king of Yemen, the grandson of the last king of Iran, it even used to have a former king of Oman. Welcome to London (well Surrey technically, but I think they all lived in London).

X2 Let's all take a moment to note how fucked up things are that al-Qa'eda are the best behaved people around.

Aleppo has been on the edge of falling for years now, I'll believe it when I see it.

edited 28th Mar '15 7:14:46 PM by Silasw

"And the Bunny nails it!" ~ Gabrael "If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we." ~ Cyran