History Main / GambitRoulette

20th Sep '16 5:53:22 AM I_love_dragons
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** Also in ''Deathly Hallows'', Dumbledore's method of getting Harry to find the Hallows relies on random encounters - for example, Hermione only recognised the symbol in her book because she happened to meet Luna's dad at Fleur and Bill's wedding. The same goes for Harry finding out [[spoiler: he is a Horcrux]]; if he hadn't been there when [[spoiler: Snape died]] he would never have [[spoiler: made his HeroicSacrifice and Voldemort would've stayed immortal]]. To be fair, Snape was supposed to tell Harry - that's why he asks that Voldemort send him into Hogwarts during the Battle - but didn't do so in time. That is why he is scared when Voldemort tells him that he is going to kill him - he thinks he has failed. No excuse for the symbol, though Dumbeldore [[HandWave handwaves]] it by mentioning that Hermione wouldn't rest until she knew what it meant, so he assumed she would work it out ''somehow'', just not necessarily from Xeno Lovegood.

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** Also in ''Deathly Hallows'', Dumbledore's method of getting Harry to find the Hallows relies on random encounters - for example, Hermione only recognised the symbol in her book because she happened to meet Luna's dad at Fleur and Bill's wedding. The same goes for Harry finding out [[spoiler: he is a Horcrux]]; if he hadn't been there when [[spoiler: Snape died]] he would never have [[spoiler: made his HeroicSacrifice and Voldemort would've stayed immortal]]. To be fair, Snape [[spoiler:Snape]] was supposed to tell Harry - that's why he asks that Voldemort send him into Hogwarts during the Battle - but didn't do so in time. That is why he is scared when Voldemort [[spoiler:Voldemort tells him that he is going to kill him him]] - he thinks he has failed. No excuse for the symbol, though Dumbeldore [[HandWave handwaves]] it by mentioning that Hermione wouldn't rest until she knew what it meant, so he assumed she would work it out ''somehow'', just not necessarily from Xeno Lovegood.
17th Sep '16 6:19:23 PM Discar
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* ''Franchise/MistbornTheOriginalTrilogy'':
** The entire series is the culmination of a millennia-long ThanatosGambit by the Shard Preservation, requiring the exact right things to happen at the exact right times in order to 1: Create a human who could [[spoiler:take up Preservation's power and use it to kill the Shard Ruin (something Preservation himself could never do due to his overpowering instinct to preserve)]], and 2: Create a human [[spoiler:perfectly balanced between both Preservation and Ruin, so he could take up ''both'' Shards once the holders were dead and become God of a reborn world]]. Of course, due to the nature of Preservation's power, he is very very good at predicting the future, but predicting the future thousands of years ''after you died'' is still a pretty big roulette. It did help that Ruin was very very ''bad'' at predicting the future.
** Ruin himself had another, much smaller GambitRoulette. Most of his plans were just "cause as much chaos as possible," so the details weren't really important, his plan to [[spoiler:be released from the Well of Ascension]] was definitely this. He needed to get a [[BloodMagic spike]] in a very specific person so he could influence them, get [[spoiler:the Lord Ruler]] killed a year before power returned to the Well, and then get that spiked person to the Well at a very specific hour without anyone interfering. Considering that this plan took place over a thousand years, this is roughly the equivalent of hitting the bullseye on a dartboard on a moving truck in the middle of a storm.
15th Sep '16 5:12:51 AM SeaRover
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** Satoshi's advice to Kenji about Kagami: Treat her like royalty, so that they can see how long it takes her to offer her body to them, which she eventually does in return for being the only ones there in solidarity for her at Tsukasa's funeral. As if all it takes to a girl's pussy (and to avoid accountability for raping her friends) is to "be a nice guy". (Pro tip: Not everyone has "cheat codes". Most people (and especially those like Kagami) would rather wait until they're ''married'' before making love, and even plenty of stable relationships end in breakup.)

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** Satoshi's advice to Kenji about Kagami: Treat her like royalty, so that they can see how long it takes her to offer her body to them, which she eventually does in return for being the only ones there in solidarity for her at Tsukasa's funeral. [[UnfortunateImplications As if all it takes to a girl's pussy (and to avoid accountability for raping her friends) is to "be a nice guy". guy".]] (Pro tip: Not everyone has "cheat codes". Most people (and especially those like Kagami) would rather wait until they're ''married'' before making love, and even plenty of stable relationships end in breakup.)
8th Sep '16 11:46:36 PM Loekman3
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** E) Captain America actually told Iron Man that his parent's death were orchestrated by HYDRA.
2nd Sep '16 1:48:43 PM hppavilion1
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* Exploited in ''Franchise/TheHitchhikersGuideToTheGalaxy'' with the Infinite Improbability drive, a faster-than-light travel drive that relies on the fact that, from a quantum physics standpoint, it isn't ''entirely'' impossible for an electron to suddenly be several light years away- just unfathomably unlikely. By the same logic, it's not impossible for an entire atom to do the same thing. The Infinite Improbability Drive works by manipulating probability so that nigh-impossible things happen, specifically [[UpToEleven causing every atom in the entire ''ship'' to appear on the other side of the galaxy, exactly where you want to be]].

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* Exploited in ''Franchise/TheHitchhikersGuideToTheGalaxy'' with the Infinite Improbability drive, a faster-than-light travel drive that relies on the fact that, from a quantum physics standpoint, it isn't ''entirely'' impossible for an electron to suddenly be several light years away- just unfathomably unlikely. By the same logic, it's not impossible for an entire atom to do the same thing. The Infinite Improbability Drive works by manipulating probability so that nigh-impossible things happen, specifically [[UpToEleven causing every atom in the entire ''ship'' entire]] ''[[UpToEleven ship]]'' [[UpToEleven to appear on the other side of the galaxy, exactly where you want to be]].
2nd Sep '16 1:45:03 PM hppavilion1
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* Exploited in [[Franchise/The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy]] with the Infinite Improbability drive, a faster-than-light travel drive that relies on the fact that, from a quantum physics standpoint, it isn't ''entirely'' impossible for an electron to suddenly be several light years away- just unfathomably unlikely. By the same logic, it's not impossible for an entire atom to do the same thing. The Infinite Improbability Drive works by manipulating probability so that nigh-impossible things happen, specifically [[UpToEleven causing every atom in the entire ''ship'' to appear on the other side of the galaxy, exactly where you want to be]].

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* Exploited in [[Franchise/The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy]] ''Franchise/TheHitchhikersGuideToTheGalaxy'' with the Infinite Improbability drive, a faster-than-light travel drive that relies on the fact that, from a quantum physics standpoint, it isn't ''entirely'' impossible for an electron to suddenly be several light years away- just unfathomably unlikely. By the same logic, it's not impossible for an entire atom to do the same thing. The Infinite Improbability Drive works by manipulating probability so that nigh-impossible things happen, specifically [[UpToEleven causing every atom in the entire ''ship'' to appear on the other side of the galaxy, exactly where you want to be]].
2nd Sep '16 1:44:02 PM hppavilion1
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Added DiffLines:

* Exploited in [[Franchise/The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy]] with the Infinite Improbability drive, a faster-than-light travel drive that relies on the fact that, from a quantum physics standpoint, it isn't ''entirely'' impossible for an electron to suddenly be several light years away- just unfathomably unlikely. By the same logic, it's not impossible for an entire atom to do the same thing. The Infinite Improbability Drive works by manipulating probability so that nigh-impossible things happen, specifically [[UpToEleven causing every atom in the entire ''ship'' to appear on the other side of the galaxy, exactly where you want to be]].
2nd Sep '16 11:59:48 AM erforce
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* Used and then lampshaded in ''Film/{{Sahara}}''. The main characters find a 19th century ship in the middle of a desert which contains an old cannon and some exploding shells. They rig this up as an anti-aircraft gun and then try to get it to work, time the fuze properly (it's a timed fuze) hoping that the enemy helicopter gunship which is trying to kill them will be in range and they can fire the cannon at the appropriate time, get the cannonball into the enemy helicopter before the shell explodes but not take so long the helicopter can take evasive action, and blow it up. This of course works perfectly, and the characters look at each other and simultaneously say, "There's ''no way'' that should have worked."

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* Used and then lampshaded in ''Film/{{Sahara}}''.''Film/{{Sahara 2005}}''. The main characters find a 19th century ship in the middle of a desert which contains an old cannon and some exploding shells. They rig this up as an anti-aircraft gun and then try to get it to work, time the fuze properly (it's a timed fuze) hoping that the enemy helicopter gunship which is trying to kill them will be in range and they can fire the cannon at the appropriate time, get the cannonball into the enemy helicopter before the shell explodes but not take so long the helicopter can take evasive action, and blow it up. This of course works perfectly, and the characters look at each other and simultaneously say, "There's ''no way'' that should have worked."
28th Aug '16 8:13:57 AM AdamC
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* Happens in ''Series/StarTrekTheNextGeneration'' episode "The Most Toys". Collector Kivas Fajo wants to add Lt. Data to his collection. To succesfully kidnap Data and fake his accidental death, he poisons the water supply of a Federation colony with Tricyanate, making it look like a natural disaster. Because the only antidote, Hitridium, is extremely unstable, he's the only merchant in the region selling the GreenRocks needed to solve this catastrophe. Said green rocks cannot be beamed, thus they must be be shuttled over because they are highly volatile, resulting in a good cover-up for any accidental explosion of the shuttle. His plan, however, hinged on the fact that Picard would send Data on the simple job of ferrying things back and forth, and this is nothing the collector has any control over. Furthermore, Data is not even the crew's best pilot (that honor goes to Riker), and being a high ranking member of the crew, he could very well not have been available to do this ferrying job. Furthermore, the Enterprise has HUNDREDS of crewmembers Picard can choose from. Thankfully, it seems fate threw him a bone and Picard decided to pick Data for the job that day.

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* Happens in ''Series/StarTrekTheNextGeneration'' episode "The Most Toys". Collector Kivas Fajo wants to add Lt. Data to his collection. To succesfully kidnap Data and fake his accidental death, he poisons the water supply of a Federation colony with Tricyanate, making it look like a natural disaster. Because the only antidote, Hitridium, is extremely unstable, he's the only merchant in the region selling the GreenRocks needed to solve this catastrophe. Said green rocks cannot be beamed, thus they must be be shuttled over because they are highly volatile, resulting in a good cover-up for any accidental explosion of the shuttle. His plan, however, hinged on the fact that Picard would send Data on the simple job of ferrying things back and forth, and this is nothing the collector has any control over. Furthermore, Data is not even the crew's best pilot (that honor goes to Riker), and being a high ranking member of the crew, he could very well not have been available to do this ferrying job. Furthermore, the Enterprise has HUNDREDS of crewmembers Picard can choose from. Thankfully, it seems fate threw him a bone and Picard decided to pick Data for the job that day. In a subversion, however, this Roulette didn't work out. The crew was able to tell upon reversing the poisoning that it was sabotage and not a natural disaster, and immediately began to wonder just how long the odds were that Fajo would conveniently have the GreenRocks needed for the mission (and just enough'' Green Rocks). One look into Fajo's personal history and hobbies later, the crew had fingered him for Data's abduction.
31st Jul '16 10:06:22 AM MarsJenkar
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* Played with

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* Played withwith in ''WebOriginal/TheDefrosters''. In episode 9, Pixel Girl implies that she is working on a {{plan}} to stop Pixel Boy from playing World of Warcraft. She and James even mention TV Tropes as they debate the differences between a Gambit Roulette and a XanatosGambit.
* Obscure example, but in [[WebVideo/AvatarTheAbridgedSeries GanXingba's]] [[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhVPxYCXeRA Avatar: TAS]], a comment is made mocking Zhao's- and Light's (Death Note) -ability to have plans that rely on perfect timing and actions they shouldn't be able to see coming.
-->'''Zhao:''' (Speaking of Zhao's denial of use of the Yu Yan Archers) Well darn, it looks like I'm out of luck barring a sudden promotion, like the one arriving right now.
-->'''Colonel Shinu:''' What!? There's no way you could have timed this down to the second!
-->'''Zhao:''' Of course I can. I went to the Light Yagami School of Strategy. I can practically predict the future.
* Mentioned extensively in {{Website/Cracked}}.com's [[http://www.cracked.com/article_16848_6-most-pointlessly-elaborate-movie-murder-plots.html 6 Most Pointlessly Elaborate Movie Murder Plots]].
* The purple and pink unicorns of the [[http://youtube.com/watch?v=CsGYh8AacgY&feature=user Charlie the Unicorn]] fame went through some pretty crazy convoluted schemes just to steal from Charlie. In [[http://youtube.com/watch?v=QFCSXr6qnv4 Charlie the Unicorn 2]], the fact that they get sucked into a [[SwirlyEnergyThingy strange vortex]] and find an amulet to return to the alleged Bo-nana King, have a somewhat GratuitousSpanish conversation to a giant block Z, ride a giant sneaker, arrive at the Temple of the Bananas, then perform in a sing-a-long accompanied with a chorus just to discover that [[TwistEnding Charlie was the Banana King all along]] is a completely outrageous chain of events seeing how this was just used to distract Charlie long enough to rob him of his valuables. Then again, the pink and purple unicorns could just be using ObfuscatingStupidity... or are they?
* [[http://www.seventhsanctum.com/gens/evilplot.html This webpage]] lets you create your own plots which can easily become Gambit Roulettes, for example: Your unstoppable plot: hone your psychic powers, easily allowing you to summon a powerful spirit, easily allowing you to kidnap a popular singer for a huge ransom, easily allowing you to force your minions to make a super battleship, so you can create an evil temple, so you can acquire an unstoppable mega-tank, which allows you to kidnap the prime minister so you can replace him/her with an imposter, so you can force your minions to make a high-tech submarine, easily allowing you to summon a demonic force, which sets the stage to seize control of a legion of golems, which sets the stage to build a clone machine, which sets the stage to pillage the hemisphere which will slake your dark need for power!
* In the early days of the ''Roleplay/LeagueOfIntergalacticCosmicChampions'' The Man In Black would claim that things were going exactly as planned, even if there was no way he could have planned it.
* In an [[http://www.giantitp.com/articles/rTKEivnsYuZrh94H1Sn.html article on creating villains]], the sample villain, the Fire King, infiltrates an elven noble's household, takes over the household, becomes the king's trusted advisor, starts a war, eliminates elements ''on both sides'' to prevent peace. The point of all this is to wipe out all the elves so that he can perform a ritual to absorb all the magical energy in the world, and ''conquer hell''.
* [[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaI08XMRC7A This short]] from Liv Films.
* Several borderline examples in Worm: [[StoryBreakerPower Contessa]], [[TheOmniscient the Simurgh]] and [[WaifProphet Dinah]] all do this to varying degrees, and all have powers that make it seem plausible. Notably, only [[EldritchAbomination the Simurgh]] is able to do this when people that block precognition are involved.
* ''Website/{{Clickhole}}'' gives us [[http://www.clickhole.com/blogpost/big-red-horizon-my-journey-through-american-justic-938 Big Red Horizon]]: a plan that involves the writer falsely confessing to being a SerialKiler to get put on death row, while his accomplice becomes the state governor. All to get a free lobster dinner as his last meal, and pardoned after it.
[[/folder]]

[[folder:Western Animation]]
* ''WesternAnimation/{{Futurama}}'' parodies this in its ([[UnCanceled at the time]]) final episode - the Robot Devil brags that his "ridiculously circuitous plan is one-quarter complete". The plan: 1) Trick Bender into accepting an air horn, 2) Hope that he deafens Leela with it, 3) Convince Leela to sign a deal with the devil with him for her hand (with a twist) 4) Use the threat of this to get his hands back from Fry. All just to get him back where he was at the start of the episode. Even more, he somehow managed to get Bender to trade his hind plate for the air horn so as to have the perfect comeback for his CatchPhrase!
* Parodied in ''The WesternAnimation/AquaTeenHungerForce Colon Movie Film For Theatres''; antagonist Walter Mellon reveals that he created the Aqua Teens, Dr. Weird, and the Insanoflex, and kidnapped [[{{Rush}} Neil Peart]] in the meanwhile, so that Frylock and Dr. Weird would ultimately become enemies and fight to their deaths, whereupon he would inherit their houses and use the land to build a gym. Frylock then informs Mellon that they all ''rent'', and he couldn't have built gyms in residential areas anyway. Then the movie ended.
* ''WesternAnimation/TotalDrama'':
** The "Total Drama Drama Drama Drama Island" special was actually an overcomplicated plot for the ''Total Drama'' powers that be (both in and out of universe) to use for the purpose of making the second season, in a CrowningMomentOfAwesome for the whole series.
** Mal in ''All-Stars'' and Sugar in ''Pahkitew Island'' are walking embodiments of this trope as most of their successes were due to sheer luck and not of actual strategy or skill. Examples of this are Mal being able to find Courtney's list in "Sundae Muddy Sundae" without any explanation for how and most of the events from ''Pahkitew Island'' that were triggered by Sugar very likely still being able to happen even if she wasn't there to cause them.
* In the infamous ''WesternAnimation/SouthPark'' episode "Scott Tenorman Must Die", Cartman devises an extremely intricate plan to exact revenge on Scott Tenorman for cheating him out of $16.12. The plan relies on several red herrings and on Stan and Kyle's betrayal and culminates with Scott eating chili that is made of his own parents' ground-up remains and subsequently crying in front of his favorite band, Radiohead, who then mock him for being a "crybaby".
* The Pixies' "thirty-seven year plan to take over Fairy World" in the MusicalEpisode of ''WesternAnimation/TheFairlyOddparents'' is so hilariously convoluted it defies description but let's try anyway... They are driving and comment that they need a baby for their next plan. A short distance away a train of the circus is approaching a broken bridge, two clowns see this and use the cannon to launch their son, Flappy Bob, to safety. He lands near HP and Sanderson, who take and raise him, in the right way so that he could take the plans to the Learn-a-Torium and make it, then the two pixies use their magic to help the children destroy the city, so that Flappy Bob could convince the adults to put all their children in the Camp Learn-a-Torium, so that HP and Sanderson could manipulate Timmy into wishing a world dominated by kids, so that the kids would not need fairies any more, so that the pixies could grant a wish to Flappy Bob with a loophole to control the fairy world... After it ultimately fails (for apparently not the first time), they wonder if they should try a six-week plan this time.
* ''Franchise/TheSimpsons''
** Homer Simpson's mother plotted to destroy a missile silo owned by Mr. Burns. This plot relied entirely on her dying at exactly the right time, Homer finding her video will on the right day, everyone using what they left her in precisely the right way (and Lisa stealing her crystal earrings), and Mr. Burns leaving a cinder block and chain near the cell Homer was trapped in.
** Also seen in the episode "[[Recap/TheSimpsonsS19E9EternalMoonshineOfTheSimpsonMind Eternal Moonshine of the Simpson Mind]]", in which Homer pulls a Gambit Roulette on himself. Upon accidentally learning that Marge was planning a surprise party for him, he goes to Moe's and orders an amnesia-inducing drink. Before he downs it, he predicts that he will wake up to find his family missing, remember snippets that imply that he hit Marge, go to Dr. Frink for memory recovery, only remember enough to conclude that Marge was having an affair with Duffman, and then throw himself off a bridge at the exact moment in which the party ship was underneath and at the exact place in which he lands on the ship's moonbounce.
** Sideshow Bob in "Funeral For A Fiend" does this. He builds a fake restaurant and broadcasts commercials for its grand opening solely for luring the Simpsons (and no one else) there. ''Then'' he purposely misquotes Shakespeare in order for Lisa to correct him so he could pretend to look it up on Wikipedia in order for the laptop to overheat and explode, leading to his capture. ''Then'' at his trial he relies on the chance that Bart will snatch away his nitroglycerine so he could fake a heart attack and allow his father to inject him with a drug that simulates death. ''Then'' he manages to undergo a funeral without an autopsy or any embalming process, and gets his family members to make Bart feel guilty enough about his death in order for Bart to enter the funeral home when no one else is around, and make peace with his "corpse" before it is cremated.
* Subverted in one episode of ''WesternAnimation/TeamoSupremo'': the main characters are stumped as to how the seemingly unrelated robberies committed by "Mr. Vague" contribute to his ingenious plan.
-->'''Mr. Vague:''' You fools! I have no plan! I just like to act evil and steal stuff!
* An example (but certainly not the only one) where this is used for comedic effect: In the ''WesternAnimation/LooneyTunes'' cartoon "Fool Coverage", Daffy Duck (after much persuasion) sells Porky Pig an insurance policy that will pay him a million dollars if he gets a black eye. However, after Porky signs, he's informed that the policy has some fine print - the payout can only occur if the policyholder receives a black eye as a result of a stampede of wild elephants running through his house between 3:55 and 4 PM on the Fourth of July during a hailstorm. When this improbable sequence of events actually occurs (right after Porky signs up), Daffy makes up an additional clause on the spot that requires that a baby zebra be part of the stampede - and guess what runs through the house immediately thereafter.
* In ''WesternAnimation/JusticeLeague'', after Brainiac has been revealed to have been living in Lex Luthor for years, he states that he's been manipulating Lex Luthor into manipulating everything else so that he, and not Lex, could implant his mind into a duplicate of Amazo (or rather, a "more suitable body"). Really, he just installed a backup of his program into Lex and rolled with whatever came his way. This turns into Gambit Speed Chess when Lex takes advantage of being merged with an immortal robot in order to try and become a techno-organic god.
* There is never a full outline of what the plan was, or who was planning what, but the events of the third season finale and fourth season premiere of ''WesternAnimation/TheVentureBrothers'' required an absurd amount of chance and relied on a ShockingSwerve for resolution. Molotov Cocktease and Hunter Gathers manipulate events so that Brock Samson kills OSI's top three assassins in a fairly straightforward {{plan}} to ensure the supremacy of their Blackhearts organization. Although not specifically stated, they may have also been responsible for Brock's car attempting to kill him, which itself relied on pure luck on several levels. It gets ''completely ridiculous'' once it turns out that the whole storyline going back to Hunter's sex change operation was an elaborate plan by Hunter Gathers, who is actually TheMole for the Blackhearts who reversed his sex change, in order to convince Brock to join Hunter's SPHINX organization. The plan is either the most convoluted and implausible plan of all time or an unbelievably well executed game of GambitSpeedChess. It gets even crazier in the season 4 finale, when it's revealed that EVERYTHING outlined above was in fact orchestrated by General Treister to expose and eliminate Doe and Cardholder, who were actually moles for the Guild of Calamitous Intent; then install Hunter as the new head of the OSI. In other words, Treister's roulette depended on somebody else perfectly orchestrating and executing their own roulette, which quite possibly makes him the true master of this trope. ''Meanwhile'' Mol infiltrates SPHINX as "the rookie" (unsure if she's always been or just sometime before the season finale) in order to (possibly) place her Blackhearts as prostitutes that Dr. Venture orders for Hank and Dean's home school prom in order to distract Brock while she gets away with her SPHINX captured and doped up love, Monstroso (who may be a decoy or maybe the Blackhearts thing was a lie.
* ''WesternAnimation/{{Gargoyles}}''
** The episode "Metamorphosis." Xanatos plans to fake the death of his colleague Dr. Sevarius and get a mutated Derek Maza on his side requires that Derek jump in front of him to take the dart with the serum, the Gargoyles attack his lab at exactly the right moment before Derek is about to receive a "cure," for the cure to be destroyed in the struggle, and then for Sevarius to get knocked into his aquarium during the ensuing fight and somehow not receive a fatal charge from his ''two'' electric eels. Given that Sevarius was in on it and that Xanatos is otherwise a competent chessmaster they probably had other ways of making it work.
** All indications are that the Illuminati was preparing for one of these in the ''WesternAnimation/{{Gargoyles}}'' comic, considering its operatives specifically told Xanatos that they wanted the Gargoyles to be accepted in society, told the leader of the Quarrymen that the organization wanted them destroyed, and told Matt Bluestone that they preferred the current status quo of uneasy distancing. Too bad it was CutShort.
* In the fifth season of ''[[WesternAnimation/TMNT2003 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles]]'' (2003), it was revealed that every event in the series until then -- the Shredder's rise to power, Hamato Yoshi's death, the creation of the turtles, etc. -- had all been allowed to occur as part of a plan to [[spoiler: kill the demon Shredder]].
* ''WesternAnimation/MyLittlePonyFriendshipIsMagic'':
** When [[BigGood Princess Celestia]] appears at the end of the two-part pilot for the first season, she announces she'd planned for everything that happened. It's anyone's guess how she knew Twilight would run into just the right group of new friends and they'd each get a chance to prove themselves along the way as fit to wield the Elements of Harmony, and that Twilight would recognize all of this in time for it to mean anything. Celestia is certainly smart, and the true extent of her abilities is unknown, but predicting all that would have taken omniscience, thus making the plan this trope either way.\\
\\
Much later, however, in the beginning of season 4 to be precise, the audience is shown that the very origin place of the Elements of Harmony already bore clear symbols of their future wielders, leaving open the possibility that it was all fated to happen and Celestia might have somehow known that she could rely on that without even having to know the exact details. If so, the trope would be {{subverted}} at much length.
** In the episode "Daring Don't", the character of Daring Do seems to rely on this. She wanted to enter the Fortress of Talicon so she could remove the rings that were protecting the temple, causing it to collapse. Dialogue at the climax indicates that her "plan all along" was to get captured by the villain Ahuizotl so he would take her to his fortress. The only problem is, it was Rainbow Dash's entirely unpremeditated involvement that ended up getting her captured in the first place. In fact, at the moment that happened, Daring was trying as hard as she could to ''not'' get captured, making Rainbow's later comment, "You did it on purpose?" even more unfathomable.
* Deconstructed in ''WesternAnimation/YoungJustice''. Nightwing starts a complicated scheme to infiltrate [[LegionOfDoom The Light]] by sending in Aqualad and Artemis as moles. This plan will require the moles to commit genuinely villainous acts to maintain their cover, and most of Nightwing's team must be kept in the dark about the plan, meaning that they will be unaware that two of their greatest enemies are secretly allies. These two facets of ThePlan eventually cause the situation to spin wildly out of Nightwing's control, and Kid Flash [[WhatTheHellHero calls him out]] for putting his allies at risk with a plan that had too many variables.
* ''WesternAnimation/BatmanTheAnimatedSeries'': As meticulous as the Clock King is, there is a LOT that could go wrong with his plans.
* Canaletto in ''[[WesternAnimation/ObanStarRacers Oban Star Racers]]'' [[spoiler: Arranged for the death of the mother of the right girl]] i.e. Eva, so that she would be emotionally scarred and chase after her father off-world. [[spoiler: Then he injured the main pilot to make her the only remaining pilot who would then would have to win a VERY competitive race, and relied on her prior emotional scarring so that she would reject the grand prize at the end and he could claim it for himself.]] Ironically, the only point at which he hits a bump is not when any one of these chance events fails but when [[spoiler: Sul]] changed the flow of destiny. The only thing that helps this go down easier is that he's implied to be able to see the future and manipulate certain events.
* In the climax of Disney's ''Disney/Aladdin'', Aladdin tricks EvilSorcerer Jafar by pointing out to him that he's still not as powerful as the Genie who gave him his power in the first place. This leads to Jafar wishing to become "an all-powerful genie", which is a bad idea because Genies are naturally enslaved beings bound to serve the wishes of their master, which gets Jafar stuck in a magic lamp for 10 thousand years. Except this whole plan would have backfired spectacularly, had Jafar just wished to be "more powerful than the Genie", which was an equally likely reaction to Aladdin's remark.
[[/folder]]

[[folder:Real Life]]
* According to some historians, UsefulNotes/AdolfHitler. He is supposed to have had an exact 'blueprint for aggression' before coming to power. More recent interpretations tend to portray Hitler as an often brilliant opportunist instead, who seized opportunities others provided and got by with [[IndyPloy Indy Ploys]]. [[UsefulNotes/WorldWarII It didn't end so well.]] A third common theory is that he was trying to do this trope and did so badly, which is why leaders on both sides saw him as a threat to his own plans.
* Admiral Yamamoto's plan for the Battle of Midway was supposed to be a Gambit Roulette that involved splitting his forces into seven different groups across the entire Pacific to defeat the American carrier fleet. A simpler idea like "Put all my ships in one fleet, sail in to attack Midway. The Americans don't have enough ships to stop such a fleet, so if they do force a battle, I destroy their fleet. If they don't, I conquer Midway," would have been a pretty good XanatosGambit. Yamamoto's roulette plan ended in a spectacular failure when American codebreakers figured out key details of his plan. Because his ships were split up into many groups, they couldn't support each other, leading to many ships not even seeing action; this was especially damaging since the escort cruisers with Yamamoto's scout planes were all assigned to a battleship taskforce which was not in position to scout for the carrier taskforce. Some of the more ridiculous elements, like the "diversionary" attack on Alaska (which contradicted the entire point of the operation and served only to weaken the main force), were imposed by Yamamoto's superiors.
* A certain screenwriter, presumably just to get attention, claimed that a particularly ludicrous Roulette was performed against him by 20th Century Fox. In summary, he alleged that a script of his was stolen by Fox, who then gave it to Creator/AlanMoore to be turned into a comic (''TheLeagueOfExtraordinaryGentlemen'') specifically so it could be filmed without people guessing its true source. The resulting FrivolousLawsuit treated Moore, who had done nothing wrong, so badly that he chose to cut all ties with the film industry.
* There's an UrbanLegend that on his death in 1966, WaltDisney left a series of films dictating in detail exactly how every aspect of Walt Disney Productions was to progress for the next twenty years -- films ''directly addressed'' to the various members of the staff, as if he were still in conference with all of them. As Snopes [[http://snopes.com/disney/wdco/dejaview.asp points out]], all you'd need do to demonstrate the fallacy of this legend is to look at the company's awful track record in the 1970s: if Walt was still dictating the direction of his studio from beyond the grave, then clearly they wouldn't be churning out movies like ''The Computer Wore Tennis Shoes'' and ''Now You See Him, Now You Don't''.
* Much of what UsefulNotes/NapoleonBonaparte did in his career:
** In the 1793 Siege of Toulon, while still a captain, he deliberately disobeyed his commanding officer's orders. Luckily, it was this disobedience that won the battle.
** While a general in Italy, he once put himself on the front line of the battlefield at the Arcole Bridge. The French lost the battle and Napoleon barely escaped with his life, but the move won him huge respect and loyalty from his soldiers.
** Any treasures captured on campaign were supposed to be either left alone or sent to the French government in Paris. Instead, Napoleon took a risk and disobeyed this rule, allowing his soldiers to keep their loot. This gave them a huge incentive to win battles and firmly won them to his cause.
** In 1799 Napoleon was invited to be part of a coup attempt. This coup was intended to be purely parliamentary with no military involvement - Napoleon's inclusion was merely intended to win the army round. When the initial attempt looked like failing, Napoleon just marched in with his soldiers and not only ensured the coup's success, but shifted himself from a minor plotter to the lead figure.
** In 1815, Napoleon escaped from his first exile on the island of Elba with the help of a few soldiers. When he met the first French troops sent to arrest him, he simply walked forward and dared them to shoot him. Not one did, and they (along with the rest of the French army) went over to Napoleon's side.
* {{Conspiracy Theorist}}s tend to use this trope in regards to their target to explain and justify their theories.
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http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/article_history.php?article=Main.GambitRoulette