The Arab Spring

Not just political backlash: there can be more important consequences, as well. For instance, you could inspire a wave of support for Assad's government. There's been a lot of talk recently about foreigners coming into Syria to fight for either side. Usually they fight against Assad but that might change if Assad was perceived as a victim of a Western intervention. It's happened before.

That's not to say that some politicians wouldn't give up just for fear of political backlash. I'm just saying that there are other, more important motivators, as well. (More important for human rights, that is.)

It does feel icky to let a gas attack go unpunished, though.

Except said action could have led to more humanitarian issues then it solves in an act of retaliation.

I will list two historical examples.

The First one is from WWII in Nazi Occupied Prague

They Assassinated Reinhard Heydrich an SS Obergruppenführer

In reprisal the villages of Lidice and Ležáky were destroyed. Many were killed or sent to concentration camps. Total estimate of people killed in the reprisals is 5,000 people. Also lost were posts for Czech resistance fighters including a radio post.

Carlos Hatchcock underwent a volunteer mission to kill an NVA general. He succeeded and escaped with his life. However the NVA reprisal was an increase and intensification of NVA operations in the region resulting in American and allied forces deaths that said effort was supposed to spare.

Both cases attacks that had a focus on causing damage to an enemies ability to control and maintain their local situation backfired resulting in more damage then they were aimed at preventing.

We would have to do more then fire a few cruise missiles to do any notable damage to Assad's forces and the likely hood of him being able to give the US a decent bloody nose for the effort is pretty good. Never mind the man quite clearly doesn't care all that much about restraint as he has demonstrated and would likely just leverage reprisals against the rebels.

As noted previously there is a real risk of accidentally dispersing chemical agents with a conventional strike. It would take detailed and coordinated strikes with high risk factors to closely follow up a conventional strike with a incendiary strike with a substance like Napalm B or a Thermobaric weapon of sufficient size and power to incinerate the agent.

Then there is dealing with Russia's Putin. The presence of a Russian base in the region only complicates matters quite a bit and his tolerance for the US's action would be low.

Then there is the fact the US had little backing from the international community for such a strike. Going through with it would have only heaped more problems on the US plate.

edited 16th Apr '14 7:47:16 PM by TuefelHundenIV

Also little backing in Congress/American public. Ultimately, if Obama had had that, he could have gone in full monty. But he didn't so he couldn't.

Speaking of Assad, they guy has seriously been mopping up in the last few days. Qalamoun, Hama, Homs. Any remaining pockets in central Syria are outright vanishing as the rebels head to the margins.

Also, the Jordanians took out a convoy heading toward their border via air strike. Dunno if it was the loyalist forces or the rebels though.

The thing with Heydrich, though, is that he was running Czechoslovakia far too well for the Allies' liking - he actually increased economic output, for instance. A large part of the reason behind his assassination was that his carrot-and-stick methods were undermining resistance and keeping the country divided between "let's kick them all out now!" patriots and "well, let's play along so we don't end up like Poland" half-collaborators. It was tacitly hoped that killing him would lead to reprisals which would conclusively inflame Czech sentiment against him - and of course it did. Seriously, Britain was unbelievably cold-blooded during WWII.

edited 17th Apr '14 3:15:41 AM by Achaemenid

The Algerian elections won't be business as usual it seems. Mebbe the Arab Spring will be back on.

edited 17th Apr '14 7:16:45 AM by FFShinra

I really don't think toppling Assad is worth it when his enemies use Child Soldiers (FSA), impose Islamic laws unfairly (Army of Islam), aligned themselves with Al Qaeda (Al Nusra), or is the motherfucking ISIS.

edited 17th Apr '14 6:20:55 PM by Sledgesaul

They way I see it neither group is good. Assad is a brutal bastard and a fair number of his opposition are extremists.

Its a soggy shit sandwich and everyone in Syria has to take a bite. Which is what makes Syria a bit hot to handle for the US and other Western Powers. I think even Putin is somewhat wary of Syria especially since he had to ask for their chemical weapons stocks to be handed over.

Shinra: You think this one may blow up?

edited 17th Apr '14 6:27:41 PM by TuefelHundenIV

Algeria? Not until the guy croaks. It seems most are okay with him in power because he stopped the civil war and let the enemy go with amnesty. But once he dies, they gotta run another election. Granted, most of the candidates will all be from the same party and thus puppets to the status quo, but if anything's gonna happen, it's then.

That is a pity. Hopefully it doesn't happen and they get things sorted out some how.

Abdullah Deghayes killed in Syria conflict: My son the martyr, by father of British teenager

So here's a question for discussion since news seems to be flagging on this thread of late: Do you all think the Arab Spring is over, is in standby until Syria's situation concludes, or still actively ongoing?

I think, personally, it's on standby. Tunisia kicked off Egypt, Egypt kicked off all the other republics and Jordan, Libya kicked off Syria's civil war phase. But if it is in standby, who is next? Iraq? Algeria? Lebanon? North Sudan?

I think once Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, etc settle into stable governance (not necessarily good, but stable) then we can say the present era of the Spring is "over" and a new chapter begins, whatever it may be. As for the current situation: Tunisia is stable-ish. Libya is wobbling. Egypt seems to have been whipped into silence. Syria is still tearing itself apart. I agree that it's on standby - I think this will be remembered as a sequel to the Spring: Assad is mopping up in Syria, El-Sisi is on course to become an Egyptian Pinochet, Libya is at a crossroads between devolution and civil war, and Tunisia is settling.

As for what's next: Algeria or North Sudan would be my bet. Lebanon is too free and Iraq is too chaotic.

edited 20th Apr '14 3:31:26 PM by Achaemenid

On standby. Tunisia is more or less the one successful example of AS regime change. Everyone is waiting to see what happens in Egypt, Libya and Syria. I predict nothing much will happen until at least one of those situations stabilizes. As for who is next? I predict Turkey.

Turkey ain't Arab. I'm keeping the choices limited to the Arab nations since there is a difference between the Arab Spring continuing and the Arab Spring inspiring something in other places.

Lebanon is rather free, but you don't think Syria will set them off? Or Iraq, especially because it's chaotic? Otherwise agreed.

That will depend on the impact in their economy caused by/related to the Syria thing. Not to mention social and political factors spreading.

You arent being a little pedantic? Turkey is certainly part of the region and connected to what happens in more classically Arab states. But OK, then nothing will happen anywhere unless one of the three severe conflicts (Libya, Egypt and Syria) stabilizes. Those three are creating enough uncertainty that very few people are willing to commit to political reform right now. We need more success stories before the movement will spread further.

The main one is Egypt- if they end up in a functioning democracy, then enough people will take heart from that that they will once again start supporting their local activists. A successful resolution in Syria could also have that effect, but unfortunately I dont see that happening anytime in the near-term foreseeable future. Libya could end up successful, but they are too small to spread the movement into other countries (although they could have some effect on Algeria). It's not clear to me what will eventually happen in Egypt- right now it looks like they are about to elect another autocratic president who will protect the military from any real public accountability, but I could be wrong, and if the economy tanks, or there is some sort of scandal involving Sisi, then things could change- the radicals could even take to the streets once more. So it's still in the air.

The Arab Spring is on standby basically because Egypt is.

@FF Shinra

That's a good point, but I imagine Lebanon would enjoy heavy Western support, and the people might rally round to try and preserve what democracy they have.

Syria announces elections for June 3rd. Considering that multiple candidates are allowed this time, I'm curious who is gonna be ballsy enough to run against Assad at this point. I'm also wondering when Assad himself will finally announce he's running. He's been coy about it for some reason.

Seems close to the definition of chutzpah: to turn a non-violent protest movement violent with tanks and APCs, then hold multi-party elections and call the opposition undemocratic.

Syria's lost generation.

It's almost amusing if not for how horrifying that reality is.

It twists my heart whenever I think about how messed up the next generation of Syrians will be after this whole thng finally ends. Having your childhood abruptly befallen by the chaos of civil war, state terrorism, and the harsh reality that not picking up the best available weapon and using it against whoever proves to be willing to shoot you and/or your family dead ^note or, alternatively, doing your best to support adult fighters in non-combat-yet-still-risky-by-proxy roles, like running between camps to deliver important messages and simultaneously risking becoming a target for the enemy. will drastically reduce your life expectancy compared to others who do, can not be conducive to one's long-term psychological health.

edited 24th Apr '14 12:39:03 PM by MarqFJA

Egyptian court bans group that helped topple Mubarak. (Namely, the April 6 Movement)

Anyone still insisting that the military regime is a better option than an Islamist government under Morsi?

I think anybody with a brain has figured out by now.

But a lot of decision-making people hear "Islamwhatever" and any resemblance to a sound decision making process leaves the building.

I don't give a rat's ass about what decision makers think. I've long learned to always expect them to prioritize their own self-serving interests over common sense and the greater good, barring promising newcomers like Morsi. I was more concerned about the people here; last I checked, the popular was still "the regime is far from ideal and definitely a dictatorship that should be replaced with a true liberal democracy, but better their secular rule rather than the Brotherhood's religious one".

An excellent article by James Dorsey on Egypt's sanctions.

TL;DR: Israel and Saudi Arabia are angry with Washington for freezing Al-Sisi out, and worried that Washington is prepared to "fuck with the program" in the ME. Washington for it's part is finding that cutting military aid isn't the leash they thought it was, and that in any case the Gulf states (particularly, the House of Saud - of fucking course) are picking up the tab for Egypt's military.