WMG / Designated Survivor

Warning: Not all spoilers are marked!

The Military-Industrial Complex is actually behind the bombing

The former President, for all that he junked Kirkman's HUD ideas due to, apparently, interpersonal differences, showed himself to be clearly on the political left with an attack on "the 1%" (it should be noted that Richmond never outright fired Kirkman despite the fact he could easily have just "accepted his resignation"; instead, he reassigns him to a minor ambassadorial position from which he easily could call him back if he wanted). Accordingly, powerful people whose wealth and income would be threatened by a program of higher taxes and cutbacks in military spending to help free up money for social programs decided that he had to go in a False Flag Operation. Kirkman himself probably holds similar sympathies, but would have been discounted as a factor by the plotters. They do, however, have new attacks planned to put the American population off-balance and justify a new war against a convenient target, as General Cochrane is only too happy to oblige with in his eagerness to grab the Presidency for himself.

• The FBI is getting inconsistent evidence about the veracity of Al-Sakar's involvement (and as of "Interrogation", they have proof that Al-Sakar was not responsible), and the news story of the attacks on Muslims in Dearborn is suspiciously conveniently timed to break exactly when Kirkman is trying to pay his respects at the ruins of the Capitol Building.
• Atwood's son is kidnapped once the conspiracy realizes that he is on to them.
• Looking to be more and more confirmed as the show goes on.
  • It turns out that MacLeish is not only an associate of Catalan, but he was implicated in some pretty serious war crimes during his tour in Afghanistan that were buried by the Pentagon.
  • Three years before the attack, the Pentagon created a simulation of the Capitol bombing for the purposes of threat assessment. This simulation was then used to carry out the attack, and it's implied that members of President Richmond's cabinet may have been involved (or at least aware of it).
  • The gunmen that attack Hannah and attempt to assassinate Kirkman belong to a private security firm.
  • When MacLeish is having second thoughts about taking the oath of VP, his wife tells him that he was chosen to make America "the empire it once was."
  • It has since been revealed that the plotters deliberately intended for Kirkman to succeed to office, believing he would easily be undermined to let MacLeish eventually become President. Furthermore, they do indeed have new attacks, again taken from threat assessments purloined from the government.
  • Confirmed. A company called Browning-Reed, a Pentagon military contractor, built up a massive ordinance inventory at an abandoned missile base, and the ordinance is of the exact same type as that used to destroy the Capitol building. They also employed the agent who kidnapped Atwood's son and compromised Langdon.

Kirkman will name Hookstraten his Vice-President

He needs her political savvy to add legitimacy to his administration and to help unravel the conspiracy. Bringing her onto the team allows Kirkman to keep a closer eye on her in case she really is an enemy.

• As of "The Mission", Kirman's thinking of MacLeish instead. He gets sworn in at the end of "The Oath", before getting killed off in "The End of the Beginning".
  • After his death, Hookstraten does start angling for the position. Ultimately Jossed, as she gets into some political hot water, and she and Kirkman settle for Secretary of Education.

Some of the state governors were tipped off that something was about to happen

Royce moved awfully damn fast to cement his own authority and power over his little corner of the USA. While his actions could be interpreted as giving in to fear and paranoia as an easy political move, his insistent stonewalling since then suggests he was hoping to be able to break away for good. Other governors waited just a bit too long and Kirkman's successful gambit against Royce put the kibosh on anyone else's plans.

• Also, the media almost immediately ran with the narrative "Kirkman isn't suited for the Presidency", which had to have been orchestrated by the plotters (see above) even as the bombs went off. In times of national crisis there would be a natural tendency to "rally around the leader", whoever that leader is. But by deliberately weakening Kirkman's position, the plotters hope to be able to seize the US government for their own ends if they can't fragment the USA to further confuse and divide the populace.
• The Arizona and Florida governors were also awfully quick to run with their newfound leverage against Kirkman due to the relative weakness of his popular legitimacy.

Other possibilities for Vice-President

Beyond Hookstraten, who Kirkman says is the "presumptive Speaker" of the much-reduced House of Representatives, other possibilities are arising for the position of Vice-President:

• Peter MacLeish. With Hookstraten unable to be trusted, Kirkman could turn to the only other surviving member of Congress, leaning on MacLeish's status as a national hero to bolster his administration. That said, this route would mean two white men as the two leading figures in the government.
  • Confirmed; MacLeish is sworn in in "The Oath".
    • And negated just as quickly, as his wife shoots both him and herself in "The End of the Beginning" to protect The Conspiracy.
• Admiral Chernow. In a time of national crisis, Kirkman could call upon a military figure who he and the country can trust, who has experience with national defence and who has a more even-handed approach than General Cochrane.
• Emily Rhodes. Kirkman trusts her judgment and wants to keep her on board, and appointing her as VP might be a more meaningful way to do that than as a perpetual second-fiddle to Aaron as Chief of Staff (not to mention that putting them in unequal positions ramps up the UST between them and the stakes of pursuing it). The downside is that she has little to no legislative experience.
  • Seems unlikely now that she has already had one promotion to replace Aaron as Kirkman's White House Chief of Staff.
• Alex Kirkman. Tom already leans on her judgment and her experience in constitutional law. Despite the probable accusations of nepotism and despite her ongoing adjustment to the role of First Lady (and that it would be a bit of a ripoff of House of Cards), she could very well be competent enough to take on the position and succeed.
  • Jossed. She gets a Character Death at the end of "Line Of Fire" in mid-Season 2.
• General Cochrane. He may continue his character trajectory from the mid-season finale and agree to aid the Kirkman administration even further by serving as the Vice-President.
• All soundly Jossed. Ellenor Darby, the mayor of Washington, D.C., gets nominated as the new Vice-President after her introduction and capable co-handling of a major crisis in "In The Dark" in Season 2.

Kirkman's future opponent(s) for the presidency

Richmond's first term was already mentioned to be drawing to a close, so a presidential election should be coming up in the relatively near future.

• Kimble Hookstraten. She's already said to Kirkman's face that she's going to be gunning for his job, and is honest enough to live up to her words and do it. On the other hand, she fell victim to Chuck Cunningham Syndrome between Seasons 1 and 2.
• General Cochrane. He was highly vocal in his disapproval of Kirkman's judgment, to the point of starting to scheme for his removal and act unilaterally without Kirkman's approval. With Cochrane having been summarily dismissed from his position as of "The Enemy", he may choose to draw on his background as a military man to run for the presidency. Even if he doesn't win the nomination, someone like Hookstraten may choose him as a running mate.
• Governor Royce. Assuming the charges against him don't stand up in court, which seems likely, he may draw on his position as a state Governor as a springboard for a run for the presidency. That said, he has been firmly Put on a Bus since the early first season, with no mentions of him thereafter.
• Peter MacLeish. Regardless of what party he is a member of, he may take exception to Kirkman's presidency somehow and decide to use his status as a national hero to fuel a presidential candidacy.
  • Unlikely, as he's the Vice President.
    • Now Jossed and impossible, as he is dead as of "The End of the Beginning". He was shooting for the presidency, though.
• Cornelius Moss. Former President and now Secretary of State, he seemed all too happy to return to the White House, and is said to still be widely admired even after his exit from politics.
  • Impossible per the Constitution, unless he didn't serve a second term.
    • Wasn't there a one-off line about him leaving office and retiring from politics after one term? Seems a Chekhov's Gun at this point.
    • Looks like even more of a Chekhov's Gunman now that Kirkman abruptly fired Moss in "The Final Frontier" for abusing his authority as Secretary of State. What are the odds of a veteran politician who hasn't reached his constitutionally-mandated term limits returning to try and teach a lesson to someone who he clearly considers to be an overly cautious neophyte?
    • ... and confirmed, as Moss declares his candidacy for the Republican nomination at the end of the second season. Whether he gets anywhere remains to be seen, if the series gets picked up after its cancellation by ABC.
• Senator Bowman. He willingly cut his term as Governor of Montana short to get himself appointed to the Senate, where he already has a near-total grip over the Republican majority caucus and feels secure enough in his superiority to bully around both Kirkman's administration as well as Speaker Hookstraten, who is supposed to be his own partisan ally. This seems extremely likely, both in-universe and out, as a setup for a future run at the presidency.
• Patrick Lloyd. He's a Karma Houdini after escaping from the authorities at the end of the first season (while all of his on-screen subordinates were arrested or killed) and is still very much a Villain with Good Publicity. What's to say he won't survive a couple more seasons to put his sterling public image and vast wealth to use in a run for the White House?
  • Jossed, as by all apparent indications, he is killed in the destruction of his private bunker early in Season 2.

Al-Sakar was tipped off about the American agent in their midst

It's suspiciously coincidental that just as the CIA agent in place happens to discover Majid Nassar's location, some of Al-Sakar's mooks would be gunning for him. One possibility is that they were tipped off by the real conspirators, knowing that the terrorist group would likely kill a mole they discovered. A dead body provides a very inflammatory hook for a misdirected military attack that will do little to achieve the stated goal of tracking down the actual culprits.

• Confirmed, although not by the plotters. It appears that they had a mole inside the Algerian government, or one of their officials may simply have been sympathetic to Al-Sakar.

The Capitol Building was destroyed by a methane bomb

The damage done to the Capitol Building is too extensive to be explained by conventional explosive, due to the quantity of explosive needed and the requirement to get it on site without people detecting its approach or storage. (Unless you had several trucks packed with explosive, that were also invisible.) However methane is a gas that is highly explosive when mixed with air, but it isn't toxic, and you cannot see, smell, or taste it - and is available on tap. Pump enough of it into a big enough room filled with people, and you basically have a crude fuel-air bomb the size of that room, and no one inside would know. This would be a bomb large enough that it could actually level half the Capitol building, and yet also be portable (because it can be pumped in off site) and also innocent looking, because the parts would be normal plumbing equipment until hooked into (say) the building's gas supply and ventilation system.

• At the same time, it takes quite a while to get a sufficient amount of methane into the building to create said explosive blend, plus enough of it has to be getting released to overcome losses due to ventilation. And wouldn't at least some of the occupants smell the gas and raise the alarm, alerting the rest to the hazard?
• A second chemical is added to commercial natural gas precisely so that leaks may be detected quickly. Granted, the conspiracy very likely can access industrial quantities of pure methane, but delivery will be a problem and in any case the occupants of the building will suffer health issues (bloody nose, vomiting, dizziness, asphyxiation) well before enough gas built up to cause an explosion.
• No they won't, as pure methane is non-toxic. The symptoms discussed match oxygen loss, which doesn't become an issue until long after the gas reaches explosive concentrations. (Some of the at least. Methane is not associated with nose bleeds or vomiting.) Think of it as the hydrocarbon equivalent of nitrogen — only it can blow stuff up.
• Jossed. "Blueprint" reveals that the exact ordinance specification was in a threat assessment stolen from the US government.
  • And "Party Lines" reveals a stockpile of a lot more solid explosives still lying unused.

Hookstraten may have been aware that something was up

It's implied that she was fairly senior in the Congressional pecking order, and has her fingers in just about every political pie there is. She also has numerous contacts still available to her post-disaster, as evidenced by her knowing even before Kirkman about the comings and goings at the Pentagon. As such, she is perfectly placed as a "designated survivor" on this particular occasion. In addition, she asked Wells to keep her posted on the investigation into Room 105 — it's not the first time nor the last time a guilty party has used their position as a way to keep tabs on how far an investigation has gone.

MacLeish and his wife covertly collaborated to create an alibi for his absence from his seat

It is unlikely a foreign terrorist group would want to bother implanting a Trojan Horse into the high echelons of the US government — the goal would simply be to prove they can attack the center of power and do so with impunity, and then claim credit for giving the US a bloody nose bigger even than 9/11. However, given the meticulous ways in which the unknown cabal has dotted their i's and crossed their t's (suborning the Congressional reno, then carefully liquidating anyone who was involved in it), it is not out of bounds to assume that MacLeish, if he is willingly a part of the cabal, was equally meticulous about his alibi on the off chance anyone ever questioned why he lived when thousands more did not.

• Looking confirmed. As of "Interrogation", Agent Wells elicits from Nassar that he did not mastermind the bombing, which is indirect proof that MacLeish is part of a conspiracy to seize the Presidency.
• Doubly so as of "The Oath." Based on the comments made by MacLeish's wife, it seems even if she's not part of the conspiracy, she is aware of it and wants MacLeish to go through with it, even if he's having second thoughts.

MacLeish was blackmailed into being maneuvered into the Vice-Presidency.

The reports by his fellow comrades-in-arms have a rather Manchurian-Candidate-ish feel to them (in that they all line up exactly), and MacLeish himself would be instant persona non grata everywhere the moment his war crimes came to light. The conspiracy wants him as their figurehead because they have the goods on him.

• Looks to be confirmed. In the conversations he has with both the Conspiracy woman and his wife (granted the latter may not actually be in on it), he appears to be very reluctant to go through with whatever the big plan is. The fact that he ultimately does while offering little to no resistance could indicate that they have something to keep him in line.

Who took the bullet?

• Definitely not: Emily, Aaron or Ritter.
• Judging by the contour of the person's chest in the surgery scene, most likely female.
  • Nearest woman to Kirkman at time of shooting: Alex.
  • MacLeish's wife perhaps? She was standing alongside him during the swearing in.
    • Apart from how awesome it would be to see the conspirators offing one of their own, it might actually generate even more sympathy for Peter MacLeish among the public.
  • A female government official, maybe one of Kirkman's interim Cabinet members?
  • Lisa from the Chronicle? She was present at the swearing-in ceremony, as she had just concluded a conversation with Seth near or on the stage minutes beforehand.
  • A random staffer, whose name we will learn in the next episode?
• All of the above are Jossed; President Kirkman is indeed hit by the bullet, though non-fatally so.

Pax Americana

The goal of the Conspiracy is never stated (though Nassar claims that Catalan wanted to see "The end of America.") But in "The Oath", MacLeish is told by his wife that the reason he was picked to survive was so he could make America into "the empire it once was." To build off the above WMG that the military-industrial complex is behind the bombing, the goal of the Conspiracy seems to be a return of American imperialism, akin to the United State's foreign policy throughout the 19th century and/or the Cold War.

• Confirmed in "The Ninth Seat."

Aaron isn't actually a conspirator.

Sure, it seems easy to believe that he is one, based on the fact that he ordered the Capitol bombing simulation file to be kept classified. What if he didn't even know what it was, and was tricked or manipulated into giving the order? It may be that the conspirators actively want(ed) to recruit him as part of the organization, but maybe he's reluctant to go along with it, or there's nobody the conspirators can abduct that would force his compliance, making him more of a Wild Card or a Token Evil Teammate to the Kirkman administration instead of an outright enemy.

• Confirmed as of "Commander-in-Chief". Only thing is that Aaron was not sought out by the conspiracy, but by his ex-boss Langdon.

Kirkman and MacLeish weren't the only ones intended to survive by The Conspiracy

It seems over-the-top, but what if Hookstraten was also intended to survive the night of the Capitol bombing? Hopefully, it's a best-case scenario, wherein she may indeed be Good All Along and a true defender of democracy like Kirkman is. In a worst-case scenario, she might be in league with the conspirators as well, given how far-reaching and unopposed their group seems to be — maybe MacLeish was just reckless in executing his part of the plan and failed by getting too aggressive, while Hookstraten is taking a friendlier and more patient approach? Given the sheer amount of Paranoia Fuel so far, it seems highly likely that the season will end on some sort of cliffhanger that is much more substantial than a random Homeland Security advisor being in league with the conspirators, and Kirkman's inner circle seem to have all been firmly overlooked by the antagonists until they arrived in the White House.

• Apparently Jossed, Hookstraten turns out to be a Jerk with a Heart of Gold, but is cut from the show in the second season.

Jason Atwood isn't actually dead

His survival seems unlikely, especially with Catalan probably taking no chances, but what are the odds Jason Atwood was wearing a bulletproof vest when he was shot in "Misalliance"? It might be wishful thinking, but getting shot in the woods (for the second time in as many episodes) seems too abrupt and offhand an end for a character who was heading towards redemption. Then again, Spoiled by the Format might apply, since Malik Yoba was never listed as a series regular, only as a guest star.

• Looks to be Jossed, unfortunately, unless Season 2 brings a surprise reveal.

The conspirators are The Enclave

This seems to be right out of the Enclave's playbook - foreknowledge of a disaster, save key people, then use the aftermath of that disaster to seize power and reshape 'murica into their image.

Patrick Lloyd is not dead.

This is likely due to the nature of his "Last Stand". If he wanted to keep hidden to rebuild his organization, the best way is to die. So a believable death is a great way to hide.

• It seems Jossed, since someone on the scene did state that Lloyd's remains were found and identified, averting Never Found the Body, but it could just as well be another Death Faked for You as was done with Catalan and his substitute in the first season.

Who is the "Gamine" hacker in Season 2?

Mysterious cyberattacks and leaks have been plaguing Kirkman's administration, Washington, D.C. and the rest of America, and even Russia throughout Season 2. The show is, of course, keeping the perpetrator's identity a secret until quite late — much like Patrick Lloyd in Season 1 — and the implication is that it might be somebody in or connected to Kirkman's administration. Who might be the culprit?

• Patrick Lloyd, tying into the previous WMG that he survived the airstrike on his private bunker. He had considerable technological skills, after all, and presumably he would be out for revenge.
• Andrea Frost. She is an Omnidisciplinary Scientist and a brilliant technology magnate, whose skills and proprietary software have come in very handy (almost suspiciously so) on multiple occasions. Her getting close to President Kirkman could just be a ploy to earn his trust, get access to the White House, and dodge suspicion.
  • Hannah Wells certainly thinks so as of "Capacity", but going by the Rule of Drama, that could just mean that Frost is a massive Red Herring or subject to a Frame-Up. Which she turns out to be.
• Chuck Russink. He definitely possesses the necessary skills to be The Cracker, not to mention easy access to White House infrastructure, although his motive would be a massive question-mark. Is he just feeling overlooked and desiring to prove a point to the administration? Did his The Chew Toy treatment by Damian Rennett push him over the edge to a Green-Eyed Monster (maybe one with a Villainous Crush on Hannah)? It would also be ironic if, being the resident computer expert, he were a Detective Mole or Hired to Hunt Yourself.
• Someone we haven't met previously, who goes From Nobody to Nightmare.
• All Jossed, it's tech executive Dax Minter, who bugged the Oval Office with the model car he presented to Kirkman as a gift and later hacked his therapist's recordings.

Amy will be Leo's love interest.

Aside from both characters being relatively the same age, actors Tanner Buchanan and Taylor Blackwell are relatively the same age in real life too. Both are teen characters living in adult environments and one is the US President's teen son while the other is the teen daughter of a spy and now the adopted daughter of a rogue government agent. There were scenes in the Season 2 finale that if one began with Leo, the previous scene ended with Amy and vice versa. If Stanford falls through or he just happens to be visiting home at the time, Leo could very easily run into and meet Amy at the White House (she may be accompanying Hannah there or have some kind of information that Kirkman needs to hear from her). It's also likely the two will either be kidnapped to try to force cooperation from Kirkman and Hannah in some kind of plot or that they discover something involving a season's overarching story and team up to try to resolve and figure it out. Amy may also end up going to Stanford with Leo too and that would give reason as to see them occasionally and not all the time. The two are shown to be very smart for their age and seeing them use those smarts would most certainly not be a stretch. Also, there was a tweet from the night of the Season 2 finale about the show hopefully continuing and the two becoming romantically linked and Taylor Blackwell liked the tweet which clearly indicates some kind of approval or confirmation on her part. She has also said since that she is good friends with Tanner Buchanan and likes the idea of working with him.

• Whether or not the actor(s) ship(s) the two characters, this would be impossible to confirm or Joss unless someone picks up the series for another season or it gets addressed by Word of God.
• Both characters did not appear in Season 3 with Leo being in college and Amy going to live with relatives. Could have possibly been followed up later on if not for the show being canned by Netflix (and could have been the original plan had the the show not been canned by ABC), but unfortunately Jossed. Either that or potentially an Aborted Arc due to Tanner Buchanan being on Cobra Kai and/or Taylor Blackwell being unavailable. So the idea definitely exists in theory at least.

The real reason Kirkman was made Designated Survivor

By the terrorists. It's not just because they figured he'd be incompetent. It's because as an architect, he would have noticed something was amiss in the Capitol building, because he knows what a building is supposed to look like in detail.

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