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This is a "Wild Mass Guess" entry, where we pull out all the sanity stops on theorizing. The regular entry on this topic is elsewhere. Please see this programme note.
Dresden Files Skin Game Predictions
Now that Skin Game is out, this page will now be re-dedicated to predictions and other WMGs that derive from events in that novel. Jossed or Confirmed predictions of Skin Game's contents go at the bottom of the page.

To shield fans who haven't read it yet from spoilers, post all WMGs related to this book here, not in the General Plot Predictions sub-page.

Warning: Unblocked spoilers for Cold Days and other late-in-the-series novels.

One of the prisoners trapped under Demonreach is the original Merlin.
In the first chapter Harry has a mental conversation with one of the prisoners, who doesn't sound raving mad so much as British. And pissed off, because Harry is interrupting his stasis - stasis, note, not imprisonment - just like novices always do, implying that this particular resident of Demonreach is a wizard. Part of the Merlin myth is that he's trapped in some shape or form - and variously under a rock or in a magical cave/invisible tower/glass house/tree, depending on which story you read - by Nimue, whether willingly or through treachery, and awaiting his return to the world.
  • If there's a guy in stasis in a location built by Merlin, it's more likely the literal King-Under-The-Mountain himself - King Arthur.
    • And who better as a candidate for taking up Amoracchius?
  • It's stated that he disappeared, and no-one knows what happened to him. It turns out that like in the original myths, he was tricked by his apprentice and trapped in a cave - except it turns out to be his own prison, where he is trapped in a kind of perpetual stasis. Until our plucky hero releases him in time to save the world for the apocalyptic trilogy, perhaps?
    • Or maybe he put himself there so he'd be available when the BAT comes, with Nimue's help.

Molly is being set up for a Face Your Fears arc.
And she will hopefully come out of it stronger and a safer person, though there's really no telling. Molly's main fears are losing her family (as we see when she's discussing wizardly lifespans with Harry), being under the power of Winter fae (Proven Guilty, we are revisiting the situation), and losing Harry to death/the dark side. She'll be told about Nemesis in her capacity as the Winter Lady, and that it may infect Harry someday. It seems likely that Molly will be distanced from her family one way or another, at least for now. And the fear of Winter is self-explanatory. She's become one of the monsters that tortured her in Proven Guilty and will have to deal with that some way. It looks like we've got some life-altering, character-defining decisions up ahead...
  • Or, she'll succumb to the Mantles power. She has had a LOT of trouble NOT giving in to the dark side, especially when she was operating on her own. She used magic to kill corrupt cops. Granted, they were corrupt cops, but they were still human beings, and she used magic to kill them. Plus, her loyalty to Dresden is a major weakness of hers. She was so devastated by her complicity with Harry's "disappearance" that she almost went off the deep end.

Harry has a third child.
  • As you may recall, part of the ritual for making Harry the Knight of Winter was for him to have relations with Mab. Mab, being the consummate Chessmaster that she is, is hardly going to let such an opportunity go to waste. I predict that Harry has a changeling child whom Mab is keeping in stasis somewhere in the Nevernever until she needs that child either as a lever on Harry or as some other sort of pawn.
    • Mab was kind of a half-starved wreck when Harry woke up in Ghost Story, though, having just spent more than half a year giving his body mouth-to-mouth on Demonreach. If she'd been pregnant, Harry would probably have noticed that her belly was the only part of her that wasn't scrawny. Also, the terms of Mab's contract with Harry forbids her from using him against the ones he loves, so expecting him to sit back and not intervene while she abuses one of his kids (even one he didn't know about) may stretch the terms of their pact to the breaking point.

Shagnasty will return in the guise of one of Thomas's sisters.
When he kicked the crap out of Lara's sisters in Turn Coat, he rendered one of them unconscious and chewed off her fingers while taunting Lara and Harry. If full-blooded naagloshii need to ingest a tissue sample to perfectly mimic someone's form, same as Grey does, then chowing down on those fingers may have been more than a snack or a mockery for Shagnasty: it gave the creature the option of mimicking that Raith sibling with extreme accuracy at some future date.

It was Goodman Grey that stole Susan's loup-garou footage from the TV network after Fool Moon.
He seems to know an awful lot about that footage and its details for something that happened more than twelve years ago, and his shapeshifting talents would make him a good candidate to be hired for the theft by whichever supernatural-savvy faction acted to suppress its contents.

Neither Lasciel nor Ursiel are trapped in Hades' Vault like most assume.
Lasciel and Ascher are already both assumed to be alive by many fans, since Harry never actually saw her die, but chances are good Ursiel is also out as well, even if Genoskwa himself isn't. The Fallen have previously shown an ability to manipulate the coins in such a way that they're likely to be grabbed by unknowing people, so presumably, Ursiel could do the same with his coin, while Genoskwa's corpse was being bounced around the Gate of Ice, in a way that would allow Nicodemus to retrieve Ursiel's coin on the way out. We lose track of Nicodemus for a while, and don't see a hint of him between Genoskwa's death and Nick himself exiting the Vault. It's definitely possible he grabbed the coin while fleeing the Vault proper.

The Einherjar are going to drag Butters into the sparring ring with them in the near future
In Ghost Story Butters jokingly claims that he'll work out with them 'five minutes after he gets a functional lightsaber'. And guess what happens during the climax of Skin Game?

The Shroud will allow Dresden to resign as Winter Knight
Technically, Dresden can quit as Winter Knight whenever he wants. The problem is that the moment he does, he loses the magic holding his spine together, which will render him paraplegic for the next 40-50 years. But the Shroud is supposed to have great healing powers, which could possibly mend his spine for him. Once that happens, he can resign without (physical) consequence.

A Post-Skin Game short story will involve a birthday party for Maggie
Dresden has already missed his daughter's first ten birthdays. Heaven help anyone stupid enough to try to keep him from attending the eleventh.

Confirmed predictions for Skin Game:

Dresden will need to work with the Denarians for the heist.
Because, related to the above, they are tracking Namshiel's coin. Their interest? Namshiel proves Denarians can be infected by Nemesis, and they want information to hunt down any other renegade Denarians. Also gives a chance for Lash to get involved, if she is the parasite. Confirmed he's working with Denarians, but not for the reason suggested.

The parasite in Harry's head will be dealt with, faced, or otherwise encountered in this book.
  • Pretty much a given, since it's about ready to break out of his skull. I think it's:
    • Lash. Specifically, she's been infected by Nemesis and is fighting a Battle in the Center of the Mind against it, hence being a danger to Harry even though she saved him. Harry will weigh in on the fight, and help her finally win.
      • Alternately, the Parasite is something else entirely and the remnants of Lash (which don't count as the parasite) are going to destroy it.
    • I think the Parasite is Quintus Cassius's death curse. The data points: First, Cassius's curse is "Die alone!" Second, we know that magic can be used to create a presence, of sorts, that can live in a person's mind and interact with him. (Recall that Dresden's mom left him and Thomas a message for their soul gaze). Third, at key times, this voice has very nastily reminded Harry he's going to "die alone." Fourth, it is tempting to say the curse was discharged at the end of Changes, but there's also an argument that it wasn't discharged because Harry's physical body remained alive. Fifth, during the Miscon reading of Skin Games, Mab described the parasite as something created from Harry's own power, that hated all he loved and would would seek them out and destroy them. Sixth, in a thematic sense, this represents one of Harry's greatest fears: that his power will run rampant, out of his control, and destroy those that he cares about. Conclusion: Cassius's death curse planted a seed in Harry, and that seed grew by drawing on Harry's own power. As it's grown, it's gained more and more ability to affect Harry's thinking, and it's even gained the ability to maintain his body and its own sentience. Fun speculation: Harry's head is a crowded place. It's been home to Harry, Evil Harry, Lash, Maggie Sr., and this parasite. How has the parasite interacted with all of them?
    • Alternatively, the Parasite could be Kravos aka The Nightmare's ghost. In Grave Peril, Harry absorbed The Nightmare's power. Furthermore, this would also explain why the parasite is sentient. There is the distinct probability, as we have learned in Ghost Story, that Harry may have also absorbed Kravos's memories when he faced it. Said memories would definitely be aggressive against Harry, and certainly would wish ill will toward him. Moreover, there is a highly probable chance that it could have been given life by Harry's own magic or by Harry's Soul Fire. It certainly fits with the whole Parasite wanting to destroy all he loved, as Kravos already tried it once before.
    • Could the Parasite be some combination of all the above? A lot of things have intruded on Harry's psyche or camped out in his head over the years. Perhaps the Parasite is birthed of all of them.
  • It has been dealt with. The parasite was actually a spirit of intellect, created from Harry and Lash. Yes, Harry was pregnant with a spirit.

The Skinwalker will return
Skin Game, Skinwalker. Pretty obvious connection.
  • And Shagnasty is getting tossed in minimum security.
    • Probably. But before that, I'm guessing that he won't just be a factor in the plot, he's gonna be part of Nick's crew.
A skinwalker appears. But he's not malevolent. He's a mercenary, along the lines of Kincaid

Mortal Skinwalkers will be in the plot.
It's mentioned that the immortal Skinwalkers taught mortals. This organization will appear.
  • To an extent, confirmed. Grey implies that he inherited his abilities from a Naagloshii father, and he's old enough to have known Harry's mother. At the same time, he's human enough that Nicodemus sees no issue with offering him a Coin. It seems that he's like Thomas: half-born. Also, there's no organization.

Murphy will take up Fidelacchius
Michael is coming off the bench and the Denarians are appearing also. Additionally, Cold Days has shown that Murphy is now at least somewhat connected to the force determining where and when the Swords are used. Therefore, even if it's just for one fight, she's using it again.
  • She does take it up briefly. But at the end, Fidelacchius is taken up by a new knight. Butters.

Molly will not appear in this book at all, or she will only appear at the very end.
Harry said his Fae training took around 50-60 days (?) and it's reasonable to think Molly's would take a similar length of time. Heist stories usually don't cover long stretches of time.
  • Your reason is Jossed by the first four chapters that have been released. It's been a year since the end of Cold Days and still no contact. Given, Mab's been interfering to hell and back, so the original guess may hold true.
  • Original WMG confirmed; Molly doesn't appear in the flesh until the end, although she does communicate with Harry in a dream earlier in the story.

Nicodemus is going to try and double-cross Harry.
This one's obvious. It's Nicodemus. Grass grows, birds sing, the sun shines, and Nick is an asshole. It's just how the universe works.
  • Think that one up all by yourself, did you? =)
  • Of course he did, although Harry goads him into doing so earlier than he'd planned.

The heist is just a smokescreen. Harry's real orders from Mab will be to take out Nicodemus and/or Hades.
Because I just don't see Mab expecting Nicodemus to hold up his end of the bargain. Maybe she'll tell him to wait until after Nicodemus's sudden but inevitable betrayal (so that Winter isn't seen to be breaking any bargains).
  • Correct. Part of the heist is to get back at Nicodemus for the kidnapping of Marcone. It's also a gambit on Hades' part.

Jossed predictions for Skin Game:

Harry's new blasting rod will be the rifle
Because Rule of Cool meets This Is My Boomstick. And its already a weapon that killed a Walker with Soulfire on Halloween. That knocks it up to legendary weapon status right there. Nope. No new blasting rod, but it could still happen in a future book.

Harry will start researching Tam Lin
We know from Mab that Tam Lin was real, and a Winter Knight. The entire point of that story is Tam Lin being freed from his mantle (Yes, on Halloween, when mantles are flexible) and becoming human again, so we know it's possible. Tam Lin isolating himself and ordering all women away also makes sense in terms of the Knight's mantle, since he was worried he couldn't control himself. Harry needs to get on this lead for escape.
  • Following on from that, the long awaited and anticipated Harry/Murphy hook up could happen. Why? Because in the original legend, Tam Lin was freed 'by the love of a good woman'. Molly, much as she is awesome, doesn't technically count as a woman now that she's one of the Sidhe. And good is debatable. The only other woman close to Harry who would qualify is Susan. And she's dead. Very, very dead.
  • Jossed, at least for this book. Harry's been stuck on the island, unable to research much of anything, and he doesn't even see Molly until the end.

Mab will send Harry to steal Thorned Namshiel's coin from either Marcone or Odin.
Namshiel's hand, containing his coin, was taken onto the helicopter with Michael at the end of Small Favor. Sanya couldn't find it afterward, suggesting that either Marcone or Gard swiped it. Thorned Namshiel is a suspect in the attack on Arctis Tor, and the only Denarian suspect likely to be in an inert coin at present. Tasked by Mab to pursue her vengeance for the Black Council's assault, Harry will need to determine whether it's Marcone or Monoc Securities that are keeping the coin in storage, then steal it back, preferably without the current holder catching on that it's him who does so.
  • Makes sense, Namshiel attacked Arctis Tor and Mab wants revenge/a chance to study a Denarian infected with Nemesis.
  • Jossed, at least for this book.

Harry will be ordered to capture Bob for Mab, but will take advantage of her Exact Words by going after Evil Bob instead.
We've known for ages that Mab has it in for Bob, and learned why in Cold Days. Mab doesn't necessarily know that Evil Bob exists, which gives Harry a loophole to abuse when she orders her Knight to eliminate the spirit once and for all. Actually finding Evil Bob will be difficult, as Harry doesn't know what sort of sanctuary he inhabits or where he went after the events of Ghost Story, although the wicked spirit's having formed an alliance with the Fomor seems likely.
  • Nope. Doesn't happen.

Molly and Harry hook up
  • That's the titular Skin Game. Cold Days has pretty much everyone under the sun shipping Molly/Harry, while Harry keeps protesting waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much. And now that she is Winter and subject to the same predator lust Harry was resisting in Cold Days, she will stop playing nice and start deconstructing his arguments. And we know Harry finds that sort of thing sexy. So his resistance will break. And the book with end with Micheal and Charity finding out.
  • The mantle of the Winter Lady, unfortunately, does play straight into Molly's weaknesses. But I think that it's more likely that they will help each other stay human than give into the mantle's influence. Not that this leaves out the idea: that's a great way for them to become close. And remember Harry and Susan?
  • Jossed; Molly and Harry don't meet until the end, and she's all business when they do.

Harry will be sent to steal the Blackstaff from Ebenezar.
It's actually Mother Winter's walking stick, and she wants it back. Mab agreed never to send Harry against those he loved, but Mother Winter outranks Mab and has never promised any such thing.
  • I really like the idea of the Blackstaff as her walking stick.
Nope, Doesn't happen, although it's still a possibility for a future book/

Harry will face/accidentally bust out one of the Titans
Hades' vaults are in Tartarus, where at least one powerful Titan is imprisoned, and Butcher cryptically asked "well, what could imprison a Titan?" during a Q&A.
  • Gee, I wonder if Demonreach might be "close" to the Nevernever's prison for Old Gods?
Nope, doesn't happen. Hades's vault is full of treasures and artifacts, not Titans.

Lara will show up as either part of the thieving crew or the victim.
The title's going to be Skin Game, and what do the Raiths deal in?
  • In a Q&A for Cold Days, Jim briefly mentioned that the Denarians show up every time a book is a multiple of five (Death Masks is five and Small Favor is ten). Assuming that he applies a similarly formulaic approach to the other villains, Vampires will probably feature heavily in Skin Game, because every book where a vampire has been the main villain has been a multiple of three.
    • Grave Peril is 3, and had Bianca
    • Blood Rites is 6, and had Lord Raith (and Mavra).
    • White Night is 9, and had the Malvora and Skavis families.
    • Changes is 12, and had Arianna Ortega and the Red King.
    • Skin Game is 15, and who knows?
  • Nope. Neither Lara nor any of the White Court are involved in the story in any way.

Mavra will be a part of the heist crew.
As the above WMG talks about, there is a major vampire antagonist every three books. It is possible Mavra will be back and she wasn't there to agree to Harry and Nicodemus's "truce." Odds are she won't want to play nice with Harry.
  • Mavra will appear, try to pull some stunt on Harry, and get flame-broiled in a second. Harry scared the crap out of her, and that was seven books ago. He's gotten older, smarter, and a LOT more powerful since then.
    • In "It's my Birthday Too" which takes place after White Night, Harry considers a group of Black Court Vampires to be a significant threat. The oldest of the group had been a vampire for about one year. Mavra is orders of magnitude older and more experienced than those vampires, not to mention a serious practitioner. The last time Harry managed to scare her off when he literally threatened to transform himself into a god if she threatened his friends. Plus she has The Word of Kemmler.
  • Nope. Mavra does not appear in the book.
  • In fact, it's the first completely vampire-free Dresden novel since Summer Knight. Even Thomas is only referenced, not seen.

The Beckitts' daughter will figure in the plot.
We already know that the Greek pantheon will figure into the plot, that Harry will be working with allies he'd rather not be working with, and that his nickname for the Beckitt's daughter is "Persephone." The plot will involve Marcone somehow coercing Dresden into helping him or his people in nabbing something from Hades to cure her, with the Denarians involved somehow.
  • Nope, the Beckitts' daughter isn't mentioned, although the original Persephone legend is.

Harry will take up Injun Joe on the offer to teach him.
Back in Turn Coat, the morning after Injun Joe runs off the Shagnasty, McCoy mentions that Injun Joe has offered to teach some things to Harry. Could be his subplot in this and the next novel is Harry deciding it might be a good idea to learn what he can from a more experienced wizard.
  • If so, Injun Joe will surely take this opportunity to examine Harry's reactions and attitude on behalf of the Senior Council, to see just how big a security-risk his involvement with Mab may constitute. And possibly also to confirm it really is Harry who came Back from the Dead, rather than something supernatural that's only posing as him...
  • Not only that, Injun Joe offered to teach him how to deal with anger, hate, etc. What, precisely, has the Winter Mantle done to Harry so far?
  • Nope. Injun Joe is not involved in the story. Word of God suggests he'll play a role in book 16, though.

Skin Games will contain (possibly in a flashback) the scene where the Carpenters learn that Molly is now the Winter Lady.
This can fall out one of two ways. 1. Harry, immediately after getting cleaned up, heads over to the Carpenters. 2. After a few days, Mab tells Harry to return Molly to her home. Either way, this is a funny enough scene that Jim can't leave it out.
  • Funny? This scene won't be anything but a Tear Jerker.
  • Nope. Molly's parents do not yet know that she is the Winter Lady.

Sayna will die or be crippled.
In each of the two Denarian books before now, one of the Knights has been taken out of the fight. First Shiro was killed in Death Masks, then Micheal was disabled in Small Favor, now we'll lose Sayna in Skin Games. This of course means that someone will have to take up at least one Sword. I'm thinking Murphy for Fidellachius, Thomas for Amoraccius, or Hope Carpenter for Esperaccius (not totally sure Hope is old enough, but she's pretty close.)
  • Hope is still in middle school at most. You may be thinking of Alicia there.
  • Sanya has been led off on a diversion to prevent him from interfering with the heist. If he was injured, it's not mentioned.

Skin Games will feature Harry making an alliance with Nicky and the Nickelheads against the Outsiders.
One of the running themes of the book so far is Harry having to support and aid evil characters in order to get rid of even more evil characters. Furthermore, we can be reasonably certain that Nicodemus is not infected by Nemesis, and that he pretty much hates it. I can see Nicodemus and Harry needing to team up to fight some Outsider plot, possibly with infected Denarians on the Outsider's side.
  • I always thought the Nicodemus would somehow wind up on the Grey Council. Y'know, kind of like a Devil on the Shoulder thing. Having a Token Evil Teammate like him would be incredibly dangerous, but his darker insights and experience would be helpful in fighting the Black Council.
  • Nope. Doesn't happen, and Nicodemus is so thoroughly discredited by the end that it's unlikely anyone will knowingly work with the Denarians again.

We will find out Kincaid's parentage
From the beginning chapters of Skin Game, Harry requested that he have a person on the team of his choosing. Mab pointed out that when loaned Anduriel's associate that he brought his spawn along, which if she was talking to Nic would indicate Deirdre, however she was making the deal with the fallen angel so what about the fallen's "spawn". Who do we know is not completely human and even has a nickname associated with down below? The Hellhound. Therefore Mab's agreement required "symmetry". She will suggest that Harry hires the Hellhound for this symmetry, sort of how she tasked Harry with killing Maeve as there was a symmetry there because he had killed the Summer Lady.
  • Nope. Kincaid is not involved in the story at all, and it's first Murphy, then an angelically-restored Michael, who come along as Harry's backup.

Any silver coins Harry collects by the end of this book will be going into Demonreach.
Nicodemus has stated that they get about half of their captured coins back from the Church due to the corruptibility of human guardians (Lasciel was thought to be under lock and key until she was thrown at Harry), by putting the coins in his own private super-prison he removes this possibility. Of course this will make for quite the problem with the Church as he will appear to be hoarding them for his own nefarious purposes.
  • Jossed; the two Denarians whom Harry defeats in Skin Game are killed at Hades's vault, and their coins aren't recoverable so they're presumably still there. Nicodemus takes Deirdre's coin with him after he kills her at the Gate of Blood.

Harry will fix his parasite problem by killing Nichodemous with the Noose and then use it on himself to make him immune to the damage caused by the parasite. Removing the need for Molly.
Kind of Obvious but the big guys death is overdue, each time they faced off Harry came a little closer to killing him, any closer this time and he will kill him. And it would be a shame to waste a cool superpower like that.
  • If Jim kills of Nicodemus in this book, it means Nick won't get to show up in the Apocalyptic Trilogy, 5 more books later. I feel like Jim Butcher isn't going to miss out on drama building of that magnitude.
    • Stealing the noose could work, however. And Deirdre would be fair game, if a high-ranking Nickelhead needs killing off.
  • Nope. Parasite problem is fixed by Molly at the end; it's Deirdre who gets killed off when her own father sacrifices her to open the Gate of Blood.

Daniel Carpenter will be the new Fist of God and carry Amoracchius.
Like Father like Son? Daniel has been introduced as a grown man in Ghost Story, physically fit, and there will be a new Knight of the Cross before the book ends.
  • Did not happen in Skin Game. Michael is temporarily rejuvenated by Uriel to allow him to wield the Sword again for a brief time, after which Harry resumes minding Amoracchius with the archangel's approval. The new Knight is Butters, wielding the reconstituted Lightsaber of Faith.

The Leanansidhe will be Harry's backup during the heist.
She's a heavy enough hitter to be able to tangle with the Denarians (unlike Murphy or some of Harry's other friends) and she loves blood and treachery, which this job will give her ample amounts of. Also gives Harry someone to talk to about being the Winter Knight and "of Winter", as it were, and give some exposition on Nemesis and what being a host to it is like. Also hasn't seen much focus since Changes, so it makes sense that she'd get some limelight that she hasn't had in a while.
  • Nope. The backup is Murphy, then Micheal (temporarily wielding Amoracchius again) after she is injured.

Harry will come out on top by destroying the Holy Grail. Or faking its destruction in such a way that Nicodemus can't or won't check.
It just seems like the most blatant method of making Nicky lose this round.
  • Jossed; Nicodemus does get away with the Grail. It's the only thing he gets away with, however — he loses his daughter, his mooks, Ursiel's and Lasciel's coins, and any chance that anyone in the supernatural world will knowingly work with him again — and he's chased out of town by a new Knight of the Cross, so it's a Phyrric Victory at best. Oh, and Tessa is probably scheming to kill him outright now, because he sacrificed their daughter.

Nicodemus will manage to corrupt the Grail. And Daniel Carpenter will end up destroying it will Amoracchius.
For bonus points, the latter part will happen after Nicodemus flees to Japan, and Harry will have to order a conflicted Daniel to do it.
  • Nope. Nicodemus gets away with the Grail.

The British sounding prisoner is Hades
Since we know that mythological gods exist, it's possible that Merlin or a previous warden imprisoned Hades on the theory that he was similar to/working for Satan. After all, Hades had been demonized by Christians. It's possible that Merlin/a previous warden locked him up just in case.
  • Nope. Hades is not locked up and is doing his duty. Harry has the good sense to realize that Everybody Hates Hades is unfair, and presumably Merlin was too.

The Vault will be destroyed once the Grail is removed, Nicodemus will die trying to retrieve it, and Harry will nearly die before being saved
Because the Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade parallels will be hilarious.
  • Harry brings down about half the ceiling and destroys many priceless artifacts in the midst of the battle, but the vault is still standing at the end.

The Monster-Under-The-Bed Mouse and Maggie "slayerized" is fine
Let's face it, assuming there is a monster, if it got by the angelic bodyguards, the biggest threat it would pose to anyone is if you accidentally tripped on it.

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