History Main / GambitRoulette

5th Apr '18 1:34:07 PM KingLyger
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A convoluted plan that relies on events completely within the realm of chance yet comes off without a hitch. If your first reaction to seeing ThePlan unfold is "There is no way that you ''planned'' that!", then it's roulette.

Gambit roulette tries to make a character seem impressive but can break WillingSuspensionOfDisbelief. You ''really'' have to establish a character as TheChessmaster for them to be able to pull it off without arousing your audience's skepticism. If the character pulling the roulette is a god, a person with precognition, a hyper-advanced AI, or someone else with similar abilities interacting with mortals, it becomes ''somewhat'' more believable, but even then the [[WillingSuspensionOfDisbelief suspension of disbelief]] can be tenuous at best.

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A convoluted plan that relies on events completely within the realm of chance chance, yet comes goes off without a hitch. If your first reaction to seeing ThePlan unfold is "There is no way that you could have ''planned'' that!", that would happen!", then it's roulette.

a Gambit roulette Roulette.

A Gambit Roulette
tries to make a character seem impressive impressive, but can break WillingSuspensionOfDisbelief. WillingSuspensionOfDisbelief if not done correctly. You ''really'' have to establish a character as TheChessmaster for them to be able to pull it this off without arousing your audience's skepticism. If the character pulling the roulette is a god, a person with precognition, a hyper-advanced AI, or someone else with similar abilities interacting with mortals, it becomes ''somewhat'' more believable, but even then then, the [[WillingSuspensionOfDisbelief suspension of disbelief]] disbelief can be tenuous at best.



Note that complexity alone does not make a plan into roulette. A few separate plans may combine while individually making logical sense. When a dozen things are going on but the actual details of the plan aren't reliant on each item fortuitously fitting into place, then it is just a regular GambitPileup. If the character has plans for either outcome, not just the improbable one, it's XanatosGambit. If they ''admit'' that they [[ThrowItIn hadn't planned for certain occurrences, but took advantage of them as they came up]], that's XanatosSpeedChess. Contrast BatmanGambit which is based on the ''most likely'' outcome, based on the planner's knowledge of the people involved, rather than an improbable one. A roulette requires the planner to say that events that were literally ''impossible'' to predict were AllAccordingToPlan.

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Note that complexity alone does not make a plan into roulette. A few separate plans may combine while individually making logical sense. When a dozen things are going on but the actual details of the plan aren't reliant on each item fortuitously fitting into place, then it is just it's a regular GambitPileup. If the character has plans for either outcome, not just the improbable one, it's XanatosGambit. If they ''admit'' that they [[ThrowItIn hadn't planned for certain occurrences, but took advantage of them as they came up]], that's XanatosSpeedChess. Contrast BatmanGambit which is based on the ''most likely'' outcome, based on the planner's knowledge of the people involved, rather than an improbable one. A roulette requires the planner to say that events that were literally ''impossible'' to predict were AllAccordingToPlan.
6th Mar '18 10:41:02 AM Morgenthaler
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* Helmut Zemo's master plan in ''Film/CaptainAmericaCivilWar'' verges on a thin line between XanatosSpeedChess and this.
** His goal is very simple: [[spoiler:obtain proof the Winter Soldier killed Tony Stark's parents by any means possible, show Tony, cause internal strife and watch the Avengers fall apart as Steve and Tony fight. This simplicity allows him to both compensate when the plan doesn't turn out perfectly (like when the HYDRA agent refuses to give him information prompting him to go alternate route via Bucky) and take advantage of existing circumstances (he had nothing to do with the Sokovia Accords and just used it for distraction).]]
** Despite this, actual implementation of the plan comes dangerously close to GambitRoulette. [[spoiler:Fortunately for Zemo, Sokovia Accords, an event that divided Avengers in two camps and greatly boosted tensions between Tony and Steve just had to happen at the time when he was going to cause that tension himself. Also, it happened right at the moment when Tony's mental stability had been deteriorated by a combination of guilt over his actions in ''Film/AvengersAgeOfUltron,'' breakup with Pepper, tensions with Secretary Ross, and the near-fatal injury and paralysis of his best friend Jim Rhodes. If either of these factors were not present, consequences of revealing the information to Tony would be ''far'' less severe and if neither happened, Tony and Steve could just talk it through. Instead, pretty much all unrelated events in the movie make Zemo's task far easier to accomplish. Additionally, Zemo's plans would've most likely failed had Captain America not escaped with Bucky, or had he not been apprehended by Iron Man's forces during the airport fight. Furthermore, numerous factors led to Iron Man, Captain America and Winter Soldier being the only heroes present in Siberia to confront Zemo. The success of Zemo's plan would've most certainly been compromised if more heroes other than those three had made it to the final act.]]

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* ** Helmut Zemo's master plan in ''Film/CaptainAmericaCivilWar'' verges on a thin line between XanatosSpeedChess and this.
** *** His goal is very simple: [[spoiler:obtain proof the Winter Soldier killed Tony Stark's parents by any means possible, show Tony, cause internal strife and watch the Avengers fall apart as Steve and Tony fight. This simplicity allows him to both compensate when the plan doesn't turn out perfectly (like when the HYDRA agent refuses to give him information prompting him to go alternate route via Bucky) and take advantage of existing circumstances (he had nothing to do with the Sokovia Accords and just used it for distraction).]]
** *** Despite this, actual implementation of the plan comes dangerously close to GambitRoulette. [[spoiler:Fortunately for Zemo, Sokovia Accords, an event that divided Avengers in two camps and greatly boosted tensions between Tony and Steve just had to happen at the time when he was going to cause that tension himself. Also, it happened right at the moment when Tony's mental stability had been deteriorated by a combination of guilt over his actions in ''Film/AvengersAgeOfUltron,'' breakup with Pepper, tensions with Secretary Ross, and the near-fatal injury and paralysis of his best friend Jim Rhodes. If either of these factors were not present, consequences of revealing the information to Tony would be ''far'' less severe and if neither happened, Tony and Steve could just talk it through. Instead, pretty much all unrelated events in the movie make Zemo's task far easier to accomplish. Additionally, Zemo's plans would've most likely failed had Captain America not escaped with Bucky, or had he not been apprehended by Iron Man's forces during the airport fight. Furthermore, numerous factors led to Iron Man, Captain America and Winter Soldier being the only heroes present in Siberia to confront Zemo. The success of Zemo's plan would've most certainly been compromised if more heroes other than those three had made it to the final act.]]
3rd Mar '18 6:22:19 PM lluewhyn
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Added DiffLines:

** To be fair, the movie lampshades this a bit in the final scene when you see the guest invitations on the table requesting the presence of the guests for when Nicholas arrives, and it shows something like an approximate window of fifteen minutes of time (presumably, the invitations were sent out days or weeks in advance). The movie's basically winking and saying "yep, this is pretty silly, just go with it.".
1st Mar '18 11:17:03 AM lluewhyn
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** Cersei's plot where she successfully killed her husband Robert could be considered this. Her plan was to have his squire indulge him with too much alcohol (that was extra-strength) so that he would be too inebriated to successfully hunt a boar and would run into a "hunting mishap" that would appear to be an accident. However, there were so many ways this could have not gone as planned: not finding a boar, King Robert passing out first, other members of the hunting party intervening, etc. This would be fine if it was just one of Cersei's schemes to increase the chances of King Robert getting himself killed innocently (like her ploy to have him enter the Melee), but subsequent conversations reveal that she fully anticipated that he would die to a boar during this outing, even refusing to flee King's Landing and Ned Stark's accusations as she "knows" that Robert won't be coming back to do anything about them. So, she was essentially risking her head by staying at court on the chance that a drunk Robert would get himself killed while hunting.

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** Cersei's plot where she successfully killed her husband Robert could be considered this. Her plan was to have his squire indulge him with too much alcohol (that was extra-strength) so that he would be too inebriated to successfully hunt a boar and would run into a "hunting mishap" that would appear to be an accident. However, there were so many ways this could have not gone as planned: not finding a boar, King Robert passing out first, other members of the hunting party intervening, etc. This would be fine if it was just one of Cersei's schemes to increase the chances of King Robert getting himself killed innocently (like her ploy to have him enter the Melee), but subsequent conversations reveal that she fully anticipated that he would die to a boar during this outing, even refusing to flee King's Landing and Ned Stark's accusations as she "knows" that Robert won't be coming back to do anything about them. So, she was essentially risking her head by staying at court on the chance that a drunk Robert would get himself killed while hunting. To top it all off, Robert was initially hunting a ''white hart'': the hunt for the boar was done as a spur of the moment consolation prize for losing track of the hart.
25th Feb '18 4:27:17 AM SayaAensland
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** Despite this, actual implementation of the plan comes dangerously close to GambitRoulette. [[spoiler:Fortunately for Zemo, Sokovia Accords, an event that divided Avengers in two camps and greatly boosted tensions between Tony and Steve just had to happen at the time when he was going to cause that tension himself. Also, it happened right at the moment when Tony's mental stability had been deteriorated by a combination of guilt over his actions in ''Film/AvengersAgeOfUltron,'' breakup with Pepper, tensions with Secretary Ross, and the near-fatal injury and paralysis of his best friend Jim Rhodes. If either of these factors were not present, consequences of revealing the information to Tony would be ''far'' less severe and if neither happened, Tony and Steve could just talk it through. Instead, pretty much all unrelated events in the movie make Zemo's task far easier to accomplish. Additionally, Zemo's plans would've most likely failed had Captain America not escaped with Bucky, or had he not been apprehended by Iron Man's forces during the airport fight. Furthermore, numerous factors led to Iron Man, Captain America and Winter Soldier being the only heroes present in Siberia to confront Zemo. The success of Zemo's plan would've most certainly been compromised if more heroes other than those three had made it to the final act.
]]

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** Despite this, actual implementation of the plan comes dangerously close to GambitRoulette. [[spoiler:Fortunately for Zemo, Sokovia Accords, an event that divided Avengers in two camps and greatly boosted tensions between Tony and Steve just had to happen at the time when he was going to cause that tension himself. Also, it happened right at the moment when Tony's mental stability had been deteriorated by a combination of guilt over his actions in ''Film/AvengersAgeOfUltron,'' breakup with Pepper, tensions with Secretary Ross, and the near-fatal injury and paralysis of his best friend Jim Rhodes. If either of these factors were not present, consequences of revealing the information to Tony would be ''far'' less severe and if neither happened, Tony and Steve could just talk it through. Instead, pretty much all unrelated events in the movie make Zemo's task far easier to accomplish. Additionally, Zemo's plans would've most likely failed had Captain America not escaped with Bucky, or had he not been apprehended by Iron Man's forces during the airport fight. Furthermore, numerous factors led to Iron Man, Captain America and Winter Soldier being the only heroes present in Siberia to confront Zemo. The success of Zemo's plan would've most certainly been compromised if more heroes other than those three had made it to the final act.
act.]]
18th Feb '18 9:44:03 PM A.P.D.
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** Despite this, actual implementation of the plan comes dangerously close to GambitRoulette. [[spoiler:Fortunately for Zemo, Sokovia Accords, an event that divided Avengers in two camps and greatly boosted tensions between Tony and Steve just had to happen at the time when he was going to cause that tension himself. Also, it happened right at the moment when Tony developed depression caused by combination of guilt over his actions in ''Film/AvengersAgeOfUltron,'' breakup with Pepper and reliving last memory of his parents as part of a science project. If either of these factors were not present, consequences of revealing the information to Tony would be ''far'' less severe and if neither happened, Tony and Steve could just talk it through. Instead, pretty much all unrelated events in the movie make Zemo's task far easier to accomplish.]]

to:

** Despite this, actual implementation of the plan comes dangerously close to GambitRoulette. [[spoiler:Fortunately for Zemo, Sokovia Accords, an event that divided Avengers in two camps and greatly boosted tensions between Tony and Steve just had to happen at the time when he was going to cause that tension himself. Also, it happened right at the moment when Tony developed depression caused Tony's mental stability had been deteriorated by a combination of guilt over his actions in ''Film/AvengersAgeOfUltron,'' breakup with Pepper Pepper, tensions with Secretary Ross, and reliving last memory the near-fatal injury and paralysis of his parents as part of a science project.best friend Jim Rhodes. If either of these factors were not present, consequences of revealing the information to Tony would be ''far'' less severe and if neither happened, Tony and Steve could just talk it through. Instead, pretty much all unrelated events in the movie make Zemo's task far easier to accomplish. Additionally, Zemo's plans would've most likely failed had Captain America not escaped with Bucky, or had he not been apprehended by Iron Man's forces during the airport fight. Furthermore, numerous factors led to Iron Man, Captain America and Winter Soldier being the only heroes present in Siberia to confront Zemo. The success of Zemo's plan would've most certainly been compromised if more heroes other than those three had made it to the final act.
]]
26th Jan '18 11:12:14 PM ImpudentInfidel
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* In ''VideoGame/JadeEmpire'', Master Sun Li, the Glorious Strategist, pulls off a twenty year Gambit Roulette to put himself in power by training the main character so that only he knows how to kill him/her, yet keeping him/her loyal, letting him/her kill the emperor after baiting him/her to that point, and then killing the main character and taking the throne. If you replay the game you can see all the points where he was manipulating things. Also lampshaded by the Spirit Monk while talking to the soldier in Tien's Landing when s/he comments that "he couldn't possibly have known that the flyer was going to crash here" (or something to that effect).

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* In ''VideoGame/JadeEmpire'', Master Sun Li, the Glorious Strategist, pulls off a twenty year Gambit Roulette to put himself in power by training the main character so that only he knows how to kill him/her, yet keeping him/her loyal, letting him/her kill the emperor after baiting him/her to that point, and then killing the main character and taking the throne. If you replay the game you can see all the points where he was manipulating things. Also lampshaded by the Spirit Monk while talking to the soldier in Tien's Landing when s/he comments that "he couldn't possibly have known that the flyer was going to crash here" (or something to that effect).effect); she'll reply you would have had to go there to pick up her PlotCoupon eventually anyway.
26th Jan '18 10:51:57 PM ImpudentInfidel
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** The plan of the Silence over series 5 and 6 of the new ''Series/DoctorWho'' is a really amazingly convoluted one. Much of the plan is coherent. YMMV if this is a gambit rather than a roulette.

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** The plan of the Silence over series 5 and 6 of the new ''Series/DoctorWho'' is a really amazingly convoluted one. Much of the plan is coherent. YMMV if this is a gambit rather than a roulette. [[spoiler: It ultimately fails spectacularly thanks to a paradox built into the plan causing the very events it tried to prevent.]]
26th Jan '18 10:32:41 PM ImpudentInfidel
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* At the end of the ''Literature/{{Discworld}}'' novel ''Discworld/{{Jingo}}'', Lord Vetinari discusses his BatmanGambit with Vimes, making a big deal out of the fact that he managed to stop the war before too many people were killed ("Bought and sold? Perhaps. But not, I think, needlessly spent"). Except that we already know that there's a parallel universe where the Klatchians took Ankh-Morpork and the entire Watch was killed ''before'' he unleashed his Gambit, and the difference was a decision by Vimes that could have gone either way and that Lord V wasn't in a position to know anything about.
23rd Jan '18 7:39:24 PM G-Editor
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* In the infamous ''WesternAnimation/SouthPark'' episode "Scott Tenorman Must Die", Cartman devises an extremely intricate plan to exact revenge on Scott Tenorman for cheating him out of $16.12. The plan relies on several red herrings and on Stan and Kyle's betrayal and culminates with Scott eating chili that is made of his own parents' ground-up remains and subsequently crying in front of his favorite band, Radiohead, who then mock him for being a "crybaby".
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http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/article_history.php?article=Main.GambitRoulette