WMG / Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality Confirmed

These guesses have been confirmed by the end of the fic. Spoilers ahoy!

The Horcruxes are lost in the four elements and in space.

In Chapter 46, Quirrell asks Harry "if you wanted to lose something where no one would ever find it again, where would you put it ?". Harry suggests putting it in the molten core of Earth, one kilometer in the ground, at the bottom of the ocean, in the stratosphere or in space. As we already know Pioneer is Horcruxed, it seems Quirrell did the same with the four other suggestions, which makes sense with the end of the dialogue.

• Confirmed — but Voldemort has well over a hundred additional Horcruxes.

Harry is Voldemort.

• Lucius Malfoy is right. Where would be the best place to hide? Where even you don't know where you're hidden. Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres is Voldemort, body-swapped and obliviated. They'd _never_ see it coming! It would certainly explain where Voldemort is if he's not in Quirrel's (non-existent in this canon, by the way) turban. Fight Club Ending Ahoy!
• This allows Voldemort to fulfill that pesky prophesy and lay low while preparing his take-over-the-world bid from another angle and fulfills the author's promise that no one would hold the idiot ball. Also it may have made Voldemort more compatible with Harry Potter's infant body. In Chapter 46, Quirrell says, "One can never quite disentangle the mind from the body it wears."
• In Chapter 43, Quirrell says, "Our worst memories can only grow worse as we grow older." This may be a hint about What's Wrong With HJPEV, namely, his obliviated memories of his life as Tom Riddle's have made him very capable with disassociation, prone to cold rage, vulnerable to dementors, and exceptionally good at broomstick riding.
• That's why the rememberall lit up like a sun. He had forgotten an entire lifetime.
  • However, as obliviation isn't reversible (as far as we know), isn't it more likely he has used a Pensieve with Bellatrix's assistance?
  • Nope, Jossed. McGonagall says that if Remembralls lit up for people who had been Memory-Charmed, courts would use them and the purebloods' trick of Obliviating themselves wouldn't work.
    • It is established early on (Chapter 7?) that Obliviate charms are used much more flippantly in this universe; Draco states that people place offending memories in Pensieves, Obliviate themselves and recover the memories after the event.
  • It is possible that he forgot his previous lifetime because of childhood amnesia and not an obliviation.
• This was all done with the assistance of Bellatrix Black who then left the scene and travelled to some 'safe' location before obliviating herself. After she had obliviated herself, she attempted to return Voldemort's wand to him, but of course could not find him and heard he was destroyed by an infant he had, apparently, confronted alone. She then stored his wand under his father's gravestone.
  • This answers the question of how Bella got the wand without knowing what happened to Voldemort when Voldemort needed his wand to use the Killing Curse on James and Lily Potter. We find out about Bellatrix and the wand in Chapter 53, "I hid it in the graveyard, my lord, before I left," even though she doesn't know what happened to him.
• The conversation with Lucius Malfoy shows us that Malfoy has figured out at least part of the Dark Lord's JC Two-Step, but there are also hints form the Quibbler.
  • HJPEV is 65 years old because he is Voldemort. Since Lucius knows this, Lucius has a very different understanding of the line, "I prefer to deal with the part of House Malfoy that's my own age." than HJPEV does.
• Blatant early foreshadowing in Chapter 5 if this is the case:
  • Harry considered the question. Was he really Harry Potter? "I only know what other people have told me," Harry said. "It's not like I remember being born." His hand brushed his forehead. "I've had this scar as long as I remember, and I've been told my name was Harry Potter as long as I remember.
• If Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres is Voldemort, who or what is Quirrell?
  • Quirrell is Quirrell.
• We have Word of God that Quirrell is Voldemort. But some of the comments he's made make Voldemort's actions make no sense for that character: anyone who can see the ethical way in which, say, Bellatrix is innocent, would probably have a hard time doing a lot of the stuff Voldemort did. So where did the really dark, nasty stuff go? It went into Harry. And proceeded to undergo ten years of being raised by decent people, a piece of perspective that Tom Riddle completely lacked, and finding Science, and such. Which means that we now have two active Voldemorts on the board: Harry, who got a large chunk of the evil but is learning how to get better; and Quirrell, who is still cunning, manipulative, power-hungry and somewhat evil but just not as horrible as he used to be... and is actively mentoring his other self. Watch this space; they're very well primed for taking over the world.
• I know it's not really important, but if Harry was Voldemort, then wouln't his full name (because the one he has right now is kind of important for the wizarding world, so they wouldn't just let him change it) be "Harry James Tom Marvolo Potter-Evans-Verres-Riddle"? Or would it be "Tom Marvolo Harry James Riddle-Potter-Evans-Verres"? Or any other combination?
  • This WMG deserves to be true, if only for Harry James Tom Marvolo Potter-Evans-Verres-Riddle.
• Since any horcrux contains a piece of someone's soul, it stands to reason that that horcrux is that person in some limited capacity. As such, both Harry and Quirrell are Voldemort, since they are both horcruxes. The real confusing thing is how one person can be aware that he is a horcrux, and another can be a horcrux without being aware of it.
• There is a lot of evidence for this theory (Harry and Quirrel both being saved states of Voldemort). How their magic reacts, Quirrel's actions towards Harry, Quirrel's reactions to Harry (especially to Harry's statements about his dark side in chapter 20), Quirrel's motives ("it sometimes amuses me to play the part of the hero", "my plan is for you to rule magical Britain"), Harry's words in chapter 3 (""I had the strangest feeling that I knew him..." Harry rubbed his forehead. "And that I shouldn't ought to shake his hand." Like meeting someone who had been a friend, once, before something went drastically wrong... that wasn't really it at all, but Harry couldn't find words."), the prophecy itself, the conspicious lack Voldemort trying to kill Harry in the flashback and his agreement to spare Harry's life (he was going to anyway), the fact that what happened can apparently be guessed by a close friend of the author just by the first few sentences of chapter 1 (implying the solution is very simple), the likely fact that Harry is a Horcrux and yet this is a materialistic universe meaning that the personality ect of Voldemort has to be stored somewhere and yet the hat said there was only one personality under it's brim (Harry's odds of Dark Wizardry were judged so high BECAUSE he's almost an exact match with Tom Riddle), Harry's intelligence and emotional maturity, the rememberall... This is pretty much the only sensible explanation and could probably have been deduced by chapter 20.
• Confirmed: Harry has Voldemort's memories and thought patterns. He's an Original-type Horcrux.

Dumbledore is NOT the antagonist.

• He is an old and wise wizard who has been trying to do good, although not always successful. Possible explanations to the points above are:
  • He thought Grindelwald was a hero, a ''bit'' extreme, but still a hero. It was not until when, at some point, Grindelwald had somehow crossed the Moral Event Horizon that Dumbledore decided to intervene. It was a coincidence that Dumbledore had the most power to gain at that point.
    • Or he was telling the truth when he said that if he had acted any sooner, he wouldn't have been able to succeed.
  • Narcissa Malfoy is still alive under some sort of a Magical Witness Protection Program run by Dumbledore. The body Dumbledore burned was an animated death doll.
    • The death could have been faked using phoenix travel as it resembles being burned to nothing.
  • He wasn't really serious about the cruel step-parents thing. He just liked to mess with Harry's head.
    • Or he was, as Harry speculates, trying to put Harry in a situation where he couldn't depend on anyone else and had to develop a heroic level of responsibility.
  • The chicken wasn't really alive, but Transfigured from a rock. And even if it was alive, it is highly doubtful that the Wizarding World has some sort of a PETA organization. So what Dumbledore did wasn't really evil in the eyes of a meat-eating, Middle Ages society.
  • He probably saw that Snape was a potential Death Eater, so he tried to get an innocent Lily Evans away from all that darkness. His methods were questionable, but his intentions were good.
  • He thought the war could end quickly by bringing Voldemort directly to Harry Potter. Sacrificing close friends such as Lily and James Potter was a desperate and costly move on Dumbledore's part.
  • We don't know for sure that he abused and killed his sister. Dumbledore could be covering up for Aberforth for all we know.
  • He was using reverse psychology to get Hermione to become a heroine in her own right. He didn't expect her to rally up a ''whole squad'' of heroines, though...
  • To be fair, he's treating himself as a chess piece, not just everyone else. He probably thinks that Fate is the hand that moves the pieces.
• Dumbledore may act crazy and inscrutable, but, in the end, he's really just a Boke looking for a Tsukkomi. Sadly, he's simply too intimidating for people to be brave enough to take up the Tsukkomi role...
  • I just thought he'd made a magical illusion of a burning chicken. He's the most powerful wizard alive, after all.
• Confirmed. He's been manipulating events to create the least damaging option out of the doomsday prophecies.

Mr. Hat and Cloak is...

• The Author
• David Xanatos himself. It's been established that there are tales similar to Gargoyles in this reality for wizarding kind so assuming they're true it wouldn't be too outlandish to have Xanatos or one of his descendants really having a hand in Hogwarts.
• Severus Snape. He is the Head of Slytherin House, after all!
  • He's also bad at understanding young girls, capable of casting the memory charm, and one of the few people who might refer to Dumbledore as "Albus". Additionally, he's one of the few people Hermione would panic upon seeing.
  • He would know that he's a former Death Eater.
• Harry Potter himself under the influence of Roger Bacon/Tom Riddle's diary. After eight chapters it has to have taker some effect.
  • Harry hasn't used the journal as of chapter 37: "Harry hadn't even started yet on learning Latin so he could read the experimental diary of Roger Bacon."
• Prof. Quirrell. Note that after Quirrell's conversation with Blaise and then Harry, he heads off in the same direction Blaise went. Prof. Quirrell also has excellent motivation for wanting to make Dumbledore look bad. Mr. Hat and Cloak would also have a very easy time predicting Prof. Quirrell's reactions if he is Prof. Quirrell.
  • Mr. Hat and Cloak: "... entity which Salazar Slytherin keyed into his wards at a higher level than the Headmaster himself." Prof. Quirrell: "... Salazar Slytherin would have keyed his monster into the ancient wards at a higher level than the Headmaster himself."
  • Note also that just before heading off, Quirrell says he needs to do something of some urgency - i.e., he needs to catch Blaise before he reaches Dumbledore.
  • And he has an excellent motive: provide Harry a strong evidence of him not being Voldemort. He offered Harry to defeat fake Voldemort and now he's trying to to convince Harry that he's actually the impostor acting for Harry's sake. And he's very disappointed about Harry's actions to save Hermione because that means Harry would never forgive him for striking her even if trusting that Quirrell isn't actual Voldemort but fake one.
• Lockhart. Blaise Zabini is a quintiple agent, but Mr. Hat and Cloak does something to make him think that he's only a quadruple agent. Sounds to me like a memory charm, and whose specialty is that? Possibly it's a Lockhart influenced or possessed by Voldemort, since he seems to have knowledge of Slytherin's monster.
  • Of course, Hermione recognized him. So . . . perhaps she recognized him from a book cover . . . or not.
• Sybill Trelawney
• Harry, from the future. He's now trying to fix everything in the past.
  • Now with support! Mr. Hat and Cloak's voice catches on the word time when he's asked how he knows all the answers and riddles and questions. HE'S A TIME TRAVELER! Maybe not Harry, but definitely a time traveler.
  • Further supporting this view are the following:
    • His sinister appearence is what Harry would choose given his love of the Obviously Evil trope and Harry says he eventually wants face-obscuring cloaks for the Bayesian Conspiracy.
    • His lack of people skills would also explain why he doesn't consider that Hermione might find something suspicious about his appearence (he's overlooking her simple response) and why it takes so many attempts to get his point across.
    • H&C also pauses when she uses one of Harry's expressions ("what do you think you know and why?").
    • Harry also has the skill to make use of Blaise Zabini's talents (and takes him onto his team) and H&C also makes use of him.
    • Harry has an interest in time travel (which H&C seems to use, see above). Maybe he finally found a way to abuse the Comed Tea?
• Time Travel Draco Malfoy, for many of the same reasons as Time Travel Harry Potter.
• The Gray Lady (aka Helena Ravenclaw). The form that Mr. Hat and Cloak revealed to Hermione at the end of chapter 76 resembles her, and instead of just assuming a form that Hermione would find appealing, she assumed her own, true form. The ghost of the daughter of the founder of Ravenclaw house is the one behind everything.
• McGonagall- everyone else is plotting, so why not?
• Hagrid. He's upset that he doesn't get a big role in the story.
• Canon Harry.
• Sirius Black.
• At least we know it is a teacher, since we learn that no one else could have cast an Obliviate within Hogwarts without setting off the wards.
• He was Quirrel.

How Rita Skeeter was fooled

Rita's was shown doctored memories

As Quirrel explains, changing the actual records that Rita cited in her report, and then changing them back, should have been impossible. Therefore, the records weren't changed. Rita came to be convinced of their contents without ever having seen them. One way that I can think of to do this would be for the Weasley twins to mess with their own memories, Obliviated themselves (so they forgot that the fake memories were fake), used a Pensive to extract the fake ones, gave them to Rita, and then Obliviated themselves again (so they forgot the fake memories completely). Or something like that. Rita, because she didn't really care about accuracy, never bothered to check that the actual records matched the memories.

• or, much more simply, a False Memory Charm was used to make her think she HAD seen the evidence.
• Confirmed- Rita was False-Memory-Charmed.

The pattern of the horcruxes

We know where one horcrux is: in space. We know Quirrell found Harry's ideas of where to imprison a Dementor to be suspiciously interesting: in the earth's core; in solid rock; sunk in the Marianas Trench; floating in the stratosphere; and shot into space.

Now, in canon, four of the horcruxes are in artifacts belonging to the Founders, whose Houses correspond to the classic alchemical elements: Gryffindor is fire, Ravenclaw air, Slytherin water, and Hufflepuff earth.

Quirrell, as a wizard, saw the same alchemical pattern in Harry's suggestions: fire (earth's molten core), earth (solid rock), water (Marianas Trench), air (stratosphere), and aether (space). Harry, on the other hand, still hasn't read his Roger Bacon!

• The entire Dementor plot may have been an attempt by Quirrellmort to put Harry into stronger contact with his dark side/the evil soul fragment. In canon, Voldemort hid his Horcruxes and then sought to recover them; if MoR!Quirrellmort obliviated himself after hiding them, he may have realized that Harry is a Horcrux and contains a fragment of his soul from before he obliviated himself, and Harry might therefore remember where the Horcruxes were hidden subconsciously. Quirrell is pleased with his plot because Harry confirms his suspected Horcrux locations, thus his comments that it was a good day.
  • Incidentally, I bet the reason why the Dementor said he recognized Quirrell and would hunt him is because he recognized Voldemort as someone who has cheated Death.
    • But we know that when most people look at Dementors, they see whatever their own mind comes up with. So since Quirrell knows he cheated death, he hears the Dementor saying it will hunt him down. Does this imply that Quirrell knows the secret of Dementors?
      • He probably does - he says to tell the Ministry that he ate the Dementor, making him a Death Eater.
• Confirmed. But there's over 100 more.

Quirellmort knows about the resurrection stone.

• Harry told Quirrell the markings on the stone (pretending to be wise, pt 2), which mark the Peverell/Gaunt ring horcrux in the canon.
• "The key to a puzzle is often something you read twenty years ago in an old scroll, or a peculiar ring you saw on the finger of a man you met only once." — Quirrell Ch 26, Noticing Confusion.
• Confirmed- he does now.

Quirrell was not Voldemort; he was the man behind Voldemort

The story he tells of the Martial Artists sounds a lot like a teacher sending an apprentice to learn something from a fellow master... and the student failing utterly.

• This makes Quirrel's motives far more interesting. With this theory, he may be trying to find and destroy Voldemort's horcruxes. His rescue of Bellatrix might actually be a humanitarian mission (and/or a intelligence source to help him undo some of Voldemort's damage).
• The Pioneer Plaque, of course, could still be Quirrell's horcrux.
• He was playing both sides.

Sirius "escaped" from Azkaban by never going there.

When Harry asks if it's possible Sirius escaped from Azkaban, Minerva answers that nobody ever has. Harry speculates that a wizard prison might really be nearly 100% inescapable, and "The best way to get out would be to not go there in the first place." That line stood out to me at the time for some reason. But now, we have the prisoner in Azkaban who's constantly saying to himself "I'm not Sirius, I'm not Sirius." If we assume that's a prisoner who Sirius sent to Azkaban in his stead, we can deduce a little more from that. "I'm not Sirius" is not a happy thought, or the dementors would have eaten it. That implies that the person there knows he deserves to be there more than Sirius does. That points to Peter Pettigrew. How did Sirius make the switch? Perhaps in this universe, Peter and Sirius's animagus forms were each other? Seems like the wizard version of matching tattoos. Finally, I'm guessing that Sirius is still an inveterate prankster with a complexity addiction, and he's Mr. Hat and Cloak as well as Harry's guardian angel.

• Seems unlikely that their Animagus forms are each other, due to MoR!Lupin still being a werewolf, and still friends with James, Sirius, and Pettigrew. The entire reason the Canon!Marauders became Animagi to begin with was to keep Lupin safe/others safe from Lupin during his monthly transformations, as well as to accompany him during that time. That said, it still seems highly probable that the person repeating "I'm not serious, I'm not serious" over and over is Peter Pettigrew somehow forcibly shifted into Sirius' appearance, due to his method of capture and lack of a trial.
  • Sirius (post-faked-death as Pettigrew) does seem like a likely candidate for Hat and Cloak as well, as he would have known about James' Invisibility Cloak, and if he's truly on Voldemort's side (or at least anti-Dumbledore), he has every reason to want Harry to distrust Dumbledore.
  • Also, waiting to see if Yudkowsky will work in a The Dark Knight "Why so serious?!" reference in regards to Pettigrew's assumed predicament.

    • In canon, when Black was free he did send Harry mysterious messages and gifts pointing to him being perhaps both Santa Claus and My Hat and Cloak. He does know all about the secret ways into and out of Hogwarts.

• So now we know that Santa Claus is Dumbledore and Hat and Cloak is Voldemort, leaving not much room for an escaped Sirius in the story. At least not yet...
• Confirmed. He makes Metamorphmagus!Pettigrew become him, and Azkaban forces him to keep that shape.

The fic will not extend past Harry's first year.

Because Harry is just that awesome.

• Confirmed. That is all.

Quirrel's "Plot" to grant all three wishes...

Is to wait until just before the Ravenclaw vs Slytherin game, then convince both teams' seekers to agree not to go after the snitch until both teams have earned at least a thousand points, or better yet until they've both earned whatever the record number of points any house has earned in a year was. This ensures that one or the other will be guaranteed to win the house cup, and the other will still shatter historical records. It also guarantees the rules of Hogwarts Quidditch will be changed, since the exploit will become very obvious and nobody (least of all the other players who have to go at it for hours and hours) will want it used again. It's exactly the kind of plan Harry would come up with, so I won't put it past Quirrel either. It was even foreshadowed when Harry incredulously learned that Quidditch Points translate directly to House points.This ties up all three wishes so neatly, and fits the tone of the story in so many ways, that I am putting my name on it just so I can say I called it later.

• Draco's wish was for Slytherin to win the House Cup, and Hermoine's was for Ravenclaw to win it; therefore, this does not tie up all three wishes, because it only provides for one of the two, but not both, to win the Cup. What's needed is for Ravenclaw and Slytherin to earn exactly the same number of House points, so that both of the two tied Houses can be argued to have legitimately won the House Cup.
• The never-ending Quidditch match between Ravenclaw and Slytherin will be finally resolved by granting both teams infinite points. This will be the only way to guarantee a draw for the two Houses that isn't vulnerable to other professors upsetting the careful balance. Even Dumbledore won't be able to skew the results by awarding massive points at the last moment like how he does in the book. And deducting infinite points won't work, since infinity minus infinity is undefined.
• Both Seekers do refuse to catch the Snitch, but it's left ambiguous as to how much Quirrel was responsible for, and Slytherin ultimately wins in his name, winning both Cups.

Harry's dark side is a very cynical adult wizard

But all the adult's personal memories have been obliviated. This explains the rememberall, McGonagall's observation, Harry's expectation that magic is real before he sees any, Harry's familiarity with the turn-left/go-down rule and the fact that Harry's dark side is not remotely childlike.

• Confirmed, it's Voldemort.

A Horcrux is a sentient ghost.

It's very unlikely that souls exist in the MOR universe, so if Horcruxes are real in this story there must be some other explanation of how they cheat death.

We've already seen one form of "life" after death in the form of ghosts. However, these are shallow copies with little to no awareness and only a superficial ability to understand and interact with their surroundings. But this might be a result of the haphazard and accidental nature of their creation. A deliberately created ghost might be the equal of the person they were copied from.

Violent deaths are said to be one of the ways that ghosts are created, and one of the defining characteristics of a Horcrux is that they require a murder to create. It seems likely that a MOR Horcrux is created by killing someone in such a way as to produce a ghost, but then piggyback onto that process to imprint a copy of their own mental state. From there, the spell might also provide some way to do realtime syncing with the living creator. Or perhaps forming a redundant distributed consciousness with the brain of the creator and any other Horcruxes, to avoid having multiple copies of the creator running around.

• The author made a strong case for the rationality of a character not believing in life after death or souls despite the evidence present in the books that the world does work that way, on the basis that the characters shouldn't be aware of those details. That, however, doesn't make it likely that souls don't exist in MOR itself. It isn't a trait of rationality to dismiss something because you don't want it to be true, and if there is evidence in the books that souls exist and MOR goes out of its way to explain how not believing in souls or the afterlife in spite of this is still rational, the correct response of a rational reader should be to accept that souls probably exist in MOR. You could probably make a good case that Voldemort would have wanted something based more in rationality than souls as his backup plan in case of death, and that horcruxes aren't based on souls or that Voldemort thought that they weren't based on souls, but I don't think you can make a case that souls themselves don't exist.
  • The existence of souls is strongly hinted by the observation that animagi don't need enough neurons to run their minds.
  • Word of Yudkowsky also mentions that there is, in fact, an afterlife, and therefore most likely souls, in the MoRverse, it's just that you can't prove the afterlife exists without actually dying yourself, and you can't rationally prove the existence of the soul.
• Confirmed, minus the "sentient" part, necessitating Voldemort's v2.0. It's also possible that the Advanced Horcruxes work like the latter.

S.P.H.E.W, will, by the end of Hermione's tenure, evolve into Hogwarts' Absurdly Powerful Student Council

This is how these things get started.

• maybe jossed, as of chp 75-76, but I doubt the girls will stop trying to be heroes It is still possible if they decided to take a more subtle and or constructive approach, maybe they will organize the students to protect themselves if the new precautions don't work and thus grow to become such a council, whether the adults authorize it or not is another thing entirely.
• I will state for the historical record that this WMG directly caused the creation of the Auxiliary Protective Special Committee. — Eliezer Yudkowsky

Quirrell will have Hermione killed as Harry watches.

Quirrell's goal is to make Harry go permanently over to his dark side. He tried once already with the Dementor. Harry's light side would have been history then, had Hermione not saved him. Okay, so if Hermione is one of the only things that can bring Harry out of his dark side, what would happen to Harry if he watched her die slowly and painfully? Especially if it were made to look like Dumbledore's doing?

Or maybe it will merely look like Dumbledore refused to help. The story's trigger warnings are next going to be updated when a chapter called The Bystander Effect is published. Perhaps what the bystanders in question witness will be Hermione's torture and/or death.

Confirmed. (Mostly, anyway.) Goodbye, Hermione. Although it's not absolutely certain that Quirrell was the one responsible.

• And now it is, but his motive was to "improve Harry's position relative to Lucius Malfoy" rather than force Harry to go permadark.